A-L-E-X Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I just took a look at Fran's track and it's eerily reminiscent of Hugo's.... Fran missed the Islands, of course, but its track into the States, the angle of approach and what it did afterwards was very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I just took a look at Fran's track and it's eerily reminiscent of Hugo's.... Fran missed the Islands, of course, but its track into the States, the angle of approach and what it did afterwards was very similar. Phil, thanks for the great discussion overnight, I learned a lot personally... Here are Fran's and Hugo's tracks for discussion/comparative purposes... Fran Hugo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Upgraded again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 I can't discount the major shift west the ECWMF has made in the past 3 runs... although given the 500mb pattern, it still appears to be a miss as the ridge is flatter and we should see an even sharper turn to the east despite the further west track intially. That track on Euro has some similarities to that of Emily in '93, arguably without as sharp a curve but still along those same lines. I haven't looked at the 500's to see how they match but on a surface track basis they looked pretty similar (coastal brush at the Outer Banks followed by a hook back out to sea). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Good stuff Phil. Broke it down nicely. The Euro is interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 That track on Euro has some similarities to that of Emily in '93, arguably without as sharp a curve but still along those same lines. I haven't looked at the 500's to see how they match but on a surface track basis they looked pretty similar (coastal brush at the Outer Banks followed by a hook back out to sea). Emily is not a really good match at 500mb, because there was a digging trough in the mid-west while the ECWMF is showing a pretty strong ridge in the same time frame. Also there was no ULL to the west of Emily, while we will likely still be dealing with the remains of Lee and its upper level component. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 It looks like the reason the Euro is a bit further west by 120 hrs is that it's ridge is stronger to the north than the GFS Ensemble Mean is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 You can also notice in Phil's graphics, that the ridge in the Atlantic has been void of upper level lows...or at least weaker upper level lows as the runs progressed and thus a stronger ridge too. Interesting stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zachary Lassiter Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Can I get a linky to the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Phil, thanks for the great discussion overnight, I learned a lot personally... Here are Fran's and Hugo's tracks for discussion/comparative purposes... Good stuff Phil. Broke it down nicely. The Euro is interesting for sure. Thanks guys... now If I could just cure this model induced insomnia I seem to be having It looks like the reason the Euro is a bit further west by 120 hrs is that it's ridge is stronger to the north than the GFS Ensemble Mean is showing. You can also notice in Phil's graphics, that the ridge in the Atlantic has been void of upper level lows...or at least weaker upper level lows as the runs progressed and thus a stronger ridge too. Interesting stuff. Another interesting note that worth looking at is that the operational 00z GFS seems to be a pretty major outlier at this point compared to the GFS ensemble mean. Even more interesting is that the operational 00z ECWMF is on the northeast side of its ensemble mean, meaning a significant portion of the members are further south and west. The plot thickens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 [quote}Another interesting note that worth looking at is that the operational 00z GFS seems to be a pretty major outlier at this point compared to the GFS ensemble mean. Even more interesting is that the operational 00z ECWMF is on the northeast side of its ensemble mean, meaning a significant portion of the members are further south and west. Yeah Phil,the OP GFS has been faster than its ensembles and the Euro over the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Emily is not a really good match at 500mb, because there was a digging trough in the mid-west while the ECWMF is showing a pretty strong ridge in the same time frame. Also there was no ULL to the west of Emily, while we will likely still be dealing with the remains of Lee and its upper level component. Cool...appreciate it...I wasn't sure and didn't have a chance to get around to it...figured I'd ask because the Euro had thrown that sharp hook style track out there a few times over the past few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Is there something wrong with pressure reading for buoy 41044 ? looks like its getting better organized but that looks suspect. Edit: See the buoy also reported a max 1-min wind of 78 kts at 5 meter height. Either the buoy is broke or Katia is significantly stronger than the current advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Is there something wrong with pressure reading for buoy 41044 ? looks like its getting better organized but that looks suspect. What looks suspect about it? All its doing is confirming what some of us thought last night, that Katia is significantly stronger than what the NHC has been estimating by using Dvorak. Buoy is up to 70+ knots sustained wind... so winds are at least 80mph with Katia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Is there something wrong with pressure reading for buoy 41044 ? looks like its getting better organized but that looks suspect. Edit: See the buoy also reported a max 1-min wind of 78 kts at 5 meter height. Either the buoy is broke or Katia is significantly stronger than the current advisory. 969 MB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Buoy reporting pressure of 968 mb and wind speed of 80 kt..... Cat 2 anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Buoy reporting pressure of 968 mb and wind speed of 80 kt..... Cat 2 anyone? Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 AT 6 AM AST...1000 UTC...NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OFTHE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF69 MPH...111 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 83 MPH...133 KM/H...JUST TO THENORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF KATIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KATIA IS UPGRADED AGAIN TO A HURRICANE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 At least the ADT seems to jive well with observation... ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 04 SEP 2011 Time : 111500 UTC Lat : 21:37:30 N Lon : 58:50:33 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 4.8 / 973.8mb/ 84.8kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 4.8 4.8 4.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 AT 6 AM AST...1000 UTC...NOAA BUOY 41044 LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OFTHE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS REPORTED A 1-MINUTE SUSTAINED WIND OF69 MPH...111 KM/H...AND A GUST TO 83 MPH...133 KM/H...JUST TO THENORTHWEST OF THE CENTER OF KATIA. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...KATIA IS UPGRADED AGAIN TO A HURRICANE. Yea that was a couple of hours ago... That same buoy since then has had winds up to 77.7 knots or 89.4mph. We are going to see a significant bump in intensity at 11am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 NHC officially starts reconnaisance flights upon the center reaching 60W...correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Yea that was a couple of hours ago... That same buoy since then has had winds up to 77.7 knots or 89.4mph. We are going to see a significant bump in intensity at 11am. would definitely expect that. Water vapor looks very impressive and the sheer on south side seems to have diminished overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 NHC officially starts reconnaisance flights upon the center reaching 60W...correct? Well nothing has been tasked yet, so chances are its going to a bit longer than that. One thing that has been bugging me since last night is that the NHC kept mentioning Dvorak numbers not supporting hurricane intensity, but all of the estimates I've found have supported hurricane intensity since 23z yesterday. Perhaps I'm not looking at the same information, but what could have been a decent estimate using SATCON at 06z turned into what looks to be a significant error in actual intensity from the NHC. Maybe I'm being a little harsh here and the storm certainly isn't affecting anyone, but this should had been a hurricane at 11pm if this data is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Microwave supports the buoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 We know that the UKMET has been on the left side of guidance with its forecast tracks of katia. What's interesting about its 0z run is that its further south again after shifting north on the 12z run yesterday.This looks like the UKMET has moved into the Euro Op and Ensemble camp. 12z 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 One thing that has been bugging me since last night is that the NHC kept mentioning Dvorak numbers not supporting hurricane intensity, but all of the estimates I've found have supported hurricane intensity since 23z yesterday. Another source of info. is: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/tdpositions.html The score was T4.0 at the time of the 11 pm advisory (also a minimal hurricane). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 The 06Z NOGAPS FWIW looks alot more like many of the Euro runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Buoy bottomed out at 968.0 mb. Max 1-min wind speed in the last hour was 75 kt. Lowest 1-minute PressureTime (AST)Pressure8:35 am28.59 inHighest 1-minute Wind SpeedTime (AST) WSPD WDIR8:37 am75.8 ktsSE ( 130 deg true ) Also, Katia will be a Cat 2 in the next advisory: AL, 12, 2011090412, , BEST, 0, 216N, 588W, 85, 968, HU Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 4, 2011 Share Posted September 4, 2011 Another source of info. is: http://www.ssd.noaa....dpositions.html The score was T4.0 at the time of the 11 pm advisory (also a minimal hurricane). Cool thanks for the link! So basically what support did Avila have for the following statement below? I know this is stupid to be arguing over, but now they are going to have a 85 knot storm at 11am that will be considered a rapid intensification case from 60 knots (25 knot increase in intensity in 12 hours) when in reality the storm was likely already 65-70 knots at 11pm and underwent more modest intensification (15 knots). Hopefully this is corrected in the post-analysis. HAVING SAID THAT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HASBEEN KEPT AT 60 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAKT-NUMBERS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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