TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Transient trough, really not a good H5 signature. You have a massive ridge where you want the 50/50 to be which not only keeps storms on the coast but via confluence, helps reinforce a cold high over canada. -PNA still weakly in place with a +EPO as well. Not that great LOL, put your KU book down, not every storm has to be the same 500 pattern and isn't going to match your precious KU's. Also, you don't need a 50/50 with a huge blocked up cutoff like that., you're not even anchoring in a HP, the cold is pushed underneath the block from the flow out of Canada. And transient? That trough is there for several days, its a blocking pattern, regardless where the block sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That block you guys are posting is extremely transient and not worth looking at, really...when you loop the gefs height anomalies you can see that it's gone pretty quickly. its there on the euro for several days, why must everything be around for a weak to matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 We're not central Quebec. Last winter for all intents and purposes had a very cold December and quite cold January and it was very snowy. I can't think of even one snow event that was marginal and/or very wet. Ice storms don't count of course. 09-10 is the winter where it got barely cold enough to snow, not last winter. Even the late February 4 inches fell with temps in the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Just the late January storm, but we knew that one was going to change back to snow. The other 2 January storms and 12/26 there were no concerns about precip type or whether it would be cold enough to stick. But yeah to me marginal is 31 and above in this part of the country. Anything below 30 is a 'cold' storm. Both big Feb storms in '10 were near that or above for most of the storm. Only on the morning of 2/26 did we drop into the 20s briefly. We're not central Quebec. Last winter for all intents and purposes had a very cold December and quite cold January and it was very snowy. I can't think of even one snow event that was marginal and/or very wet. Ice storms don't count of course. 09-10 is the winter where it got barely cold enough to snow, not last winter. Even the late February 4 inches fell with temps in the upper 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 October freak storm aside, i really can't wait to track out first legitimate snowstorm of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 the 12/2-12/5 looks to be very active. 18Z GFS shows this on top of the euro and gfs from earlier today and it continues to look colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Overall I wouldn't write off the early December period to produce something minor/moderate especially NW of NYC via the +PNA induced amplification. Then we turn back warmer probably for at least 10 days, until some blocking and/or more favorable MJO kick in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Overall I wouldn't write off the early December period to produce something minor/moderate especially NW of NYC via the +PNA induced amplification. Then we turn back warmer probably for at least 10 days, until some blocking and/or more favorable MJO kick in. agreed. These closed 500 lows can be sneaky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 People are too worried about transient vs. sustained. Makes no difference. Temporary conditions can produce perfectly timed storms. Same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 People are too worried about transient vs. sustained. Makes no difference. Temporary conditions can produce perfectly timed storms. Same result. people also need to realize every pattern isn't going to produce a KU storm. I know people don't remember this because it hasn't happened in a while, but we can get snow without a KU setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 People just need to take a chill pill and watch the change unfold. The first week of December looks good for a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 "For a region stretching from Chicago to New York City, the period from December 18 through Christmas may be their snowiest of the season with clippers lining up and marching down" "As for the East Coast, you may see a series of Nor'easters push up the coast as the trough slides into the Mid-Atlantic from the Midwest while out over the Rockies, the cold and snowy pattern takes a break. A strongly negative NAO will help bring snow to the East Coast." Mark vogan http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 yes dec was cold but nothing to show for until boxing day. jan was coldish but it was up and down, and the storms themselves werent cold, just marginal. feb and mar were terrible. point is...we dont need vodka cold for 3 months straight to have a good snowy season. it can be up and down, or just a good stretch of a couple weeks with well timed systems to deliver. Exactly!! I dont understand this obsession with extreme cold. I always thought normal to slightly above normal temps are ideal for snowy winters.. Otherwise its either supression city or all out torch.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We are due for a sleetstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 We are due for a sleetstorm. I wish! It takes forever to melt and is a disaster to plow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 this year we will get the KU of KU's..i called it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 this year we will get the KU of KU's..i called it ok Chris L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I wish! It takes forever to melt and is a disaster to plow! It took me 3 hours to shovel outside my house on Feb 14,2007.19 and sleet isn't fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It took me 3 hours to shovel outside my house on Feb 14,2007.19 and sleet isn't fun at all. I enjoyed it greatly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I enjoyed it greatly! Same here because I have never saw it happen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I always thought normal to slightly above normal temps are ideal for snowy winters.. That'll work for interior New England, but for I-95 where average highs never fall below 38-40F, we generally need at least a slightly below normal temp regime for good snows, although there have certainly been notable exceptions to the contrary, especially with powerhouse lows which dynamically cool us to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 It took me 3 hours to shovel outside my house on Feb 14,2007.19 and sleet isn't fun at all. That 1-3" of ice and sleet lasted 15 days longer than the 19" Feb 2006 blizzard. Great thing about sleet is it has some impressive staying power due to the higher water content.Plus it basically looks like snow covering the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 That 1-3" of ice and sleet lasted 15 days longer than the 19" Feb 2006 blizzard. Great thing about sleet is it has some impressive staying power due to the higher water content.Plus it basically looks like snow covering the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 That'll work for interior New England, but for I-95 where average highs never fall below 38-40F, we generally need at least a slightly below normal temp regime for good snows, although there have certainly been notable exceptions to the contrary, especially with powerhouse lows which dynamically cool us to freezing. Well not everyone lives on 95 in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 That'll work for interior New England, but for I-95 where average highs never fall below 38-40F, we generally need at least a slightly below normal temp regime for good snows, although there have certainly been notable exceptions to the contrary, especially with powerhouse lows which dynamically cool us to freezing. 38-40? Where? The jersey shore? HPN has an average high below freezing for mid january and an average low in the teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Maine is going to get hammered. Road trip anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 38-40? Where? The jersey shore? HPN has an average high below freezing for mid january and an average low in the teens For MBY I never want to see extreme departures cause that only means one thing.... Suprression city! Ill take average to slightly above any day of the week.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 38-40? Where? The jersey shore? HPN has an average high below freezing for mid january and an average low in the teens This pattern isn't happening in mid January. Its happening in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Exactly!! I dont understand this obsession with extreme cold. I always thought normal to slightly above normal temps are ideal for snowy winters.. Otherwise its either supression city or all out torch.. Not for around here. Here are the average temp anomalies for NYC's top ten snowiest winters. You can see we average solidly below normal (by 3-4 degrees), as does most of New England even. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Not really for around here. Here are the average temp anomalies for NYC's top ten snowiest winters. You can see we average solidly below normal (by 3-4 degrees). Nobody outside of extreme NNE near the Canadian border actually wants an above average winter for temps if they want a lot of snow. Even there its borderline. Once you get far enough north and/or high enough in elevation, then precip becomes more important, but you still want below avg temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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