Hurricane Katia

[atownwxwatcher]

From 216 Hrs to 240 hours if you open the images up in tabs side by side it would appear that Future Katia is on a NW tracking. You can also see that the STR is also building towards the west. We all know that this is subject to change but I do not think one can say with any certainty that it is "going to miss the east coast" if one extrapolates it out beyond 240 hrs. Just like one can not say with any certainty that this will be a "east coast threat". The potential is there but that is as far as it goes at this point and time. To speculate beyond is like being blindfolded and throwing a dart at a dartboard.

[wxsmwhrms]

It's moving due north from 228-240. I have 6 hour increments.

Thx, yeah, I deleted my post, saw that you clarified that while I was typing.

[am19psu]

but I do not think one can say with any certainty that it is "going to miss the east coast" if one extrapolates it out beyond 240 hrs.

Sure I can. That's what I get paid to do. Extrapolated modeled solutions don't mean anything, but this would be a fish on the 12z Euro verbatim. I don't see why pointing this out is causing people to argue with me. It is what it is.

This certainly has a chance to affect the US, but the 12z Euro does not support that claim.

[MarkSC]

Could you stop trying to mold every tropical cyclone as a vague threat to South Carolina? It's very transparent.

What are you talking about? I have already posted that this storm is more than likely a fish but also more likely than the average storm to strike the U.S. Don Sutherland posted stats to support that. I haven't said anything about a SC strike. BTW, I forecast Irene to strike NC well before many of the models pointed there, so take your insults elsewhere.

[phlwx]

Sure I can. That's what I get paid to do. Extrapolated modeled solutions don't mean anything, but this would be a fish on the 12z Euro verbatim. I don't see why pointing this out is causing people to argue with me. It is what it is.

This certainly has a chance to affect the US, but the 12z Euro does not support that claim.

The Euro for three straight runs has shown fish/Bermuda hit. This certainly isn't anything new.

[MarkSC]

Stop with this right now.

why? The UKMET was the best performing long range model last year.

[k***]

Seven pages into a TC thread about a TD that is thousands of miles from the mainland US and we already have the word Hugo in the thread. This thread is full of win.

Every CV "threat" is like this.

[wxsmwhrms]

Sure I can. That's what I get paid to do. Extrapolated modeled solutions don't mean anything, but this would be a fish on the 12z Euro verbatim. I don't see why pointing this out is causing people to argue with me. It is what it is.

This certainly has a chance to affect the US, but the 12z Euro does not support that claim.

I agree about not seeing why people are arguing. It's an extrapolation of a single operational model run at 240 hours of a TC that barely exists yet. Who cares? Even the trend doesn't mean that much yet - how many times did the EC "trend" on Irene before settling on a solution like 72 hours out. People need to get a grip.

[k***]

why? The UKMET was the best performing long range model last year.

at 500mb it scored well...doesn't make it "the best performing long range model".

stop posting...please.

[Hugo]

Seven pages into a TC thread about a TD that is thousands of miles from the mainland US and we already have the word Hugo in the thread. This thread is full of win.

I stick that word into a lot of threads.

Sorry.

[IsentropicLift]

I think some people are getting over excited at such a long term threat because the models did such a good job with regards to Irene. It was fairly clear early on that she would be a legit threat. We don't have that this time, the ridging over the western Atlantic is much more in question.

[Shawn]

At this point all this thread contains is speculation. Nobody knows what's going to happen and I respect everyone's opinion be it a fish, the NE, a Hugo like storm, Gulf, etc.

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

What are you talking about? I have already posted that this storm is more than likely a fish but also more likely than the average storm to strike the U.S. Don Sutherland posted stats to support that. I haven't said anything about a SC strike. BTW, I forecast Irene to strike NC well before many of the models pointed there, so take your insults elsewhere.

How many times did you compare Irene to Hugo, and now you are already comparing 12 to Hugo? This not to mention how much you were mentioning SC when it wasn't even under consideration. The problem with you is you always implicitly state it, and it is more transparent than a clean glass window.

[IsentropicLift]

at 500mb it scored well...doesn't make it "the best performing long range model".

stop posting...please.

track wise the Euro did the best with Irene once she got past Hispanolia. As far as surface pressures go, the EC was way too low, but Irene did end making landfall in NJ with a very low surface pressure for that lattitude.

[atownwxwatcher]

Sure I can. That's what I get paid to do. Extrapolated modeled solutions don't mean anything, but this would be a fish on the 12z Euro verbatim. I don't see why pointing this out is causing people to argue with me. It is what it is.

This certainly has a chance to affect the US, but the 12z Euro does not support that claim.

Well, at least one other pro met disagrees with you..so that is why i said no one can say with certainty.

Wxrisk.com the last sentance should read "and this allows Katia to come into the se coast ... MORE ON WEB SITE BY 430PM

It will be interesting to see whose perspective is correct .

[am19psu]

Well, at least one other pro met disagrees with you..so that is why i said no one can say with certainty.

Wxrisk.com the last sentance should read "and this allows Katia to come into the se coast ... MORE ON WEB SITE BY 430PM

It will be interesting to see whose perspective is correct .

LOLZ at posting DT's tropical analysis to refute mine

[yoda]

Well, at least one other pro met disagrees with you..so that is why i said no one can say with certainty.

Wxrisk.com the last sentance should read "and this allows Katia to come into the se coast ... MORE ON WEB SITE BY 430PM

It will be interesting to see whose perspective is correct .

Since its 925mb.... def has to be a Cat 4 or 5...

[Ed Lizard]

54 post hobbyists telling multiple degreed mets they are wrong, if TD 12 is the next Hugo, he deserves a specially colored member tag. Lets just give him a purple tag now.

[ezweather]

I'll add my two cents worth here. The Euro did a nice job showing the future track of Irene compared to the other models. I think the model did not get the inensity quite right. Now, with regard with what the Euro is showing with this depression, which looks to be Katia, it does show a low risk threat the East Coast and one I would say its something to monitor. We have to see if we are potentially having a pattern where there are more than one landfalling hurricanes along the East Coast. In 2005, Florida got hit four times. So, as far as I'm concerned we have to watch this closely the remainder of this tropical season.

Let's see how the rest of this week goes with this system. If more of the models come aboard, then definitely we'll have to raise that risk level up as we get to next weekend.

[Ed Lizard]

So instead of bickering about track and position 10 days away... anyone care to focus on the current situation? Looks to be battling some major shear right now. When is this forecast to lighten up?

CURRENTLY

THERE IS MODERATE TO STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE

SYSTEM AS EVIDENCED BY ITS APPEARANCE AND GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT. THE

SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS SHEAR WILL SOON LESSEN...WHICH

SHOULD ALLOW THE DEPRESSION TO STRENGTHEN. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY

That shear looks hostile, but note the lighter shear over the center, and the outflow. What looks like shear on a coarse map is probably outflow channels developing.

[WhiteoutWX]

That shear looks hostile, but note the lighter shear over the center, and the outflow. What looks like shear on a coarse map is probably outflow channels developing.

My bad on that one, was looking at the floater labeled 10l, which seems to be incorrectly positioned on the feature north of the depression. The depression itself actually looks fairly healthy.

[Chicago Storm]

Well, at least one other pro met disagrees with you..so that is why i said no one can say with certainty.

Wxrisk.com the last sentance should read "and this allows Katia to come into the se coast ... MORE ON WEB SITE BY 430PM

It will be interesting to see whose perspective is correct .

i see you still bring the lolz.

"We are 100% confident in this system becoming a major hurricane. We are also 100% confident on the track thru ten days."

http://theweathergod2010.blogspot.com/2011/08/tropical-depression-12-track.html

[Riptide]

looks north and east of the bahamas to me

No one likes to post in the tropical threads because some members and the clique club like to obsess and troll over minor details. The general vibe from all of this is that it is threatening some land area in the future. Nonetheless, reasoning and insights from the mets is appreciated because I would of definitely envisioned a landfalling Conus hurricane after looking at the 12z Euro U/L pattern. I understand that you want everything to be factual but try not to downplay the threat.

[k***]

i see you still bring the lolz.

"We are 100% confident in this system becoming a major hurricane. We are also 100% confident on the track thru ten days."

http://theweathergod...n-12-track.html

I need to start reading more weenie blogs...that's some good stuff.

[am19psu]

No one likes to post in the tropical threads because some members and the clique club like to obsess and troll over minor details. The general vibe from all of this is that it is threatening some land area in the future. Nonetheless, reasoning and insights from the mets is appreciated because I would of definitely envisioned a landfalling Conus hurricane after looking at the 12z Euro U/L pattern. I understand that you want everything to be factual but try not to downplay the threat.

Saying the 12z Euro supports a US landfall is NOT a minor detail.

[k***]

No one likes to post in the tropical threads because some members and the clique club like to obsess and troll over minor details. The general vibe from all of this is that it is threatening some land area in the future. Nonetheless, reasoning and insights from the mets is appreciated because I would of definitely envisioned a landfalling Conus hurricane after looking at the 12z Euro U/L pattern. I understand that you want everything to be factual but try not to downplay the threat.

If the tropiclique prevents you from feeling comfortable posting here, it's probably because you are making terrible posts. As for the bolded, am19psu has explained why the euro would imply fish...the fact that you see a landfall isn't surprising...you also thought that tornadoes would "mix down" because of heavy rains with Irene.

[Riptide]

If the tropiclique prevents you from feeling comfortable posting here, it's probably because you are making terrible posts. As for the bolded, am19psu has explained why the euro would imply fish...the fact that you see a landfall isn't surprising...you also thought that tornadoes would "mix down" because of heavy rains with Irene.

That is irrelevant. I was implying that tornadoes were possible and was trying to emphasize that fact even though my choice of words was probably poor. It all goes back to you downplaying everything, you still don't believe there was a legitimate tornado threat from Irene even though multiple tornado warnings were issued and there was F0 damage in parts of New Jersey and Delaware.

[Bostonseminole]

No one likes to post in the tropical threads because some members and the clique club like to obsess and troll over minor details. The general vibe from all of this is that it is threatening some land area in the future. Nonetheless, reasoning and insights from the mets is appreciated because I would of definitely envisioned a landfalling Conus hurricane after looking at the 12z Euro U/L pattern. I understand that you want everything to be factual but try not to downplay the threat.

I would not worry, usually the ones who criticized are the ones who also know less than everyone else, I ignore them anyway, the ones that find a way to teach instead of constant criticisms peoples post are the ones to listen to.

[k***]

That is irrelevant. I was implying that tornadoes were possible and was trying to emphasize that fact even though my choice of words was probably poor. It all goes back to you downplaying everything, you still don't believe there was a legitimate tornado threat from Irene even though multiple tornado warnings were issued and there was F0 damage in parts of New Jersey and Delaware.

I posted SPC graphics showing all the mesos and posted about tornadoes multiple times...you're revising history...another hallmark of a really bad poster.

[k***]

I would not worry, usually the ones who criticized are the ones who also know less than everyone else, I ignore them anyway, the ones that find a way to teach instead of constant criticisms peoples post are the ones to listen to.

The problem is that before you can figure out who to listen to you have to read 10 marksc's and yanksfans