matthewweatherwatcher Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The outflow pattern of this system by 48-96 hours is one of a very powerful hurricane. Watch this become a cat4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The outflow pattern of this system by 48-96 hours is one of a very powerful hurricane. Watch this become a cat4. Curious, do you have a product that explicitly indicates outflow? Not to bust your rocks but I wasn't sure if that is interpreted on your part, or if you are reading that somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The outflow pattern of this system by 48-96 hours is one of a very powerful hurricane. Watch this become a cat4. I thought you went to Eastern...which was so much infinitely better than here with you and rainstorm making it awesome... and were never coming back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 It had better curve by 70W or it's going to be crazy along the entire East coast, since Katia is going to be AT LEAST a cat. 3 by then. The other scary thing is that the current position and 5 day track of Katia is very close to the tracks of: Sept. 1944 Donna 1960 Gloria 1985 Andrew 1992 Floyd 1999 Isabel 2003 Frances 2004 The key may be whether the strong trough that will bring the cold front through by Labor Day will pick up Katia. If not, the big high building in behind the front could start curving Katia back more to the west for at least a while. That's what happened with Andrew. It looked like the trough was going to pick it up (it was only a TS at 25/65), and many forecasters in Florida had given up on it. One VERY well-known and popular met in Miami even said on Friday: "go enjoy your weekend". Then it turned west, strengthened like mad, and the rest is history. Let's hope that sort of thing doesn't happen again.....ever. Glenn I honestly don't think a list of such huge hurricanes that prompt such a strong reaction in people's minds is either necessary or useful when Katia is currently just as similar as many more storms that have recurved out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Curiously enough, he is still working there and very popular. Glenn Do you by any chance have any insights/data as to how - or if - Irene had a meaningful impact on the thermocline N of the PR archipelago, and up off the SE Coast? Should a dire solution materialize of this, just wondering what kind of OHC waits in store for Katia - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Do you by any chance have any insights/data as to how - or if - Irene had a meaningful impact on the thermocline N of the PR archipelago, and up off the SE Coast? Should a dire solution materialize of this, just wondering what kind of OHC waits in store for Katia - this one shows the archipelago thermocline thingie http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/cyclone/data/at.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 It had better curve by 70W or it's going to be crazy along the entire East coast, since Katia is going to be AT LEAST a cat. 3 by then. The other scary thing is that the current position and 5 day track of Katia is very close to the tracks of: Sept. 1944 Donna 1960 Gloria 1985 Andrew 1992 Floyd 1999 Isabel 2003 Frances 2004 The key may be whether the strong trough that will bring the cold front through by Labor Day will pick up Katia. If not, the big high building in behind the front could start curving Katia back more to the west for at least a while. That's what happened with Andrew. It looked like the trough was going to pick it up (it was only a TS at 25/65), and many forecasters in Florida had given up on it. One VERY well-known and popular met in Miami even said on Friday: "go enjoy your weekend". Then it turned west, strengthened like mad, and the rest is history. Let's hope that sort of thing doesn't happen again.....ever. Glenn It's also similar to: Karen 1995 Humberto 1995 Isidore 1996 Felix 2001 Fabian 2003 Bret 1987 Gabrielle 1989 Christine 1990 Arlene 1963 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I honestly don't think a list of such huge hurricanes that prompt such a strong reaction in people's minds is either necessary or useful when Katia is currently just as similar as many more storms that have recurved out to sea. You may notice that I posted this on a private bulletin board, and have not mentioned this on-air, or in a blog, vlog, or tweet. Yes, it's too early to make that public, but I figured you folks could handle it, specifically as a discussion tool. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 You may notice that I posted this on a private bulletin board, and have not mentioned this on-air, or in a blog, vlog, or tweet. Yes, it's too early to make that public, but I figured you folks could handle it, specifically as a discussion tool. Glenn Best intentions I understood what you meant... This is my own opinion, but one I hope is rooted in logic - these lists of storms that did this or that, that pertain precisely to given coordinates strike me as less than meaningful in general, either way. I'm not brain dead either; I do see interest there. But for me, 50 or even 100 nautical miles N or S of a given position has never - to my awareness admittedly - been shown scientifically to not be attributed to anything other than "noise" in the background maelstrom of the atmospheric circulation. A storm could move N of Katlia and be written off, only to move WSW for 1,500 miles by a powerful ridge eruption, and then what do you have? But, I think what you were driving at is that Irene being so fresh in people's minds, a Cat 3 W of 70 would be a bit dramatic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 It's also similar to: I think his point (or at least, what I've gleaned from his comment) was that the northerly component to the movement from the get-go doesn't necessarily preclude a non-recurving track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 It's also similar to: Karen 1995 Humberto 1995 Isidore 1996 Felix 2001 Fabian 2003 Bret 1987 Gabrielle 1989 Christine 1990 Arlene 1963 Karen curved at 52W Humberto curved at 45W Isidore curved at 43W Felix curved at 47W Fabian started curving around 62W Bret didn't even survive past 55W Gabrielle curved before 60W Arlene curved at 70W Only Arlene is a true analog, since it is clear Katia will get to at least 60W according to all guidance, and still moving WNW. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 So you see this as a possible threat Glenn? I'm not sure how much more water the Neshaminy Creek can handle in my backyard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I don't think anyone is saying it's a threat yet, just to watch the storm and don't write it off. Definitely nice to have a tropical system to track/watch regardless of it hitting land or going out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 There is so much tension in this thread. Why don't we just wait until the weekend to really start considering exact tracks be it ots, eastcoast, northeast, gulf, whatever. Like a local met "yes there is a chance, but that wont be until like ever. so just wait" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Plokoon111 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Yeah it is interesting watching these storms as they grow, and change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The key may be whether the strong trough that will bring the cold front through by Labor Day will pick up Katia. If not, the big high building in behind the front could start curving Katia back more to the west for at least a while. That's what happened with Andrew. I strongly agree. Some of the earlier guidance and also a few of the hurricane models have occasionally bent the storm back to the west. Indeed, NHC was concerned about such a possibility in last night's 11 pm discussion. there's somewhat of a subtle hint on both the 12z UKMET and GFDL about perhaps somewhat of a turn more to the west, but we'll see. Hopefully, the cold front will pick it up and sweep it out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 It's also similar to: Karen 1995 Humberto 1995 Isidore 1996 Felix 2001 Fabian 2003 Bret 1987 Gabrielle 1989 Christine 1990 Arlene 1963 Hugo89, Almost all of those storms probably are not relevant given the current 500 mb pattern and the forecast pattern over the next 3-7 days. All but Arlene were early recurvers. Christine (1973) was already headed northwestward at Katia's longitude. If Katia is to recurve--and I think that's a 60% probability--I suspect it will do so later than all those storms, except for Arlene (1963). Analog storms that recurved might include Arlene (1963) and Luis (1995), Bret was a tropical storm that fizzled out. The guidance strongly suggests that Katia will become a major hurricane. Historical climatology suggests Category 4 or even 5 is a distinct possibility. Already, Katia is stronger than Bret ever was and it appears to be continuing to strengthen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 It's also similar to: Karen 1995 Humberto 1995 Isidore 1996 Felix 2001 Fabian 2003 Bret 1987 Gabrielle 1989 Christine 1990 Arlene 1963 Edouard 1996 is another that "sorta" fits the bill of recurve...although it was a bit more of a horseshoe track instead of a gradual recurve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Is there any credence to the idea that as the storm strengthens they tend to slow down a bit? It seems the majority of the intensity models are somewhat below what the mets here seem to think is the top end range for this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 http://philstropical...lysis-on-irene/ Here are my thoughts on Katia this evening... I'm thinking that conditions look favorable for intensification the next 48-54 hours and I'm forecasting rapid intensification into a Major Hurricane during this time. Thereafter, an upper level trough which is well modeled on the ECWMF will likely induce some southwesterly upper level flow over the system which could halt or even cause some weakening during the 72-96 hour period. Thus, I'm not expecting a Category 4 or greater hurricane over the next 5 days. Track-wise I'm north of the NHC in the short term due to the expectation that Katia will be a stronger storm than expected in the short term. I'm firmly in the camp that this will ultimately recurve as it it just too far north by the end of the forecast period to not feel the effects of the strong trough expected to drop down from the great lakes beyond 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 I think his point (or at least, what I've gleaned from his comment) was that the northerly component to the movement from the get-go doesn't necessarily preclude a non-recurving track. And my point was that the track of past storms isn't necessarily indicative of the present setup. I guess my pitch had too much altitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Of course as soon as I post my forecast, it looks like a dry air intrusion might be underway... lets see if the convection can hang on tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 the ducklips of IR imagery...put it at an angle and it supposedly looks hotter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Of course as soon as I post my forecast, it looks like a dry air intrusion might be underway... lets see if the convection can hang on tonight. Good post here... I noticed this my self earlier on. It does seem almost immediately since we've seen some warming tops and less "cdo" compact look. If we look here: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/salmain.php?∏=splitEW&time= there is some SAL as well precariously situated N. If Katia were wildly intensifying it would probably ingest this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 00z GFS brings a system into FL GA SC & NC, but it aint Katia Edit: Oh crap lots of rain. Looks to have gone frontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 This is interesting the 0z is spitting out more precip in the Gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 The 11 am forecast track has a total fish vibe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 This is interesting the 0z is spitting out more precip in the Gulf. There is a system supposedly coming out of the gulf on both the euro and gfs (0z) that show a feature coming from the gulf into the FL, SC, GA, NC regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Euro does some weird things with Katia. Takes it to Bermuda and then "phases" it with a system off the east coast. also has a storm in the gulf that meanders there for days before hitting TX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted August 31, 2011 Share Posted August 31, 2011 Euro does some weird things with Katia. Takes it to Bermuda and then "phases" it with a system off the east coast. also has a storm in the gulf that meanders there for days before hitting TX I wouldn't exactly call it weird as it looks to get "picked up" after doing so with the ridge and a trough. Katia is still way too far out to work out the specifics and odder looking to me are two systems going two different directions in the gulf around the same timing. One going to Tx/Mex and one going towards FL/SE. Edit: just looked at the Euro again and it does look like a weird sweep with the system off the East Coast that seems to be coming from the gulf into the SE areas and "merging" with Katia so to speak. Wunderground has the Euro in shorter intervals but only goes out to 180 hrs or so. :[ Anyone with 6 hr intervals (higher reso graphics) farther out who wants to explain whats exactly happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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