k*** Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I don't see many similarities between Jeanne and Katia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I don't see many similarities between Jeanne and Katia Frances could be used but even that's the only one of the "top 10" on the analog list to make landfall...rest were fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 "It's got a lot of ocean to go. There's no way at this point to say if it will make any impacts, let alone when it might make them," said Dennis Feltgen, a meteorologist and spokesman at the National Hurricane Center, on Wednesday. "There's a reason we don't do forecasts more than five days in advance — the information just isn't good. The error beyond that just isn't acceptable." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Little update on Katia http://philstropicalweatherblog.wordpress.com/2011/09/01/quick-update-katia-struggles-against-shear-and-dry-air-invest-94l-looks-to-become-a-tropical-cyclone/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Man, Euro way west at 144-168 vs last run, but huge eastern trough still looks to nab it. Nonetheless, it would not take as much to make it a little interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Man, Euro way west at 144-168 vs last run, but huge eastern trough still looks to nab it. Nonetheless, it would not take as much to make it a little interesting. Very Edouard-like sharp right turn there around 180...gets pretty damn close though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Man, Euro way west at 144-168 vs last run, but huge eastern trough still looks to nab it. Nonetheless, it would not take as much to make it a little interesting. Out to hr 198 it looks to make it as far west as 73-74W while still south of 30N. Just like before it is still turning north then northeast to miss coast. Is further west than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VAwxman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Out to hr 198 it looks to make it as far west as 73-74W while still south of 30N. Just like before it is still turning north then northeast to miss coast. Is further west than before. Yeah quick hook out and a miss, but would not take much change in that day 6-8 pattern to increase level of concern. Still gotta favor the out to sea scenario but at the least, future runs are now more interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think the further west trend is warranted and will verify based on ensemble data, but I still think that this is highly unlikely to affect the US- will go between Bermuda and NC then up towards the Maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Is the more westward track due to influence from 93L, which is now predicted to go NE into Louisiana and possibly continue that track through western or central NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Pretty classic shear pattern on the latest microwave. Single convective tower to the northeast, with an empty southwest quad. It is interesting to note the differences between the SHIPS, which has insisted on keeping the shear low, and the ECMWF which clearly has the upper-level southerlies persisting over the next few days. Like Phil, I'm heavily leaning towards the ECMWF, and I'm thinking this will be downgraded to a TS soon. Katia will have the opportunity to strengthen substantially when it gets trapped under the ridge and accompanying upper-level easterlies in 4-5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I would say NC may need to watch out if this were to continue. I still like OTS and a miss by about 200 miles but we are seeing some major shifts. patteren vs models pattern will always win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 staring at this for awhile 1. Most storms are intensifying and will become majors from this position 2. Almost all these hurricanes eventually re-curve 3. A significant % of those show tremendous weenie appeal and still re-curve 4. Very few/none have made much progress north and then bent west like a few models are showing 5. The small minority of storms that did strike the US were all cat 2 or stronger at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I agree, I think there was only one ensemble member showing anything even close to land fall yesterday and this shows 5 with many closer to the coast. I would say NC may need to watch out if this were to continue. I still like OTS and a miss by about 200 miles but we are seeing some major shifts. patteren vs models pattern will always win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Man, Euro way west at 144-168 vs last run, but huge eastern trough still looks to nab it. Nonetheless, it would not take as much to make it a little interesting. Per that one run, perhaps ... That model switches the vibe every run to something new … I wouldn’t count on anything one sees on any Euro run outside of 4.5 days. Been pretty chaotic. Can't trust how it interacts with Katia then for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Katia is looking pretty bad Intensity estimate is down to only 57kts UW - CIMSS ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE ADT-Version 8.1.3 Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm ----- Current Analysis ----- Date : 01 SEP 2011 Time : 184500 UTC Lat : 15:44:47 N Lon : 48:19:38 W CI# /Pressure/ Vmax 3.6 / 996.1mb/ 57.0kt Final T# Adj T# Raw T# 3.5 3.9 3.9 Center Temp : -65.0C Cloud Region Temp : -63.9C Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT Weakening Flag : ON Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs : - Average 34 knot radii : 93km - Environmental MSLP : 1014mb Satellite Viewing Angle : 35.7 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The weaker a storm stays, the further south it can glide under weaknesses in the ridge. Even recent forecasts placed intensity at 75 kts for this time frame, when operationally a downgrade to a tropical storm seems highly possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 The weaker a storm stays, the further south it can glide under weaknesses in the ridge. Even recent forecasts placed intensity at 75 kts for this time frame, when operationally a downgrade to a tropical storm seems highly possible. Hate to say this but this will lead the models to correct west even more. It's been a year where we have seen alot of things we have not seen before which allows for anything to be possible. I still think it passes 200 miles east. I would assume NHC at 5pm shifts south and west some and maybe even downgrade Katia to a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Hate to say this but this will lead the models to correct west even more. It's been a year where we have seen alot of things we have not seen before which allows for anything to be possible. I still think it passes 200 miles east. I would assume NHC at 5pm shifts south and west some and maybe even downgrade Katia to a tropical storm. Yeah, a recurve is obviously the most prudent call right now, but I do think there is potential for a close enough pass to cause some concern. Another problem is how Katia can regroup; we've seen quite a few storms this year fail to live up to expectations due to core issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BethesdaWX Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Hate to say this but this will lead the models to correct west even more. It's been a year where we have seen alot of things we have not seen before which allows for anything to be possible. I still think it passes 200 miles east. I would assume NHC at 5pm shifts south and west some and maybe even downgrade Katia to a tropical storm. You can't say that for sure, the track of a TC is determined by a system that cannot be modeled to perfection due to it's chaotic state, the strength of the storm is one of many factors. Tho the OP GFS being a right outlier to it's ensembles is interesting in my view as it usually seems to be the other way around, at least from what I can remember, which could be off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think it would be ha-ha if this thing wound up in the Gulf. So many guidance types were too far left with Irene and she ended up right and up the EC.... just think, this could be the exact same d6 error but in the other direction. either way, as long as there IS error all must be well in the universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think it would be ha-ha if this thing wound up in the Gulf. So many guidance types were too far left with Irene and she ended up right and up the EC.... just think, this could be the exact same d6 error but in the other direction. either way, as long as there IS error all must be well in the universe. I have to agree with you on that everything has had a mind of its own this year and has gone against all climo one has to wounder if the process repeats its self. If all models keep the west shift tonight many will be more interested in this storm. Would be devastating if it where to hit same areas as Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 .KATIA WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM...EXPECTED TO RESTRENGTHEN...5:00 PM AST Thu Sep 1 Location: 16.1°N 49.2°W Max sustained: 70 mph Moving: W at 18 mph Min pressure: 990 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I'll take Tropical storms for $500, Alex: TROPICAL STORM KATIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011500 PM AST THU SEP 01 2011KATIA HAS TAKEN THE APPEARANCE OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE.VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUE TO INDICATE THATTHE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE CONVECTION.THE CURVED BAND THAT WAS LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTER HASDISSIPATED...AND CONVECTION IS NOW LIMITED TO THE NORTHEASTQUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CI AND T NUMBERSFROM SAB AND TAFB...THE INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT FORTHIS ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I think it would be ha-ha if this thing wound up in the Gulf. So many guidance types were too far left with Irene and she ended up right and up the EC.... just think, this could be the exact same d6 error but in the other direction. either way, as long as there IS error all must be well in the universe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Man, Euro way west at 144-168 vs last run, but huge eastern trough still looks to nab it. Nonetheless, it would not take as much to make it a little interesting. I think the further west trend is warranted and will verify based on ensemble data, but I still think that this is highly unlikely to affect the US- will go between Bermuda and NC then up towards the Maritimes. I agree that this looks further west in the short term given it won't be nearly as vertically deep as most of the models were progging it to be about 12-24 hours ago over the next few days. This was one of my caveats I mentioned in my forecast a few days back if the shear ended up being stronger than forecast. In the end it still likely won't matter much because conditions are still forecasted to improve beyond 96 hours and we should see this thing still intensify into a formidable storm that is very vertically deep. The 20N 60W benchmark is still very relevant and I think it will be able to gain enough latitude to clear this benchmark. Since we will still likely be dealing with a strong system by this point, I'm still thinking this re-curves without a US impact, although my confidence has decreased somewhat from yesterday given how much ridging is forecasted to build back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 168 hour ECWMF ensemble mean is more interesting for US impact than the op with westerlies located further north and the mean US trough located further west..however...it would still likely fall short because the Atlantic ridging isn't quite strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 168 hour ECWMF ensemble mean is more interesting for US impact than the op with westerlies located further north and the mean US trough located further west..however...it would still likely fall short because the Atlantic ridging isn't quite strong enough. there is still a giant trough over the entire eastern US....there should be a unicorn emoticon for threads like this...one big fantasy pipe dream Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 H1: As weenies are exposed to westward shifts in the models, thread quality decreases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 H1: As weenies are exposed to westward shifts in the models, thread quality decreases. If the trough off the east coast magically vanished as Katia was approaching it, would that then allow Katia to hit the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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