tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 fyi, 12z gfs ens are a good bit east of the op, almost looks like ukie track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 looks like a sub 996 on jers coast at hr 144, coming from delmrva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 hr 150 its 50 miles south of the tip of li Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 12z GFS ensemble mean is really east of the op and it looks good. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep12144.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12156.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 heres the hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 i would like to see what a lot of those members do. I wonder if they are building the 50/50 low stronger and weakening the sw coming out of the plains, indiv ens will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 It seems like all the ensemble means are in agreement with the coastal idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:00 PM, Snow88 said: It seems like all the ensemble means are in agreement with the coastal idea. you need to see the indiv Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:01 PM, tombo82685 said: you need to see the indiv I know that but I am just saying that the Euro ensemble mean, GFS ensemble mean and the GGEM ensemble mean agrees on the track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:49 PM, tombo82685 said: it didnt last night when the ukie showed that track also. I think the euro was even further nw lol Operational no...ensemble means of the ECM -yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:02 PM, Snow88 said: I know that but I am just saying that the Euro ensemble mean, GFS ensemble mean and the GGEM ensemble mean agrees on the track. only issue is we have no cold air lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 4:43 PM, Snow88 said: It's always 10 days away. Except when its a cutter, then it has permission to move past fantasy land! How crazy is that!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:03 PM, tombo82685 said: only issue is we have no cold air lol There is a lot of cold air coming down on the ensembles when the storm comes up the coast. That's why the track is much further east than the op run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:03 PM, tombo82685 said: only issue is we have no cold air lol Once that low gets cranking on the coast, couldn't we see a change to snow at the end when it stats pulling down the cold air? Ala Christmas 2002? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:05 PM, jrodd321 said: Once that low gets cranking on the coast, couldn't we see a change to snow at the end when it stats pulling down the cold air? Ala Christmas 2002? yes that can happen for it to pull the cold air in, but can we atleast get a coastal track first from an op model, other than its ens lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:05 PM, jrodd321 said: Once that low gets cranking on the coast, couldn't we see a change to snow at the end when it stats pulling down the cold air? Ala Christmas 2002? no John you have it all wrong. the storm will just create it's own cold air good trends today with the ukie and gfs ensembles all east. if I was at home i'd pretty much given up but I think lancaster has a decent shot of some good snows if the coastal hugger verifies. the biggest issue remains the cold air though...it looks to pull in some cooler 850's on the ensembles but those are useless without knowing what the 2m temps are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:02 PM, Snow88 said: I know that but I am just saying that the Euro ensemble mean, GFS ensemble mean and the GGEM ensemble mean agrees on the track. Ensemble means can be extremely deceiving...6 members over Chicago and 6 members over Bermuda and you have a benchmark track on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:11 PM, The Iceman said: no John you have it all wrong. the storm will just create it's own cold air good trends today with the ukie and gfs ensembles all east. if I was at home i'd pretty much given up but I think lancaster has a decent shot of some good snows if the coastal hugger verifies. the biggest issue remains the cold air though...it looks to pull in some cooler 850's on the ensembles but those are useless without knowing what the 2m temps are. I wish this would verify. On 12/7/2010 at 5:11 PM, earthlight said: Ensemble means can be extremely deceiving...6 members over Chicago and 6 members over Bermuda and you have a benchmark track on the mean. I know it can. I am just pointing out what the model says. At least the Euro ensemble mean and the GGEM ensemble mean are on the GFS ensemble's side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 What's GGEM look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:15 PM, algreek3 said: What's GGEM look like? I think the weenies broke it. It's not updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:11 PM, earthlight said: Ensemble means can be extremely deceiving...6 members over Chicago and 6 members over Bermuda and you have a benchmark track on the mean. that is correct, however; the likelihood that is the case isn't very high just due to the fact there really is no shot of this going straight out to sea. the individuals should be interesting for sure, but i think that most would of had to shift east somewhat for the mean to be where it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:11 PM, earthlight said: Ensemble means can be extremely deceiving...6 members over Chicago and 6 members over Bermuda and you have a benchmark track on the mean. LOL. Very true, but if there is that much uncertainty, then anything is possible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-newark/cold-continues-rest-of-the-week-relaxes-this-weekend-followed-by-a-major-storm Not much you guys don't already know about the upcoming storm here, but my opinion's included fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 canadians must be drunk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 here are the gfs indiv ens, some interesting solutions http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSPRSNE_12z/ensprsloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:35 PM, tombo82685 said: here are the gfs indiv ens, some interesting solutions http://www.meteo.psu...rsloopmref.html based on my first glance, alot of them either rip it thru PA, or a coastal hugger. Not a wide deviation so the mean is somewhat credible imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 7, 2010 Author Share Posted December 7, 2010 Three of them shifted east, that's it. P003 has been showing an east coast snowstorm for days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:40 PM, earthlight said: Three of them shifted east, that's it. P003 has been showing an east coast snowstorm for days now. Man the only way to describe most of these as far as PHI/NJ/NYC goes is UGLY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 7, 2010 Share Posted December 7, 2010 On 12/7/2010 at 5:50 PM, LakeEffectKing said: was just going to post this, granted still cuts, but pretty far east compared to 0z, further look maybe its the same track just slower. Though it is a lot further south to begin with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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