Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Naming 1938 as an analog for a run-of-the-mill, minimal hurricane way E of the Lesser Antilles is just not reasonable. The 1938 'cane was a once-a-century event-- if that-- and needs to really be mentioned with a little more care. Josh, it was already cleared up but some Mods removed the clarification. The comparison was not "event" related, but track only through 144 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I'm not especially confident in much intensification today. Katia is burping out outflow boundaries left and right and it looks to me like most of the deep convection is well removed from the COC. Also, there are a few dry pockets toward the center of the CDO (ish), and it seems like upper outflow is still pretty restricted on the eastern side. Still has core issues as far as I'm concerned... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Josh, it was already cleared up but some Mods removed the clarification. The comparison was not "event" related, but track only through 144 hours. which then went OTS, devaluing the comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Not shocking... But, that's any model trying to dicepher a track beyond D6 , which is likely an error anyway. Up through 144 hours the track on that model run looks intriguing. The inverted trough extending up the EC is also an interesting homage. So how is your analysis any more accurate... *if* *if* *if* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Josh, it was already cleared up but some Mods removed the clarification. The comparison was not "event" related, but track only through 144 hours. But you have to realize that, in the context of the layperson reading this board, they'll see a mention of 1938 by a met and immediately latch onto that as an "analog" storm, complete with landfall region. It's contextually misleading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 But you have to realize that, in the context of the layperson reading this board, they'll see a mention of 1938 by a met and immediately latch onto that as an "analog" storm, complete with landfall region. It's contextually misleading. Seriously...if you're going to hype...go make an account without a red-tag...unfortunately, that color gives you some sort of creditability...even when not deserved @typhoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 why don't you go draw the 500 mb map and show it to us? I'm interested to see it...only because I've seen reanalysis for this storm...and I want to see how far off you are with your 50% confident assessment? I'll give you a clue...don't draw the 144H 500 mb from the CMC...you'd be wrong. It makes no difference where the storm is on a 180hr panel of the GGEM..., the U/A is the only thing anyone should be remotely concerned with beyond D5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Naming 1938 as an analog for a run-of-the-mill, minimal hurricane way E of the Lesser Antilles is just not reasonable. The 1938 'cane was a once-a-century event-- if that-- and needs to really be mentioned with a little more care. Josh, Unless I misunderstood, I believe he was referring to some similarities in the early part of the track. I don't think Katia, even if it were to make landfall (less likely than recurvature) will even begin to rival the '38 hurricane. That's clearly a unique situation, probably about as unique as the 1888 blizzzard with respect to Northeast winter storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 We do this with every CV storm it seems..... So setting the anologue issue aside, we have the models trending westward over the last several runs, but they all show recurve still....so what does that say about chances of a recurve?? I think it is about the same as a few days ago.....the value of the model consensus at these shorter leads offset the fact that we have more westward progs....so there should be no hyping, nor should there be any fish calls....we are in status quo....IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 why don't you go draw the 500 mb map and show it to us? I'm interested to see it...only because I've seen reanalysis for this storm...and I want to see how far off you are with your 50% confident assessment? I'll give you a clue...don't draw the 144H 500 mb from the CMC...you'd be wrong. I wasn't looking at 500mb charts from the CMC. I was looking at the SFC pressure pattern alone. Wrt 1938, I have seen the re-analysis my self, the U/As are not the same. However, though there may be less N stream involvement in this CMC run, what is interesting is that both results then and now would induce S streering along the EC should it get there... It is interesting that the CMC goes on to bully the N stream, disrupt it all and cause the sharp turn seaward anyway, but that is all beyond D6 anyway so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I wasn't looking at 500mb charts from the CMC. I was looking at the SFC pressure pattern alone. Wrt 1938, I have seen the re-analysis my self, the U/As are not the same. However, though there may be less N stream involvement in this CMC run, what is interesting is that both results then and now would induce S streering along the EC should it get there... It is interesting that the CMC goes on to bully the N stream, disrupt it all and cause the sharp turn seaward anyway, but that is all beyond D6 anyway so we'll see. stop invoking the greatest hurricanes of all time in your "analogs" and we'll call it even...show some restraint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 So how is your analysis any more accurate... *if* *if* *if* I didn't say it was ... can you let it go - this is ridiculous. Don't assign stuff to me for the sole purpose of inpugning me - it's childish and unwarnted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 euro looks interesting at day 6 to 7. this is going to come down with the interaction b/n lee remnants and the incoming trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 12z Euro sharply recurves Katia at 168 at 30N 72W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Josh, Unless I misunderstood, I believe he was referring to some similarities in the early part of the track. I don't think Katia, even if it were to make landfall (less likely than recurvature) will even begin to rival the '38 hurricane. That's clearly a unique situation, probably about as unique as the 1888 blizzzard with respect to Northeast winter storms. This is correct - thank you Don. This 1938 (1944, Gloria...et al) mention is clearly a touchy subject for folks - don't mean to offend, sorry. For me, they are nothing more than purer examples for which to compare against as reference, nothing more - certainly nothing to cause an emotional response, which my efforts seemed to have ecnouraged, even from the Mets. I encourage you go back and read exactly what I wrote: This CMC run through 144 hours best analog is 1938 - no where in that does it compare any facets about the event back then in total. Through 144 hours in the CMC, the only thing that possible could be comparable is the track. I think if you read that unbiasedly you be less likely to interpret it beyond what it said - you guys are assigning that yourselves and then blaming me for. It is not always the fault of the writer when someone has a knee jerk emotional response. I often have to re-read things a couple of times to stop my self from doing this - lord knows. Let's just drop it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Take all the crap here: Storm mode mods, keep doing what you are doing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I encourage you go back and read exactly what I wrote: This CMC run through 144 hours best analog is 1938 - no where in that does it compare any facets about the event back then in total. Through 144 hours in the CMC, the only thing that possible could be comparable is the track. what's the utility of pointing out a track similarity between 1938 and a random CMC panel, since you weren't trying to make it into anything else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 12Z Euro is still another run w/o a U.S. hit. This appears to be slightly further from the U.S. vs. the 0Z run. This storm is liable to end up being one of those teasing stoms that takes a long time to get to the north ATL and, therefore, causes frustration for weenies because it takes so long to get the heck away. Therefore, I'm sticking with a 90% chance of no CONUS hit for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 New Euro turns it east quite far out. The Ukie's far south track is a super outlier, remember how wretchedly too far left it was with Irene. I still say this fishes out. Personally I am far more interested in Lee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Josh, Unless I misunderstood, I believe he was referring to some similarities in the early part of the track. I don't think Katia, even if it were to make landfall (less likely than recurvature) will even begin to rival the '38 hurricane. That's clearly a unique situation, probably about as unique as the 1888 blizzzard with respect to Northeast winter storms. Hey, Don-- Yep-- the 1938 hurricane is extremely unique-- which is why I wince at casual mentions of it. Katia's WNW track through the tropical C Atlantic doesn't seem so unique to me that the greatest hurricane to hit the Northeast USA in two centuries should be invoked. I feel like a million cyclones have taken this exact track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 i thought you had 100% confidence. The 100% confidence was never in a east coast threat or a bermuda threat. The 100% confidence was in the track thru 10 days ..which ended before anywhere near either.. Also in Katia becoming a major hurricane.... Looks like it still below 20 N huh pretty much where i had it in that track.... Meanwhile the ECM still keeps this out to sea and no effect on the east coast but because its in the long range I am not going to say this is certainly a fish! Long range projections on models always fluctuate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 UK is first global to show a LF "somewhere" (Bahamas): It says: "Screw the westerlies....I'm headin' south!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I feel like 1938 can be reasonably mentioned when you have a Cat 5 N of the Bahamas with a powerful steering flow pushing it straight N toward the Northeast USA. Otherwise, I don't see why it should be mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 I wasn't looking at 500mb charts from the CMC. I was looking at the SFC pressure pattern alone. Wrt 1938, I have seen the re-analysis my self, the U/As are not the same. However, though there may be less N stream involvement in this CMC run, what is interesting is that both results then and now would induce S streering along the EC should it get there... It is interesting that the CMC goes on to bully the N stream, disrupt it all and cause the sharp turn seaward anyway, but that is all beyond D6 anyway so we'll see. Tip, seriously, if you're going to draw these 1938 comparisons a week in advance, the least you could do is take it to your subforum. Even if it's not your intent to draw an exact comparison, that's not how it comes off. You're not really adding much value with those types of posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 At least with today's 12z forecasts,the GFS ENS mean forecast track is similar to the OP Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 The 100% confidence was never in a east coast threat or a bermuda threat. The 100% confidence was in the track thru 10 days ..which ended before anywhere near either.. Also in Katia becoming a major hurricane.... Looks like it still below 20 N huh pretty much where i had it in that track.... Meanwhile the ECM still keeps this out to sea and no effect on the east coast but because its in the long range I am not going to say this is certainly a fish! Long range projections on models always fluctuate! the point is you still had confidence in something that was several days out. nice back peddling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 At least with today's 12z forecasts,the GFS ENS mean forecast track is similar to the OP Euro. Any closer and we can start talking an Earl redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Tip, seriously, if you're going to draw these 1938 comparisons a week in advance, the least you could do is take it to your subforum. Even if it's not your intent to draw an exact comparison, that's not how it comes off. You're not really adding much value with those types of posts. Disagree - the question was directed at a couple of individuals, one of which saw that value and returned in kind. No no - what's going on there is that people read and get knee jerk emotional and/or personal intepretations without thinking that through - and THAT is what devalues the post, not the content of what I gave. Fine - i'll leave it to you. have nice days and good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 Take all the crap here: Storm mode mods, keep doing what you are doing here. Track looks actually further West at 180 on Euro versus 192 last night then the 3 fishes take over, nothing etched in stone but looking OTS, storm mode LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted September 2, 2011 Share Posted September 2, 2011 the point is you still had confidence in something that was several days out. nice back peddling. No back peddling is needed... My statement in reference to LEK was in reference to east coast threat or certain fish.. there is no certainty on either at this time. Which was what he had said. Being that my forecast has never gone that far and being that what i did forecast track wise thus far is occurring at that time range = no need to back peddle...There is nothing wrong with having confidence in what one issues...it seems to be your issue... Anyone can echo the thoughts of NHC...that does not take any confidence at all...all that takes is the ability to copy and paste their thoughts or images... I went beyond what they went ..so that did not rely on them and it has turned out to be fairly well..so thus far the confidence has indeed paid off track wise...I am not a pro met & never claimed to be one so i am not bound to the same code of ethics that they may be bound to. I learn from the pro mets on a daily basis as i have done so for the longest time...I value all their input and analysis. This will be my last response to you on this subject...The end! FWIW the experimental FIMY ENK at 156 hrs...Rest of the run still needs to come out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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