k*** Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Some quick thoughts: 1. Yesterday, I noted that the stronger storms that developed in the region in which Katia formed had less chance of recurvature than the weaker ones, noting that none of the storms that failed to recurve were tropical storms. The 12z Euro is depicting a markedly weaker storm. Not too surprisingly, it turns the storm much more quickly than the 0z run did (around 64°W vs.71°W on the earlier run). I didn't catch that yesterday, but it's interesting since it bucks the conventional wisdom that a stronger system would move poleward faster. I wonder what makes this sample do the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Can someone comment about the 12z Euros initialization of Katia, compared to 00z and 12z yesterday...and compared to obs as of this morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I didn't catch that yesterday, but it's interesting since it bucks the conventional wisdom that a stronger system would move poleward faster. I wonder what makes this sample do the opposite. Maybe the wishcast theory about strong cyclones outflow and subsidence poleward enhancing the ridge and "making their own weather" isn't completely invalid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I didn't catch that yesterday, but it's interesting since it bucks the conventional wisdom that a stronger system would move poleward faster. I wonder what makes this sample do the opposite. Winds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I didn't catch that yesterday, but it's interesting since it bucks the conventional wisdom that a stronger system would move poleward faster. I wonder what makes this sample do the opposite. On that front, I'm going to guess that shear/dry air from westerlies further south may have something to do with it, whereas the stronger storms had a better Bermuda High north of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 I didn't catch that yesterday, but it's interesting since it bucks the conventional wisdom that a stronger system would move poleward faster. I wonder what makes this sample do the opposite. I'm still not sure about why that should be. Maybe sample size plays a role. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 On that front, I'm going to guess that shear/dry air from westerlies further south may have something to do with it, whereas the stronger storms had a better Bermuda High north of it. I guess that makes some sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The TVCN, GFDL, GFDN, HWRF, and NOGAPS are the only ones to support your observations. Not exactly the Hall of Fame for Hurricane Modeling, there. Okay, the consensus track (TVCN) is probably one of the best pieces of guidance out there. And the GFDL and HWRF are solid hurricane models. Trends are trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 And the GFDL and HWRF are solid hurricane models. They're the only hurricane models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Okay, the consensus track (TVCN) is probably one of the best pieces of guidance out there. And the GFDL and HWRF are solid hurricane models. Trends are trends You do realize that both the GFDL and HWRF are worthless in terms of projecting long range synoptic features, right? If you really want to try to figure out if there is any remote threat to the US, look at the GFS, Euro, CMC, and UKMET... only one of which you showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 You do realize that both the GFDL and HWRF are worthless in terms of projecting long range synoptic features, right? If you really want to try to figure out if there is any remote threat to the US, look at the GFS, Euro, CMC, and UKMET... only one of which you showed. Agree...however, just a note....with Irene 4-5 days out, the models were certainly demonstrating a much more westward track, yet in the end, the storm barely made LF south of 35N....and here we are, some week or so from any potential LF concerns....in model word things can change quite drastically at these leads. IMO, the value of model changes and swings this far out (either west, east, slower or faster) is minimal, due to the fact that the overall longwave pattern over the US, the eventual evolution and trasition of the GOM system, and the STR all can still (and probably will) verify much differently than what is depicted by model consensus today. That said, chances for a US LF, IMO are a few percentage points below climo at this point.....and frankly, any TC 6-10 days out can only be forecasted better than climo by a few percent at best even with models and pattern recognition skills. Of course, climo loses it's muscle quite quickly at shorter leads.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 AL, 12, 2011083018, , BEST, 0, 125N, 346W, 50, 997, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 1012, 180, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KATIA, D, Strengthening quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Katia is ready to take off, potentially catastrophic hurricane in her infancy stages. Perhaps the NE Lesser Antilles Islands the main landfall location in danger of a landfall potential with Katia, not good as she could be nearing category 4/5 status by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Agree that this seems to be organizing rather quickly... although the latest microwave doesn't show the convection encircling the center, its building back to the east which is a sign that the easterly shear has led up somewhat with good banding on the western semi-circle as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Katia is ready to take off, potentially catastrophic hurricane in her infancy stages. Perhaps the NE Lesser Antilles Islands the main landfall location in danger of a landfall potential with Katia, not good as she could be nearing category 4/5 status by that time. Its current heading strongly argues against even a Lesser Antilles hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The word "catastrophic" is being used way too much lately. It's becoming a meaningless word on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Katia is ready to take off, potentially catastrophic hurricane in her infancy stages. Perhaps the NE Lesser Antilles Islands the main landfall location in danger of a landfall potential with Katia, not good as she could be nearing category 4/5 status by that time. Huh??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Since no one has broke out a "model thread" for Katia, here's a depiction of a bit west of the consensus track....but again, it goes to my point of still how much variability there still is at these leads: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kenny G Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 5 pm advisory... Katia has strengthened to a 60 mph/997 mb tropical storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 1700 NHC disco staying south of Euro track - for now... NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...A WEAKNESSIN THE RIDGE PRODUCED BY A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE RIGHT WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND SOUTH OF THE LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torontoweather14 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Latest 18z Early Hurricane Models: Track: Intensity: I find it really great that there are so many pro mets on this forum. I want to ask you guys a lot of questions, but I don't want to bug all of you too much. I'm still new to this forum, but how can you Personally Message someone, if you can, and can you message anyone?... Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The word "catastrophic" is being used way too much lately. It's becoming a meaningless word on this forum. This may very well be a catastrophic fish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Agree...however, just a note....with Irene 4-5 days out, the models were certainly demonstrating a much more westward track, yet in the end, the storm barely made LF south of 35N....and here we are, some week or so from any potential LF concerns....in model word things can change quite drastically at these leads. IMO, the value of model changes and swings this far out (either west, east, slower or faster) is minimal, due to the fact that the overall longwave pattern over the US, the eventual evolution and trasition of the GOM system, and the STR all can still (and probably will) verify much differently than what is depicted by model consensus today. That said, chances for a US LF, IMO are a few percentage points below climo at this point.....and frankly, any TC 6-10 days out can only be forecasted better than climo by a few percent at best even with models and pattern recognition skills. Of course, climo loses it's muscle quite quickly at shorter leads.... This is an excellent point, and I think goes to why trends of even good models only have so much applicability. About a week ago there was a lot of gnashing of teeth about the eastward trend of the models and how it was starting to look like Irene might even miss SNE. This is still a long way out, and the EC ensemble is quite a bit SW of the operational run and from what I have seen others post the GFS EnKF is pretty good guidance and it is quite a bit SW of the EC as well. As you say, the odds are probably a bit below climo at this point, but it is way too far out to call anything definitively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 This is an excellent point, and I think goes to why trends of even good models only have so much applicability. About a week ago there was a lot of gnashing of teeth about the eastward trend of the models and how it was starting to look like Irene might even miss SNE. This is still a long way out, and the EC ensemble is quite a bit SW of the operational run and from what I have seen others post the GFS EnKF is pretty good guidance and it is quite a bit SW of the EC as well. As you say, the odds are probably a bit below climo at this point, but it is way too far out to call anything definitively. I agree. At this time, I'm thinking that there is probably a greater than 60% chance of recurvature (possibly between 65W-70W), but a landfall threat remains a possibility. Katia's tracking close to 280° since 11 a.m. has put it somewhat south of some of the earlier guidance. FWIW, it looks like NHC made a subtle shift in its forecast track somewhat to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 The 18z model spaghetti tracker seems like a pretty tight grouping. Sort of pointless to extrapolate to where's she's going at this point, but interesting enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Historical probability based only on current position continues to decrease: 23% chance of U.S. landfall as any intensity 19% chance of U.S. landfall as a hurricane 11% chance of U.S. landfall as a major hurricane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 It had better curve by 70W or it's going to be crazy along the entire East coast, since Katia is going to be AT LEAST a cat. 3 by then. The other scary thing is that the current position and 5 day track of Katia is very close to the tracks of: Sept. 1944 Donna 1960 Gloria 1985 Andrew 1992 Floyd 1999 Isabel 2003 Frances 2004 The key may be whether the strong trough that will bring the cold front through by Labor Day will pick up Katia. If not, the big high building in behind the front could start curving Katia back more to the west for at least a while. That's what happened with Andrew. It looked like the trough was going to pick it up (it was only a TS at 25/65), and many forecasters in Florida had given up on it. One VERY well-known and popular met in Miami even said on Friday: "go enjoy your weekend". Then it turned west, strengthened like mad, and the rest is history. Let's hope that sort of thing doesn't happen again.....ever. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 It had better curve by 70W or it's going to be crazy along the entire East coast, since Katia is going to be AT LEAST a cat. 3 by then. The other scary thing is that the current position and 5 day track of Katia is very close to the tracks of: Sept. 1944 Donna 1960 Gloria 1985 Andrew 1992 Floyd 1999 Isabel 2003 Frances 2004 The key may be whether the strong trough that will bring the cold front through by Labor Day will pick up Katia. If not, the big high building in behind the front could start curving Katia back more to the west for at least a while. That's what happened with Andrew. It looked like the trough was going to pick it up (it was only a TS at 25/65), and many forecasters in Florida had given up on it. One VERY well-known and popular met in Miami even said on Friday: "go enjoy your weekend". Then it turned west, strengthened like mad, and the rest is history. Let's hope that sort of thing doesn't happen again.....ever. Glenn Not to derail the thread but that is funny - haha: "go enjoy your weekend". I wonder what his post-mortem analysis featured. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneschwartz Posted August 30, 2011 Share Posted August 30, 2011 Not to derail the thread but that is funny - haha: "go enjoy your weekend". I wonder what his post-mortem analysis featured. Curiously enough, he is still working there and very popular. Glenn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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