Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Explain please how you think it is a BUST No blocking showing up...any cold is in and out. Can we get snow? Sure. Just wont stick around long. Dec climo is not favorable for snow anyway....we've been spoiled the past 5-7 yrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 what in the world happens to all that cold arctic air in the long range.. it looks like the -20 isotherm at 850 retreats all the way to the north pole.. lol .. that does not look like a typical temp distribution for early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The height anomolies in Canada the last week of November are insane.... looks like they are easily 3 SDs on the plus side for a good chunk of real estate..... and although there is basically no arctic air to be found, it will be interesting how the evolution of the cutoff takes shape over the middle and southern U.S.. there are some pretty good negative anomolies forecasted... should be at least enough cold air to make it rather interesting.. I just can't get over the lack of true arctic air. It's amazing how that vortex of low anomolies over Alaska just sort of sinks south and just dies a slow death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 No blocking showing up...any cold is in and out. Can we get snow? Sure. Just wont stick around long. Dec climo is not favorable for snow anyway....we've been spoiled the past 5-7 yrs. yeah, because the only way it can be cold is with blocking. You should troll less and learn more, you would be a better poster. We had epic blocking end of february and march 2009 and no cold air to show for it. Fact is, we have improvements out west and a cold flow, that is a good start. Ridging continues to show up around greenland as well, even if its not a persistent block, we have time for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 yeah, because the only way it can be cold is with blocking. You should troll less and learn more, you would be a better poster. We had epic blocking end of february and march 2009 and no cold air to show for it. Fact is, we have improvements out west and a cold flow, that is a good start. Ridging continues to show up around greenland as well, even if its not a persistent block, we have time for that. I agree with Trials.. there are improvements.... certainly there is major blocking the last week of November.. unfortunately the placement and strength is not quite there for the late November storm.. the blocking is way too strong and too far south.. that storm has no place to go.. The Atlantic is a complete blockade as well... that bodes well for some in the deep central south looking for a cheap thrill of unusually cool and unsettled weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 This looks better than before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I agree with Trials.. there are improvements.... certainly there is major blocking the last week of November.. unfortunately the placement and strength is not quite there for the late November storm.. the blocking is way too strong and too far south.. that storm has no place to go.. The Atlantic is a complete blockade as well... that bodes well for some in the deep central south looking for a cheap thrill of unusually cool and unsettled weather. we are seeing blocky patterns even in the worst of times, this one is over southern canada, the one in October was Davis Strait. Its good they are showing up at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 This looks better than before. It certainly looks way better, but Canada completely torches and is void of any true arctic air. At least the vortex from hell over AK is gone, patience... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 This looks better than before. Would like the Block in the Atlantic further north towards Greenland, but this looks much better than previous runs. Also, the Alaskan vortex seems to be moving towards Russia on both the GFS and Euro. Small steps in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It certainly looks way better, but Canada completely torches and is void of any true arctic air. At least the vortex from hell over AK is gone, patience... Western and Central Canada isn't torching, those are 500mb heights, it can still be cold under that, Greenland doesnt melt when we have a -NAO. Check out the 2M temps. Its cold up there. Not sub zero, but it ain't raining either. Plenty of arctic air around the globe when the pattern goes right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Would like the Block in the Atlantic further north towards Greenland, but this looks much better than previous runs. Also, the Alaskan vortex seems to be moving towards Russia on both the GFS and Euro. Small steps in the right direction. Agree the blocking is too far south but its good to see the ensembles are catching on to quite a blocky set up, that should bode well for us as we head later into the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 what in the world happens to all that cold arctic air in the long range.. it looks like the -20 isotherm at 850 retreats all the way to the north pole.. lol .. that does not look like a typical temp distribution for early December. I've also noticed that with the long range GFS over the last few days, which just completely removes the true arctic air for Canada south of the arctic regions... is this even a reasonable possibility? I don't know whether to trust the idea of the arctic air falling apart or if it just sticks around while slightly weakening but not collapsing, but I would assume that the arctic air collapsing could really hurt us for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 the Pacific did finally look like it was gonna amplify instead of being primarily zonal too.. that is a good sign.. at least some pretty big storms could form.. and could eventually cut-off as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 yeah, because the only way it can be cold is with blocking. You should troll less and learn more, you would be a better poster. We had epic blocking end of february and march 2009 and no cold air to show for it. Fact is, we have improvements out west and a cold flow, that is a good start. Ridging continues to show up around greenland as well, even if its not a persistent block, we have time for that. Relax. It's the banter thread. I say it will stay warm, you say it will get cold. Troll me on 11/30 when it's 25 degrees.... BTW I did not say it could not get cold without blocking, we need blocking for it to STAY cold. Big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Relax. It's the banter thread. I say it will stay warm, you say it will get cold. Troll me on 11/30 when it's 25 degrees.... BTW I did not say it could not get cold without blocking, we need blocking for it to STAY cold. Big difference. We need blocking to keep storms from cutting, you can have a PNA ridge and/or -EPO supply cold for weeks on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I've also noticed that with the long range GFS over the last few days, which just completely removes the true arctic air for Canada south of the arctic regions... is this even a reasonable possibility? I don't know whether to trust the idea of the arctic air falling apart or if it just sticks around while slightly weakening but not collapsing, but I would assume that the arctic air collapsing could really hurt us for December. I mean.. I'd like to see this consistantly with a lot of models, but I'd say the stronger the anomolies forecasted, the higher the liklihood there will at least be some degree of positive height anamolies in that area... but like Trials is saying.. blocking is good in some respects in that it gives someone a chance, because where there is extreme anomolies somewhere, the reverse happens somewhere else, but that seems more likley in the deep south, as per the long range GFS showing potential freezing conditions almost all the way down to the Gulf Coast.. so if everything works out perfectly, you could have some record lows maybe in the south and, just possibly, a mangled snowflake or two in a place that normally wouldn't climatologically see it around that time of year. The set-up and placement just isnt' good for us yet. It was just kind of mind boggling rolling through the GFS and Euro and just seeing no cold air anywhere in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 DT is close to cancelling December. Lmfao. Is DT a wonderful met? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Is DT a wonderful met? wonderfully annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Is DT a wonderful met? He's really intelligent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 He's really intelligent Thats what I want to hear! Wonderful is nice, but not important(at least not in weather forecasting) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 He's currently alerting us to a growing major severe weather event Sunday into Monday He's really intelligent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I mean.. I'd like to see this consistantly with a lot of models, but I'd say the stronger the anomolies forecasted, the higher the liklihood there will at least be some degree of positive height anamolies in that area... but like Trials is saying.. blocking is good in some respects in that it gives someone a chance, because where there is extreme anomolies somewhere, the reverse happens somewhere else, but that seems more likley in the deep south, as per the long range GFS showing potential freezing conditions almost all the way down to the Gulf Coast.. so if everything works out perfectly, you could have some record lows maybe in the south and, just possibly, a mangled snowflake or two in a place that normally wouldn't climatologically see it around that time of year. The set-up and placement just isnt' good for us yet. It was just kind of mind boggling rolling through the GFS and Euro and just seeing no cold air anywhere in sight True; the blocking is somewhat beneficial for some, but the sight of cold air retreating isn't a very encouraging image at least for the first half of December... by the last week of November of last year, we were already watching the cold air preparing to pour into the eastern US, while at this time we're waiting for the cold air to retreat north with a cutoff low to our west keeping unseasonable warmth in place. I'm staying optimistic for now, hoping that despite a potentially not-so-favorable December, we get more favorable conditions in January/maybe February, but looking at the cold air moving out on the models gives me unfortunate reminders of 01-02, which I doubt will repeat itself and right now I don't expect it to, but the thought of it is stuck in the back of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 True; the blocking is somewhat beneficial for some, but the sight of cold air retreating isn't a very encouraging image at least for the first half of December... by the last week of November of last year, we were already watching the cold air preparing to pour into the eastern US, while at this time we're waiting for the cold air to retreat north with a cutoff low to our west keeping unseasonable warmth in place. I'm staying optimistic for now, hoping that despite a potentially not-so-favorable December, we get more favorable conditions in January/maybe February, but looking at the cold air moving out on the models gives me unfortunate reminders of 01-02, which I doubt will repeat itself and right now I don't expect it to, but the thought of it is stuck in the back of my mind. yep.. gotta just stay hopefull.. things can change quickly and it's still early.... and it doesn't take a whole lot of cold air to make it happen.. If we can get a sizeable snow storm in late October, then anything is possible, even if the pattern is less than ideal... even if the whole winter isn't epic.. if we can get a few epic weeks, you can pick up a season's worth of snowfall pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 yep.. gotta just stay hopefull.. things can change quickly and it's still early.... and it doesn't take a whole lot of cold air to make it happen.. If we can get a sizeable snow storm in late October, then anything is possible, even if the pattern is less than ideal... even if the whole winter isn't epic.. if we can get a few epic weeks, you can pick up a season's worth of snowfall pretty quickly. esp if we consider last winter was really just one months worth...and it wasnt particular cold either. storms were timed well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 with a huge 500 cutoff like that, its possible to get a surface reflection which comes back towards the coast as it is prevented to go east into the blocked up atlantic. If we can get the cold air to bleed east, you could see a snowy scenario. Euro is close to doing this but if weak with the surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Actually it was quite cold. Dec was 3 to 4 degrees below normal, January was 2.2 below and Feb was 1.5 above, mostly due to a major warmup later in the month. It was still a pretty good 75 day period of below normal weather. But that's kind of the point in why even if we do turn to a cold pattern it doesn't guarantee storms or lots of snow. We were oh so close to missing that 12/26 storm last year and would have had nothing to show for one of our coldest Decembers in recent memory. esp if we consider last winter was really just one months worth...and it wasnt particular cold either. storms were timed well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Actually it was quite cold. Dec was 3 to 4 degrees below normal, January was 2.2 below and Feb was 1.5 above, mostly due to a major warmup later in the month. It was still a pretty good 75 day period of below normal weather. But that's kind of the point in why even if we do turn to a cold pattern it doesn't guarantee storms or lots of snow. We were oh so close to missing that 12/26 storm last year and would have had nothing to show for one of our coldest Decembers in recent memory. yes dec was cold but nothing to show for until boxing day. jan was coldish but it was up and down, and the storms themselves werent cold, just marginal. feb and mar were terrible. point is...we dont need vodka cold for 3 months straight to have a good snowy season. it can be up and down, or just a good stretch of a couple weeks with well timed systems to deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Transient trough, really not a good H5 signature. You have a massive ridge where you want the 50/50 to be which not only keeps storms on the coast but via confluence, helps reinforce a cold high over canada. -PNA still weakly in place with a +EPO as well. Not that great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 That block you guys are posting is extremely transient and not worth looking at, really...when you loop the gefs height anomalies you can see that it's gone pretty quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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