wxmx Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 It will be a tease, it looks like, but has a chance of being a bit more than that... Right now I'd say north of the islands and a recurve between the CONUS and Bermuda... Arguments about track should have ended several days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Arguments about track should have ended several days ago. someone forgot to inform the british THE UKMET MODEL HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY FORECASTINGA MUCH STRONGER RIDGE...WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARDCOURSE CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK SEEMS HIGHLYUNLIKELY DUE TO A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEANAND THE UKMET SOLUTION IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 No meaningful changes in my thoughts this morning... 1. Recurvature remains the most likely outcome. 2. Model agreement toward recurvature has increased as the westward trend in the modeling ended yesterday. The models have grown less impressed with the ridging that will try to redevelop and steer Katia back to the west for the time. Hence, following a short period of a more westerly component to Katia's track, the models make a quicker turn toward recurvature away from the U.S. 3. The 9/3 0z UKMET is already off by 90 miles from Katia's position (Katia is well to the east of the UKMET's forecast). That model, along with the Nogaps, is not likely to verify given the magnitude of its early error. 4. The most likely tropical impact in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast will come from the remnants of Lee merging with an approaching cold front. That could bring a significnt rainfall to portions of the Mid-Atlantic region and possibly into southern New England next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 question for the red taggers: how credible is the NOGAPS? It is a terrible weather model and is essentially useless. It is relatively primitive with respect to the other global models, and little consideration should be given to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 mid and low levels are not vertically aligned I figured that's why the "eye" looked slanted relative to where the deepest blue/LLC seemed to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 12z 9/3/11 GFS is a close pass/noreaster type deal for Cape Cod. Given the complexity of the track I highly doubt we're within even at the point of 300 or 400 mile cone. GFS track involves a period of almost due west movement before the turn off and away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Last Hour or 2 looks like Katia is a bit more west now. maybe slightly west of foretasted track. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-rb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The Euro missed by half a coastline at 0z and looks to be heading that way at 12z very early on. I guess in one sense that's good news because we're starting to see a decided split very early on with some camps west, others already turning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The biggest key here is the upper low in the OH Valley that is forecast to develop at about day 6-7. The farther west and deeper this is, the better chance Katia can slingshot around it and into New England- which is what the new CMC has. Still not convinced that this will actually happen, lots of variables including Lee, the strength of Katia etc etc. An extremely complex scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 someone forgot to inform the british THE UKMET MODEL HAS BEEN STUBBORNLY FORECASTINGA MUCH STRONGER RIDGE...WHICH FORCES THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARDCOURSE CLOSER TO THE BAHAMAS. THIS WESTWARD TRACK SEEMS HIGHLYUNLIKELY DUE TO A PRONOUNCED TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEANAND THE UKMET SOLUTION IS DISREGARDED FOR THIS FORECAST. The 12z UKMET finally awakened from its dreams. It now recognizes the turn northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 The biggest key here is the upper low in the OH Valley that is forecast to develop at about day 6-7. The farther west and deeper this is, the better chance Katia can slingshot around it and into New England- which is what the new CMC has. Still not convinced that this will actually happen, lots of variables including Lee, the strength of Katia etc etc. An extremely complex scenario. It's interesting to watch the model gymnastics which are probably a day or two away from settling. The Euro rolls in now further west, after 72/75 hours it's rolling due west or wnw. By 102 hours it's getting much more interesting as well. The 12z Euro is hundres of miles SW of the 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 new Euro totally different than 0Z, has Midwest low much farther west in IL at 150 hrs, this looks a lot more like the 12Z CMC. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 As we can all clearly see, Katia is no threat to land. The GFS/CMC/EURO all imply we have something to watch, closely unltil and unless they decide to make a jump OTS. But I think there's a lean towards a more pronounced OV UL low we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Euro turns it a hundred or two miles east of Hatteras, then skims by east of Cape Cod. A real close but no cigar run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 new Euro totally different than 0Z, has Midwest low much farther west in IL at 150 hrs, this looks a lot more like the 12Z CMC. Hmmm For illustrative and comparative purposes, the end of the 12z CMC run. MSLP and 500mb vort... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 HWRF from Alan's site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Euro turns it a hundred or two miles east of Hatteras, then skims by east of Cape Cod. A real close but no cigar run. True but at H162 12z vs h1740z it has moved about 500 miles WSW in a single run.GFS v Euro spread at that same time is 750 miles...quite a lot of uncertainty. ADMIN NOTE: Tons of posts aren't appearing/failing. I know I'm not alone, it appears the DB just loses them and instead of ending up back on the forum thread you get dumped to the homepage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 There is decent agreement between the GFS Ensemble Mean track and the Euro through 120 hrs. We probably have a ways to go for the models to work out the specifics regarding the interaction with the MW low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Euro tryies to Amp the pattern at the last secong. Too little to late though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 True but at H162 12z vs h1740z it has moved about 500 miles WSW in a single run.GFS v Euro spread at that same time is 750 miles...quite a lot of uncertainty. It is an impressive turn of events. The Euro is a shade to the west of what remains one of my top two analogs for Katia (Hurricane #1 in 1927; Gladys in 1975 is my other one, but the former is probably ahead of it at this time). My full set of 10 analogs (Message #561 in this thread) remains the same from yesterday. http://weather.unisy...927/1/track.gif My guess about Katia's track remains unchanged for now: 17.5N 52.8W; Actual: 17.5N 52.4; Error: 26 miles--1.5 hours in advance 20.0N 56.8W 25.0N 63.9W 30.0N 72.0W 35.0N 69.6W 40.0N 63.5W Given the recent GGEM and ECMWF runs, I suspect that the positions for 35N and 40N will need to be adjusted to the west. While I still favor recurvature (IMO, about a 67% probability), I still do not believe U.S. landfall can or should be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 It is an impressive turn of events. The Euro is a shade to the west of what remains one of my top two analogs for Katia (Hurricane #1 in 1927; Gladys in 1975 is my other one, but the former is probably ahead of it at this time). My full set of 10 analogs (Message #561 in this thread) remains the same from yesterday. http://weather.unisy...927/1/track.gif My guess about Katia's track remains unchanged for now: 17.5N 52.8W; Actual: 17.5N 52.4; Error: 26 miles--1.5 hours in advance 20.0N 56.8W 25.0N 63.9W 30.0N 72.0W 35.0N 69.6W 40.0N 63.5W Given the recent GGEM and ECMWF runs, I suspect that the positions for 35N and 40N will need to be adjusted to the west. While I still favor recurvature (IMO, about a 67% probability), I still do not believe U.S. landfall can or should be ruled out. Good analysis, I agree with your conclusions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Looks like they are probably downgrading at 5pm, they initialized the SHIPS with 60kt Microwave shows a messy system that appears to be tilted with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 i just took this screen shot...i'm confused how, and where Katia could strengthen...it's such a hostile environment! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 i just took this screen shot...i'm confused how, and where Katia could strengthen...it's such a hostile environment! I didn't realize that Lee so much larger than Katia. The fetch with Lee from the Caribbean and the Pacific is tremenous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 It is an impressive turn of events. The Euro is a shade to the west of what remains one of my top two analogs for Katia (Hurricane #1 in 1927; Gladys in 1975 is my other one, but the former is probably ahead of it at this time). My full set of 10 analogs (Message #561 in this thread) remains the same from yesterday. http://weather.unisy...927/1/track.gif My guess about Katia's track remains unchanged for now: 17.5N 52.8W; Actual: 17.5N 52.4; Error: 26 miles--1.5 hours in advance 20.0N 56.8W 25.0N 63.9W 30.0N 72.0W 35.0N 69.6W 40.0N 63.5W Given the recent GGEM and ECMWF runs, I suspect that the positions for 35N and 40N will need to be adjusted to the west. While I still favor recurvature (IMO, about a 67% probability), I still do not believe U.S. landfall can or should be ruled out. Great write up Don. Family and I got into Orlando this morning, and I must say, I can't be happier with sitting between these two vacation busters! (Lee and Katia). However, the return home next Friday (flying) just became a tad more interesting. Models having all sorts of issues with Lee....if he weren't around, I thing the model spread word certainly be narrower. Still over a 50% recurve, but each day seems to shave a few percent off that scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 It is an impressive turn of events. The Euro is a shade to the west of what remains one of my top two analogs for Katia (Hurricane #1 in 1927; Gladys in 1975 is my other one, but the former is probably ahead of it at this time). My full set of 10 analogs (Message #561 in this thread) remains the same from yesterday. http://weather.unisy...927/1/track.gif My guess about Katia's track remains unchanged for now: 17.5N 52.8W; Actual: 17.5N 52.4; Error: 26 miles--1.5 hours in advance 20.0N 56.8W 25.0N 63.9W 30.0N 72.0W 35.0N 69.6W 40.0N 63.5W Given the recent GGEM and ECMWF runs, I suspect that the positions for 35N and 40N will need to be adjusted to the west. While I still favor recurvature (IMO, about a 67% probability), I still do not believe U.S. landfall can or should be ruled out. Yeah, I agree Don GGEM definately has done well with this storm. It has one of the lowest average position errors. I think a blend of the GGEM and ECMWF will do pretty well for this forecast period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 ...KATIA SPARRING WITH STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS...KNOCKED DOWN TO A TROPICAL STORM FOR THE SECOND TIME... 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 3 Location: 19.9°N 56.8°W Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: WNW at 10 mph Min pressure: 993 mb IT CANNOT BE STRESSED ENOUGH THAT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTYIN THE TRACK FORECAST...WHICH IS EXTREMELY SENSITIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF TROPICAL STORM LEE AND ITS INTERACTION WITH A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS OR SO...BUT THE DIVERGENCE ONLY GROWS FROM THERE. COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE...THE UKMET HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND THE GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN...WHICH NORMALLY WOULD HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FURTHERMORE...THE ECMWF...WHICH IS NORMALLY RELIABLE...SWUNG FROM THE NORTH AND EAST SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE TO THE SOUTH AND WEST SIDE...SHOWING A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED A BIT TO THE WEST TOWARDS THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS...BUT WE WOULD RATHER SEE SOME STABILITY IN THE MODELS BEFORE MAKING A LARGER SHIFT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 56.8 WEST. KATIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND KATIA COULD RE-STRENGTHEN BACK TO A HURRICANE AT ANY TIME. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES...220 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 993 MB...29.32 INCHES. I'm suprised to see such a straight tropical storm wind prob cone rather than a curved one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted September 3, 2011 Share Posted September 3, 2011 Katia, GFS 18z running somewhat SW through the first 36-48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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