Ruls Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Looks interesting. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Looks interesting. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo_atl.shtml 92L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 One word: FISH Not necessarily. This one is coming off at a lower latitude than even Irene... around 10 deg N... and actually has a motion that is south of due west. Several of the global models that are tracking this into the open Atlantic are initializing too far northwest on the storm already, because of the lead impulses ahead of it... and the overall pressure envelope in the ITCZ is so low. It is way far and away too early to just assume this is going to fish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 One word: FISH Please don't post if you are not going to contribute anything to the discussion. The initial guidance does not scream fish. Granted though this is a pretty bare bones suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fred Gossage Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 It's possible. It's just way premature to jump to that conclusion yet, especially when it's showing common climatological signals that we've developed over decades of hurricane forecasting... that point toward the system not easily recurving... such as coming offshore at such a low latitude, having a south of due west motion... which means it's actually slightly losing latitude, etc. Things like this are MUCH more important than, for example, one run of a Euro or GFS model prog at 240 hours out, or something similar to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Past couple of Euro runs have been hinting on 92L traveling wnw across the atlantic while strengthening into a formidable major cane. tonight 00z run has much stronger ridging pushing 92L further west than the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Orange - 30% 1. A TROPICAL WAVE CENTERED A FEW HUNDRED MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPEVERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF THIS WAVE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. Beginning to see it on the Precip. Water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Hurricane Katia in the making... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 So what does the pattern look like for this one? Margusity is honking another E coast threat I'm not a pro-met, but from the looks of it my guess is not a U.S. threat, but it's so far down the road, you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I'm not a pro-met, but from the looks of it my guess is not a U.S. threat, but it's so far down the road, you never know. Anyone calling this a fish or anything else has already forgotten how much the models changed with Irene. She went from a GOM no way she recurves to a NC landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 06Z lol @ the BAMS. I'd like to see that happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Henry Marguisity is saying the euro shows this over NYC on 9/11 . does anyone have the link to back up his statement ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Henry Marguisity is saying the euro shows this over NYC on 9/11 . does anyone have the link to back up his statement ? Wow. I seriously hope he didn't say anything like that. First off, the EURO does not run that far out in time. Second if that's some sort of extrapolation, that's just grossly morbid to mention on that particular date and location. Here is the most recent EURO…note that the latest frame only goes out to the evening of 9/6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Henry Marguisity is saying the euro shows this over NYC on 9/11 . does anyone have the link to back up his statement ? I'd like a link to where he said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I'd like a link to where he said that. He never said that. What he said was the euro showed the storm taking a similar track to irene, which remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkSC Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Models have been trending west with this over the last 48 hours. Definitely one to monitor. It's quite a bit more likely than the average Cape Verde system to be a U.S. threat given the anticipated S of W motion and the fact that the Euro shows the mean trough in the Midwest rather than the east coast with strongly positive NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazess556 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 12z GFS looks like it has stronger ridging and is more similar to the 00z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I guess it all depends on the Atlantic ridge, most forecast seem to be predicated on tropical systems following along it's periphery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Philadelphia Wx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Henry Margusity said this: "What bothers me about the next hurricane, the Euro model shows it right next to NYC on 9/11 which would be a terrible terrible thing to happen." He said it on his Henry Margusity Facebook Fan Club page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timstobrazil Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Facebook message heard round the world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCsnow17 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Henry Margusity said this: "What bothers me about the next hurricane, the Euro model shows it right next to NYC on 9/11 which would be a terrible terrible thing to happen." He said it on his Henry Margusity Facebook Fan Club page. Ok makes sense. I thought he was referring to his recent video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Am I correct that the Euro only goes out to 240 hours? How can he even say this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Am I correct that the Euro only goes out to 240 hours? How can he even say this? He claimed to have it out to past 300 in another post. EDIT: attached hm_fb082811.bmp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Facebook message heard round the world I'm sorry, but this is borderline irresponsible. We know Henry M.'s tendencies, but the general public doesn't. It's one thing to show something like that for kicks, but to lead with "What bothers me about the next hurricane..." (it's an INVEST last I checked) is in poor taste. Is anyone else here "bothered" by a 300hr prog and, if so, would you feel the need to use a position of some influence to share it with everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Yeah we totally don't need a National Weather Service. Let's trust the safety and well-being of 300 million people to this garbage-spewing ratings whore instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kpantz Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Yeah we totally don't need a National Weather Service. Let's trust the safety and well-being of 300 million people to this garbage-spewing ratings whore instead. Now I didn't want to turn this into a Henry/AccuWx bashing thread. I just felt moved to object to what he wrote. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
negative-nao Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 This is what he posted on facebook: [/url] Henry Margusity Fan ClubWhat bothers me about the next hurricane, the Euro model shows it right next to NYC on 9/11 which would be a terrible terrible thing to happen. Henry Margusity Fan Club We have the Euro model out past 300 hours in the pro site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I'm sorry, but this is borderline irresponsible. We know Henry M.'s tendencies, but the general public doesn't. It's one thing to show something like that for kicks, but to lead with "What bothers me about the next hurricane..." (it's an INVEST last I checked) is in poor taste. Is anyone else here "bothered" by a 300hr prog and, if so, would you feel the need to use a position of some influence to share it with everyone? This. That's why I asked for a link. I had to see it to believe it. Why would he say something so alarmist regarding a 300 hour prog. Henry seems like a nice guy, but that fb post wasn't smart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Riptide Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 This is the long-range euro but i'm pretty sure it would be hard for "Katia" to recurve. There is an obnoxious blocking pattern over New England and that weakness is way too shallow to recurve "Katia". It's too far out to even consider though, obviously......HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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