CooL Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 winter and giants cancel look at the gfs from hrs 0-384. It does not look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's funny how we took a giant leap towards winter in late October and two enormous leaps backwards in November, I'm shocked Thanksgivings only 3 days away, supposed to hit the 60s and rain on Wednesday and 51 on Thanksgiving day. The week after looks even warmer, probably more 60+ temps right before December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Yes this definitely looks like a very warm map..perhaps if you are on the west coast... That map also does not look very warm... These 850 mb anomaly temps also look very warm... (perhaps off the west coast) Its only November..If you want to have a warm pattern NOW is the time that you want to have that warm pattern. We had a warm november last year before winter...I am sure I am not the only one that remembers how that winter turned out.. Having that snow in OCT was the WORST thing that could have happened weather wise because people NOW expect after that event for it to stay cold..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 ^ that's from a transient PNA ridge. As long as that vortex is in AK and the NAO isn't great, we are not going to have any sustained cold/snowy periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nikolai Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The EURO tonight is fantastic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 ^ that's from a transient PNA ridge. As long as that vortex is in AK and the NAO isn't great, we are not going to have any sustained cold/snowy periods. November 2010 above.... The point is that it is only NOVEMBER! Let it be warm.. If it was december 15th then you might have to start worrying about winter etc.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The things that I would do to see this again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I came in here this morning thinking to read some intelligent post from earthlight and all I got was that weenie image from a year ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Why are people worrying? It's only November and this pattern is not going to last long. Patience my friends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Why are people worrying? That's what people are best at, worrying, complaining, moaning, and also worrying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 The things that I would do to see this again.. Some banter, I was looking at some of the ensemble images, I’ve saved from the last year, yesterday. From the about Nov. 12th, they started showing this massvive -NAO block working from east to west in the North Atlantic, and they were consistent with it to. There wasn’t such large or strong vortex over Alaska either. Although, the -NAO didn’t take over, until early December, the fact models have been showing the pretty much the opposite happening this November, leads to me think, that it’s going be much slower for the pattern to change completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Some banter, I was looking at some of the ensemble images, I’ve saved from the last year, yesterday. From the about Nov. 12th, they started showing this massvive -NAO block working from east to west in the North Atlantic, and they were consistent with it to. There wasn’t such large or strong vortex over Alaska either. Although, the -NAO didn’t take over, until early December, the fact models have been showing the pretty much the opposite happening this November, leads to me think, that it’s going be much slower for the pattern to change completely. And last year still took until right after Christmas to get snow. I think the series of early December storms have really skewed our expectations. What's the December average for the city? 4 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Why are people worrying? It's only November and this pattern is not going to last long. Patience my friends. Ehh not so sure bout that. In a period of extremes we've been in lately, wouldn't be surprised. Patterns have locked in. Just as easily as we had the forcing to sustain a -NAO for the winter of 09-10, we could easily have an extreme +AO/+EPO/ +NAO... Main point, just because the pattern relaxes, doesn't mean it won't go back to how it was before hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 We all talk about waiting for the pattern to change and needing patience. But, has anyone considered the possibility that it simply won't change? Or not to any large degree? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 It's funny how we took a giant leap towards winter in late October and two enormous leaps backwards in November, I'm shocked Thanksgivings only 3 days away, supposed to hit the 60s and rain on Wednesday and 51 on Thanksgiving day. The week after looks even warmer, probably more 60+ temps right before December. Where are you getting data that shows this non-stop warmth? Is everyone ignoring the sustained cold after the Midwest cutoff low? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Analog, it isnt only this forum that people are worried about this winter. I do not get why people are getting worried. People always seems to cancel winter every November. I bet a lot of people were getting really worried when the area didnt see snow at all until the last week of December. The long range is looking much better and a lot of people should be happy by January 1. Even the conserative Glenn Scwartz is calling for 30-40 inches for Philly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 we have been spoiled the last few years...We can't expect 50" of snow every year...last year winter basicly ended in early February...February and March saw little action...This year might be the opposite with December and January seeing little action and February and March having the most snow chances...I'm hoping for a pattern change down the line...I will not throw in the towel yet but I'm holding it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 I came in here this morning thinking to read some intelligent post from earthlight and all I got was that weenie image from a year ago. Not good when he is posting maps from last year. Atleast him and the heat posters are getting their torch.....what they wanted....enjoy the torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 we have been spoiled the last few years...We can't expect 50" of snow every year...last year winter basicly ended in early February...February and March saw little action...This year might be the opposite with December and January seeing little action and February and March having the most snow chances...I'm hoping for a pattern change down the line...I will not throw in the towel yet but I'm holding it... Not what I wanted to read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 You know,most of the December's of my youth were snowless..especailly the first thru the 15th..It was usually mild and rainy in the decades of the 70's and 80's..to get even a light snowfall was like pulling teeth..all changed in 2000..spoiled?..without a doubt..I think 2002,2003,and 2009 were rare to have a major snowfall before Christmas..really most winters don't start cracking until Christmas week..because..hey winter begins around then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wes just said that he expects most of December to be mild and snowless for the mid atlantic. Winter cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Not good when he is posting maps from last year. Atleast him and the heat posters are getting their torch.....what they wanted....enjoy the torch Let's archive the negative posts, then showcase them following our first Big event(assuming we will have one). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 A lot of people on here have turned into noreaster27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 21, 2011 Author Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wes just said that he expects most of December to be mild and snowless for the mid atlantic. Winter cancel? some of us dont live in the mid atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Henry M just posted on his blog saying that he expects it to be warm right trough January. Better get the shovels ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Wes just said that he expects most of December to be mild and snowless for the mid atlantic. Winter cancel? That's not ideal, I listen to Wes very closely over the years; and he is a wonderful met.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 some of us dont live in the mid atlantic We do not live in Northern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 GFS gets cold and blocky. Looks great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Strongbad Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 Having that snow in OCT was the WORST thing that could have happened weather wise because people NOW expect after that event for it to stay cold..... By far, the best post on this thread. Perception is reality, and that storm certainly created some unwarranted greed for snow lovers along the East coast. Let's let the winter play out before bittercasting about how it will suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2011 Share Posted November 21, 2011 GFS looks great in the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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