Hurricane Katia

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

That is irrelevant. I was implying that tornadoes were possible and was trying to emphasize that fact even though my choice of words was probably poor. It all goes back to you downplaying everything, you still don't believe there was a legitimate tornado threat from Irene even though multiple tornado warnings were issues and there was F0 damage in parts of New Jersey and Delaware.

If someone says 12 will become a major hurricane because a polar bear fell off of an iceberg in the Arctic... They may get the fact that 12 became a major hurricane correct, but their reasoning was ridiculously incorrect.

That's how both your tornado post and the current 12z Euro coastal argument is. Yeah 12 may become a SE threat, but it isn't because of the current Euro.

[Riptide]

I posted SPC graphics showing all the mesos and posted about tornadoes multiple times...you're revising history...another hallmark of a really bad poster.

you also thought that tornadoes would "mix down" because of heavy rains with Irene.

[phlwx]

I need to start reading more weenie blogs...that's some good stuff.

He puts his trust in the NOGAPS. That's all you need to know.

[donsutherland1]

No one likes to post in the tropical threads because some members and the clique club like to obsess and troll over minor details. The general vibe from all of this is that it is threatening some land area in the future. Nonetheless, reasoning and insights from the mets is appreciated because I would of definitely envisioned a landfalling Conus hurricane after looking at the 12z Euro U/L pattern. I understand that you want everything to be factual but try not to downplay the threat.

I believe there seems to be some misunderstanding.

First, given model uncertainties, there is potentially some threat to the East Coast (probably greater than the climatological norm given TD 12's region of origin/historical statistics based on such storms). Climatology suggests recurvature, but some Cape Verde systems do eventually make U.S. landfall.

Second, the 12z ECMWF does appear to turn TD 12 and what would likely be Katia NNW'd toward recurvature between 234 and 240 hours in time to avoid the U.S. However, the position where it makes the turn is to the south and west of the Euro's 0z run. Whether that is the start of a trend toward a greater U.S. threat remains to be seen. A lot can change between now and 7-10 days from now.

[dtk]

at 500mb it scored well...doesn't make it "the best performing long range model".

stop posting...please.

and even then...it was essentially in 3rd place last summer (behind the EC, and then GFS); at least according to the quick glance at our verification/stats archive.

[CooL]

3 things i noticed in regards to future Katia.

1. The bermuda high is centered pretty far to the north, which should definitely help Katia gain some Latitude over the next 5 days, hopefully sparing the islands. But its too early to say the latter with certainty.

2. Some dry air may help to keep her weaker for longer

3. The PNA on the gfs and euro looks quite strong over the western u.s, which almost guarantees a trough over the eastern U.S. Could easily change tho

so i think its worth watching. We saw with Earl last year how models kept trending west and west so we'll see

[atownwxwatcher]

i see you still bring the lolz.

"We are 100% confident in this system becoming a major hurricane. We are also 100% confident on the track thru ten days."

http://theweathergod...n-12-track.html

I am not sure what your point is? I came out with the track before NHC issued their track.

Not to different in thinking other then their track goes to 5 days and I took mine out to ten days... The difference lies in my thinking is that it will head more west longer before starting to head to the west north west. Also shear "potentially" could keep the system weaker in the more short term and with the abnormally strong subtropical ridge would help to induce a more west track.

ECM is pretty close with its ending location at day 9 to what i posted last night at 4 AM...

Even though some people disrespect DT , he apparently agrees with my interpretation of the ECM taking future KATIA into the SE Coast. Despite that agreement from a pro met my belief is that this is still to far out and that the models will change..so I am not going to say its going to be an east coast threat or a bermuda threat because the reality is it could be either or it could be in between the two locations.

So post the link all you want and the map all you want because it essentially echo's the thoughts of guidance & pro mets!

[k***]

and even then...it was essentially in 3rd place last summer (behind the EC, and then GFS); at least according to the quick glance at our verification/stats archive.

If it really were all that great you'd see it weighted more in forecasts. I rarely even see it mentioned as anything but another piece of confirmatory evidence when discussing a consensus.

[k***]

I am not sure what your point is? I came out with the track before NHC issued their track.

Not to different in thinking other then their track goes to 5 days and I took mine out to ten days... The difference lies in my thinking is that it will head more west longer before starting to head to the west north west. Also shear "potentially" could keep the system weaker in the more short term and with the abnormally strong subtropical ridge would help to induce a more west track.

ECM is pretty close with its ending location at day 9 to what i posted last night at 4 AM...

Even though some people disrespect DT , he apparently agrees with my interpretation of the ECM taking future KATIA into the SE Coast. Despite that agreement from a pro met my belief is that this is still to far out and that the models will change..so I am not going to say its going to be an east coast threat or a bermuda threat because the reality is it could be either or it could be in between the two locations.

So post the link all you want and the map all you want because it essentially echo's the thoughts of guidance & pro mets!

Dude, nothing is 100%. Especially if DT agrees with you. I love that you put out a track before the NHC and think its some sort of coup.

[baroclinic_instability]

I am not sure what your point is? I came out with the track before NHC issued their track.

Not to different in thinking other then their track goes to 5 days and I took mine out to ten days... The difference lies in my thinking is that it will head more west longer before starting to head to the west north west. Also shear "potentially" could keep the system weaker in the more short term and with the abnormally strong subtropical ridge would help to induce a more west track.

ECM is pretty close with its ending location at day 9 to what i posted last night at 4 AM...

Even though some people disrespect DT , he apparently agrees with my interpretation of the ECM taking future KATIA into the SE Coast. Despite that agreement from a pro met my belief is that this is still to far out and that the models will change..so I am not going to say its going to be an east coast threat or a bermuda threat because the reality is it could be either or it could be in between the two locations.

So post the link all you want and the map all you want because it essentially echo's the thoughts of guidance & pro mets!

This makes no sense.

"We posted this last night around 4:30 AM on our facebook page. We are 100% confident in this system becoming a major hurricane. We are also 100% confident on the track thru ten days. The question then becomes whether this is a Bermuda threat or a East Coast threat. That answer is not known at this point and time as it is to early."

[jpeters3]

TD 12 is going to be a close on on the models I have looked. The Euro models are take this very close. Defiantly a close call. Going to be Major hurricane at that. Will see. I think TD will fish.

The atmosphere is a chaotic system. Small observational uncertainties upstream from the areas currently in question (over the pacific ocean, for instance) may result in dramatic deviations in the track of tropical systems in future model solutions.

Does this have the potential to be a landfalling system? Yes, this outcome cannot be ruled out.

I would say climatology weighs significantly over medium-long range model solutions at this point for a cape verde system so far out, even if a solution is very suggestive of landfall (and I wouldn't even argue that long range solutions are VERY suggestive of a landfall). Therefore, the probability of a US landfall is probably below 50%. The probability of it even being a "close call" is probably below 50% percent. Saying these things with certainty, such as "it is going to be a close call" is unsubstantiated.

It does appear that there is a decent probability of this becoming a major hurricane, based on model output over shorter tim scales.

So, does this warrant watching - well yes, they all do ;-)

It is really too early to make any sort of educated speculation regarding landfall.

Please do not argue if you don't know what you are talking about.

[QVectorman]

I believe there seems to be some misunderstanding.

First, given model uncertainties, there is potentially some threat to the East Coast (probably greater than the climatological norm given TD 12's region of origin/historical statistics based on such storms). Climatology suggests recurvature, but some Cape Verde systems do eventually make U.S. landfall.

Second, the 12z ECMWF does appear to turn TD 12 and what would likely be Katia NNW'd toward recurvature between 234 and 240 hours in time to avoid the U.S. However, the position where it makes the turn is to the south and west of the Euro's 0z run. Whether that is the start of a trend toward a greater U.S. threat remains to be seen. A lot can change between now and 7-10 days from now.

I agree, the trend is what I'm interested it, my bench mark for watching this as a threat to the US is 60W, 20N. Which the Euro achieves at 144hr. Alot can happen after it that, go due north etc. but I feel if it makes it to 60,20 it at least has a chance to do something. Granted it's only 1 run and 240 hrs out; but we are in a weather forum, isn't this what we are here for, especially in the doldrums of summer. I'm not going to make any forecasts off this but for now it's fun to watch and watch how the models progress with it until it gets into a reasonable time frame.Until then Thanks for the input Don. Always enjoy your thoughts!

[Shawn]

If it really were all that great you'd see it weighted more in forecasts. I rarely even see it mentioned as anything but another piece of confirmatory evidence when discussing a consensus.

The UKMET is not a bad model at all. It tends to mess up closer to an event in the little time I've watched it compared to other models but isn't the Euro also guilty of that also when the Local models start to get into their best hours of less than 192? It performs pretty well in Winter from what I have seen. Does anyone have a link to a page with all the models along with their track/speed/pressure forecasts and how they all played out? Or is it mostly just statistical type data out there?

[jpeters3]

I am not sure what your point is? I came out with the track before NHC issued their track.

Not to different in thinking other then their track goes to 5 days and I took mine out to ten days... The difference lies in my thinking is that it will head more west longer before starting to head to the west north west. Also shear "potentially" could keep the system weaker in the more short term and with the abnormally strong subtropical ridge would help to induce a more west track.

ECM is pretty close with its ending location at day 9 to what i posted last night at 4 AM...

Even though some people disrespect DT , he apparently agrees with my interpretation of the ECM taking future KATIA into the SE Coast. Despite that agreement from a pro met my belief is that this is still to far out and that the models will change..so I am not going to say its going to be an east coast threat or a bermuda threat because the reality is it could be either or it could be in between the two locations.

So post the link all you want and the map all you want because it essentially echo's the thoughts of guidance & pro mets!

So their 5 day track is in line with NHC... that still doesn't hold any credence to their 10 day track, or their idiotic 100% confidence statements. Not all pro mets know what they are talking about.

[dtk]

The atmosphere is a chaotic system. Small observational uncertainties upstream from the areas currently in question (over the pacific ocean, for instance) may result in dramatic deviations in the track of tropical systems in future model solutions.

And just to expand a little bit more....even if we had exact, 100% perfect global initial conditions, we still couldn't do a very good job of forecasting something 10 days in advance because of model imperfections (discretization in time and space, resolution limitations, parameterizations, and the list goes on and on). But your point is a good one and worth keeping in mind...

[k***]

So their 5 day track is in line with NHC... that still doesn't hold any credence to their 10 day track, or their idiotic 100% confidence statements. Not all pro mets know what they are talking about.

That's not a promet we are talking about...that's attownwxwatcher himself

[Chicago Storm]

I am not sure what your point is? I came out with the track before NHC issued their track.

Not to different in thinking other then their track goes to 5 days and I took mine out to ten days... The difference lies in my thinking is that it will head more west longer before starting to head to the west north west. Also shear "potentially" could keep the system weaker in the more short term and with the abnormally strong subtropical ridge would help to induce a more west track.

ECM is pretty close with its ending location at day 9 to what i posted last night at 4 AM...

Even though some people disrespect DT , he apparently agrees with my interpretation of the ECM taking future KATIA into the SE Coast. Despite that agreement from a pro met my belief is that this is still to far out and that the models will change..so I am not going to say its going to be an east coast threat or a bermuda threat because the reality is it could be either or it could be in between the two locations.

So post the link all you want and the map all you want because it essentially echo's the thoughts of guidance & pro mets!

the fact that you have "100% confidence" is what's lol worthy, given your forecasting "skills".

quoting DT to back yourself up was just icing on the cake.

[jpeters3]

That's not a promet we are talking about...that's attownwxwatcher himself

lol

[dtk]

The UKMET is not a bad model at all. It tends to mess up closer to an event in the little time I've watched it compared to other models but isn't the Euro also guilty of that also when the Local models start to get into their best hours of less than 192? It performs pretty well in Winter from what I have seen. Does anyone have a link to a page with all the models along with their track/speed/pressure forecasts and how they all played out? Or is it mostly just statistical type data out there?

Nobody said it was a "bad model" (in fact, for some things [not everything] it is probably the 2nd best model out there next to the EC)...though I think in general it is not considered a great model for tropical prediction (I've seen the evidence of this from past seasons, but haven't seen any stats from this season). Having said that, I'm pretty sure it is considered good enough to include in some of the automated consensus products.

[pojrzsho]

This makes no sense.

"We posted this last night around 4:30 AM on our facebook page. We are 100% confident in this system becoming a major hurricane. We are also 100% confident on the track thru ten days. The question then becomes whether this is a Bermuda threat or a East Coast threat. That answer is not known at this point and time as it is to early."

What doesn't make sense? Feels certain major H, Certain of 10 day track. Not certain where after that. That was easy. Right or wrong it makes perfect sense.

[baroclinic_instability]

What doesn't make sense? Feels certain major H, Certain of 10 day track. Not certain where after that. That was easy. Right or wrong it makes perfect sense.

100% confidence makes "no sense". You completely missed the point.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

What doesn't make sense? Feels certain major H, Certain of 10 day track. Not certain where after that. That was easy. Right or wrong it makes perfect sense.

If they are "certain" of a ten day track, they should be "certain" whether or not it is an east coast or Bermuda threat since by day ten it will be quite clear which direction it is headed.

[wx.1028]

What doesn't make sense? Feels certain major H, Certain of 10 day track. Not certain where after that. That was easy. Right or wrong it makes perfect sense.

Because if they`re 100% confident in the track, why wouldnt they know if it were a bermuda hit or an east coast hit ?

[WishingForWarmWeather]

Okay, so, just so I can start to understand a bit better... what is the major difference between Irene and TD12, in regards to an EC threat? What were the models so interested in with Irene that showed a significant threat so far out, that this TD does not seem to have? Is it the Bermuda high, and where it is positioned? Thanks in advance for any answers and guidance in assisting me to further understand what goes on in the long-range forecasting. It's much appreciated.

[baroclinic_instability]

If they are "certain" of a ten day track, they should be "certain" whether or not it is an east coast or Bermuda threat since by day ten it will be quite clear which direction it is headed.

Because if they`re 100% confident in the track, why wouldnt they know if it were a bermuda hit or an east coast hit ?

To be fair and to clear up confusion, the track on his webpage only goes out ten days. He is referencing "100 %" confidence on that track. That track does not make it to Bermuda or the EC within day 10.

Ok enough on his forecast...continue with the rest of the discussion.

[pojrzsho]

Ok. Got it. So too strong of confidence. How many days are you guys confident? In latest update NHC they favor the Euro FWIW.

[phil882]

So, when does the discussion about the TD begin and all the bickering end?

Well right now we can see that TD12 has a fairly well defined circulation, but its displaced about a full degree east of the deeper convection due to easterly shear. That situation should gradually become less of a problem with time and it also seems like the system is far enough south that SAL influences are minimal at best, so all things still look good beyond the initial easterly shear for development.

[atownwxwatcher]

Because if they`re 100% confident in the track, why wouldnt they know if it were a bermuda hit or an east coast hit ?

Simple answer would be that it depends on timing AFTER that point. Depends on the speed and timing of the cold front and trough..

Personally I do not trust the GFS beyond 180 hrs and sometimes beyond 120 hours...

All guidance is essentially in agreement at 120 hrs out ..some differences on speed etc...Latest NHC is also leaning towards the ECM ..while i am leaning towards the ECM/ECM means..

Also if you look at the top ten analogs only 3 of them missed the US.. that does NOT give me 100% certainty on a USA east coast threat..especially considering a few of them became a GULF coast threat...

[Dunkman]

Okay, so, just so I can start to understand a bit better... what is the major difference between Irene and TD12, in regards to an EC threat? What were the models so interested in with Irene that showed a significant threat so far out, that this TD does not seem to have? Is it the Bermuda high, and where it is positioned? Thanks in advance for any answers and guidance in assisting me to further understand what goes on in the long-range forecasting. It's much appreciated.

The NHC initiated advisories on Irene at 58.5W. They initiated advisories on TD12 at 26.3W. That's a long way apart. I'm sure by the time Katia is approaching 60W we'll have a lot better idea of where she may go.

[k***]

Also if you look at the top ten analogs only 3 of them missed the US.. that does NOT give me 100% certainty on a USA east coast threat..especially considering a few of them became a GULF coast threat...

Can you link me to those top ten analogs?