BethesdaWX Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 All of you weenies need to look at hour 216 of the Euro. Yes, it's far out, but it also shows consistency in terms of a recurve. This is not a significantly further west recurve... this is pretty much the same except just before hour 216, she gets bumped a little to the west before being recurved by that gigantic trough of no escape coming off the east coast. I'm not trying to defend anyone, but it is a marginal situation with the trough, is very far off and will change several times over. Obviously a recurve is very likely in this circumstance based on climo in the direction Katia is moving (WNW at current Lattitude), but any change in the strength/orientation of the trough, if at all, even assuming any accuracy in the 7-8 day timeframe, could result in drastically different tracks. Wavelength also seems a bit long for early Sept but that could be decieving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 All of you weenies need to look at hour 216 of the Euro. Yes, it's far out, but it also shows consistency in terms of a recurve. This is not a significantly further west recurve... this is pretty much the same except just before hour 216, she gets bumped a little to the west before being recurved by that gigantic trough of no escape coming off the east coast. Not trying to wishcast but just a question - The recurve depends on either 1. the trough being positively tilted? and 2. interaction with Katia in a way that it doesn't pass her by? I can tell by looking at the model that this trough is certainly oriented in a way to pick Katia up move it away before it threatens the east coast as currently modeled. Just trying to get a better handle on how these larger hurricanes move in the overall flow. Would this storm start to look more like an EC threat if either A. the trough trended from a positive to a negative tilt (does that even happen very often this time of year?) so that it slings the storm more north/NNW rather than NNE when the storm gets picked up? OR if the trough was much weaker and "misses" picking up Katia allowing the atlantic ridge to build in and steer the storm more west as we saw with Irene? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 All of you weenies need to look at hour 216 of the Euro. Yes, it's far out, but it also shows consistency in terms of a recurve. This is not a significantly further west recurve... this is pretty much the same except just before hour 216, she gets bumped a little to the west before being recurved by that gigantic trough of no escape coming off the east coast. What they DON'T need to look at is the 240 hour prog off the FIM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 What they DON'T need to look at is the 240 hour prog off the FIM! Well obviously now I have to go check. It shows nothing cool. I've been meterologically rick-rolled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 That kind of solution where the trough misses Katia and then the weakness closes was hinted at on yesterday's 12z run of the ECMWF ensembles. It's an interesting solution, to be sure. Thanks Don for theECMWF dprog/dt map very usful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 It already looks like a hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Well obviously now I have to go check. It shows nothing cool. I've been meterologically rick-rolled. Try this... http://fim.noaa.gov/FIMscp/jsloop.cgi?dsKeys=fimy:&runTime=2011083112&plotName=wind_10m&fcstInc=360&numFcsts=41&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=240&fcstStrLen=-1&resizePlot=1&domain=236&wjet=1 I think the normal FIM is from yesterday. This is some variation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Well obviously now I have to go check. It shows nothing cool. I've been meterologically rick-rolled. I think he was talking about 6z and I almost posted that but didn't want to get 5 posted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Well obviously now I have to go check. It shows nothing cool. I've been meterologically rick-rolled. 228 hrs on the model he was referencing which is experimental Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Try this... http://fim.noaa.gov/...main=236&wjet=1 I think the normal FIM is from yesterday. This is some variation. Yes I would call that some variation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I tell ya what - if you dig hard enough you'll find a model that fits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Try this... http://fim.noaa.gov/...main=236&wjet=1 I think the normal FIM is from yesterday. This is some variation. Sorry, yes, I meant the experimental FIM-Y. While I think we are probably at 90% for a recurve east of the CONUS, as someone pointed out looking at a different model yesterday, the fact that a model can construct a solution like this helps show there are still a few low probability outliers out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 IMO, find out what climo says the % is for a recurve for a TC at Katia's current location and then add about 5-8% as of right now.......just my own way to roughly ascertain the uncertainty at these still, fairly long leads...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 More on the use of the heading between 25W and 30W. I looked at 79 1851-2010 storms that are recorded as having become a TD by 28W: 1) Headings of 270 deg. or less: - 18 TC’s. - Avg. furthest west they got: 72W - % that made it to 70W: 61% - CONUS hit %: 50% 2) Headings of 271-280 deg.: - 33 TC’s - Avg. furthest west they got: 68W - % that made it to 70W: 39% - CONUS hit %: 27% 3) Headings of 281-290 deg.: - 18 TC’s - Avg. furthest west they got: 56W - % that made it to 70W: 6% - CONUS hit %: 0% 4) Headings of 291+ (Katia is in this category since its heading was at ~293 deg. Between 25 and 30W): - 10 TC’s - Avg. furthest west they got: 53W - % that made it to 70W: 0% - CONUS hit %: 0% 5) All headings combined: - 79 TC’s - Avg. furthest west they got: 64W - % that made it to 70W: 32% - CONUS hit %: 23% So, this indicator, alone, suggests that Katia, which had a heading of ~293 deg. between 25 and 30W, has only a very minimal chance of hitting the CONUS. The 12Z GFS and Euro both have it making it almost to 70W, which would in itself be a notable accomplishment considering that only one of 28 TC's with a heading of 281+ made it past 70W (Faith of 1966). Despite models getting it pretty close to 70W, I'm maintaining a 90% chance of Katia missing the CONUS based on how it headed between 25 and 30W since that appears to be a strong climo indicator of the future track as well as based on the fact that the GFS and Euro are still not hitting the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 she's got that lovely #9 shape going on tonight, this will just be fun to watch on satellite and that's about it for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Katia becomes second hurricane of the season AL, 12, 2011090100, , BEST, 0, 148N, 436W, 65, 987, HU, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 IMO, find out what climo says the % is for a recurve for a TC at Katia's current location and then add about 5-8% as of right now.......just my own way to roughly ascertain the uncertainty at these still, fairly long leads...... So that gives it 100% to 108% chance of recurve. Obviously the further SW it gets the better cance it has wen the troff finally dous pick it up. Also if the first troff misses it and moves into the central atlantic it shifts the shifts the center of the ridge back toward the western atlantic. and may turn the storm back west. It has a lot of shear to contend with this time too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 So that gives it 100% to 108% chance of recurve. Obviously the further SW it gets the better cance it has wen the troff finally dous pick it up. Also if the first troff misses it and moves into the central atlantic it shifts the shifts the center of the ridge back toward the western atlantic. and may turn the storm back west. It has a lot of shear to contend with this time too. I was talking about location only....Larry broke it down further to current heading, which obviously would suggest a further increase in recurve, but looking into the very short term, there is a good chance that we have will have a heading close to 270, and a recalculation based on historical data would most likely lead to a pretty good increase in LF chances with the new samples (maybe back to 20% or so....just guessing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Definitely looking impressive this evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Average model position error for Katia through 18z model runs I only plotted the top 6 performing models through 18z plus the GFS=AVNO. GFS isn't doing so hot. Obviously we will see a change in which models have the lowest error as time progresses but I think this is worth viewing to at least see which models are doing well handling it's position in the deep tropics. It can at least give us some insight into where it may be positioned in the next 48-72 hours which will in turn translates into comparing that position with what the globals are indicating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
THEREALTOR1 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 From SACRUS's "Tracking" thread: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Dry air has been keeping Katia in check, but its not stopping it from slowly intensifying... The most recent convective burst has wrapped almost all the way across the center, and there are hints of a weak echo area near the center starting to form. Whether or not Katia undergoes RI in the next 24 hours will be determined if it can close off that NW quadrant from dry air entrainment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QVectorman Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 18z models of the 6 lowest position error models so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I would find it very hard to imagine that the 11:00 pm advisory will not classify this as a hurricane now, given the improved presentation. Not sure if this means anything, but they call it "Hurricane Katia" for the early track guidance map... http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realtime/plots/northatlantic/2011/al122011/track_early/aal12_2011090100_track_early.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 I would find it very hard to imagine that the 11:00 pm advisory will not classify this as a hurricane now, given the improved presentation. Per the ATCF, it is a hurricane and the 11 PM advisory should reflect the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 18z models of the 6 lowest position error models so far. Interestingly enough all 6 of them have a slight bend back to WNW too at the end of the model run. Of course it's one run so take it for what its worth which is not a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DMADKAT Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 Interestingly enough all 6 of them have a slight bend back to WNW too at the end of the model run. Of course it's one run so take it for what its worth which is not a whole lot. If that thing bows back to the west at that point , we are in deep dodo baby. Isabelle track familiar? Good God ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 No not going to happen with that trough. This seems like a rather easy forecast as far as general track goes. If that thing bows back to the west at that point , we are in deep dodo baby. Isabelle track familiar? Good God ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted September 1, 2011 Share Posted September 1, 2011 We Now have the official word.. BULLETIN HURRICANE KATIA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011 1100 PM AST WED AUG 31 2011 ...KATIA BECOMES THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE SEASON... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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