NorthShoreWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 "For a region stretching from Chicago to New York City, the period from December 18 through Christmas may be their snowiest of the season with clippers lining up and marching down" "As for the East Coast, you may see a series of Nor'easters push up the coast as the trough slides into the Mid-Atlantic from the Midwest while out over the Rockies, the cold and snowy pattern takes a break. A strongly negative NAO will help bring snow to the East Coast." Mark vogan http://markvoganweat...long-range.html Is he one of these guys? http://images.wikia.com/aliens/images/7/7e/40905738_vogon203.jpg http://farm1.static.flickr.com/24/60909154_82eebc6e9d.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This pattern isn't happening in mid January. Its happening in early December. Not that HPN's average high really is below freezing in January. I'm certain it is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 38-40? Where? The jersey shore? HPN has an average high below freezing for mid january and an average low in the teens You must be getting your information at fantasyland.com because White Plain's averages are 35/21 for January. Even Boston's average high is around 36 for January. You've got to go into the interior/mountains to get average highs of 32F or below for January. Mt. Pocono's average high for Jan is 31F, so I'm pretty darn sure HPN doesn't average the same. http://www.weather.com/outlook/health/fitness/wxclimatology/monthly/graph/USNY1590 Actually the Mid-atlantic averages in the 40s for January, upper 40s in Washington DC. The 30s start in CNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Not that HPN's average high really is below freezing in January. I'm certain it is not. It isn't...'81-'10 the coldest avg high at the airport at 400 feet is 36F...it was as low as 34F at its coldest point in Jan in the '61-'90 mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It isn't...'81-'10 the coldest avg high at the airport at 400 feet is 36F...it was as low as 34F at its coldest point in Jan in the '61-'90 mean. Yeah I thought even the 35F was a bit generous for them. generally 35-36 just inland from the cities and 37-40 in the NYC-BOS corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It isn't...'81-'10 the coldest avg high at the airport at 400 feet is 36F...it was as low as 34F at its coldest point in Jan in the '61-'90 mean. Makes more sense. HPN is basically coastal plain, as are certain other allegedly alpine areas in lower Westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yeah I thought even the 35F was a bit generous for them. generally 35-36 just inland from the cities and 37-40 in the NYC-BOS corridor. Coldest daily highs in the 1981-2010 mean for select cities (all occur in mid to late January): BOS: 36F NYC: 39F HPN: 36F EWR: 39F FWN: 35F (Sussex NJ) Now the '81-'10 norms are pretty warm...esp compared to recent winters. The 1980s and 1990s were really warm and replaced the colder '70s in the new norms...but even going with '71-'00...there are no below freezing average highs until you get into interior SNE at elevation (ORH avg high is 31F in '81-'00 and as low as 30F in '61-'90....and have to go even higher to MPO in the NJ/PA region) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 gfs brings in -8 to -12 850s around 12/3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Coldest daily highs in the 1981-2010 mean for select cities (all occur in mid to late January): BOS: 36F NYC: 39F HPN: 36F EWR: 39F FWN: 35F (Sussex NJ) Now the '81-'10 norms are pretty warm...esp compared to recent winters. The 1980s and 1990s were really warm and replaced the colder '70s in the new norms...but even going with '71-'00...there are no below freezing average highs until you get into interior SNE at elevation (ORH avg high is 31F in '81-'00 and as low as 30F in '61-'90....and have to go even higher to MPO in the NJ/PA region) Just out of curiousity, what were the coldest average highs for NYC, EWR and BOS? Also, where can I find this data you're referrencing re the various 30 year norms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 0z GFS says it gets colder by the 1st week of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 and stays cold after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 and stays cold after that. With 2 chances of clipper systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 High temps is not what gives a day its "normal" status.. if you have a 7 day stretch of 37-40 with lows in the 20's then a coastal pops with a high of 31 and a low of 29 chances are thats still "normal".. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Beautiful Thanksgiving weekend coming up. 55-60 and sunny by day, 30s at night. Get out and enjoy before winter sets in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Looks like a weak +PNA/-NAO in the long range on the GFS. Beautiful setup, which starts in the 1st week of December. It's transient but beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 High temps is not what gives a day its "normal" status.. if you have a 7 day stretch of 37-40 with lows in the 20's then a coastal pops with a high of 31 and a low of 29 chances are thats still "normal".. Yes but that is not the crux of the argument...the argument is what type of winter or month can produce snow...you will very rarely see warm winters produce big snowfalls in most areas. There are always exceptions, but its not what you look for. You want a good solid pattern to maximize every shortwave threat. In a warm pattern you are hoping to roll snake eyes and most times that fails. Occasionally it works, but again, meteorology is a game of probabilities...and you do not want to be playing the game where you need to roll snake eyes to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Just out of curiousity, what were the coldest average highs for NYC, EWR and BOS? Also, where can I find this data you're referrencing re the various 30 year norms. Isotherm, go to WRCC site here: http://www.wrcc.dri....arch/index.html As an example, here is NYC (central park): http://www.wrcc.dri....iMAIN.pl?ny5801 Now on the left side bar you will see those climate periods and click on "daily tabular data" and it will give the averages for each day. Keep in mind the airport data will be much more accurate than a local coop...they are more reliable, but some of the better well kept coops can be useful too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 ECMWF has a Quebec Block, which might be a wee bit surpressive, but the ridge in Canada might not be of arctic air origin.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Isotherm, go to WRCC site here: http://www.wrcc.dri....arch/index.html As an example, here is NYC (central park): http://www.wrcc.dri....iMAIN.pl?ny5801 Now on the left side bar you will see those climate periods and click on "daily tabular data" and it will give the averages for each day. Keep in mind the airport data will be much more accurate than a local coop...they are more reliable, but some of the better well kept coops can be useful too. Will - great site, thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 That gfs run didnt get me going much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 1-3" from a shortwave rotating on the south side of a continent-sized Polar Vortex. Lock it in. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/MRF_0z/f300.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 That gfs run didnt get me going much. better than some recent runs and better than raging AK vortex and -pna with no end in sight. baby steps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 1-3" from a shortwave rotating on the south side of a continent-sized Polar Vortex. Lock it in. http://www.meteo.psu...MRF_0z/f300.gif Looks like positive heights are building towards Greenland as well. Love the PNA spike in the pacific on the GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 00Z RGEM Lifted Index 18Z Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 00Z NAM BUFKIT KLGA sounding for November 23rd 14Z. Meager mid-level lapse rates but a TQ index of 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think the coldest average high for NYC from 71-90 was 37. Did it really jump 2 degrees to 39 with the shift forward of 10 years in the 30 year record? And lol at all that cold air on the GFS. I thought Canada was supposed to be void of any cold air! The whole country is covered in a -20C isotherm lol. Extended range model forecasting FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I think the coldest average high for NYC from 71-90 was 37. Did it really jump 2 degrees to 39 with the shift forward of 10 years in the 30 year record? And lol at all that cold air on the GFS. I thought Canada was supposed to be void of any cold air! The whole country is covered in a -20C isotherm lol. Extended range model forecasting FTW. Yes it did. Also using the OP GFS longterm is the same reaction you'd get if it showed a torch during a regime that favored cold and snow. I.E. useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Yes it did. Also using the OP GFS longterm is the same reaction you'd get if it showed a torch during a regime that favored cold and snow. I.E. useless. Both of your points are depressing. Reality FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 That 1-3" of ice and sleet lasted 15 days longer than the 19" Feb 2006 blizzard. Great thing about sleet is it has some impressive staying power due to the higher water content.Plus it basically looks like snow covering the ground. 4+ inches here Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.