Isotherm Posted November 11, 2011 Share Posted November 11, 2011 Wasn't everyone acting like 95-96 was coming just a couple weeks ago? People live and die by model info. I try not to get caught up in it but it's hard. My thinking is screw the models at this stage; we've got a ton of analog support for a cold December, and I'll be confident in that until models show otherwise the last week of November. Given it's November 11th, I'm not worried at all for Dec. Geomag activity continues very low, and should get the -NAO developing by D15-20. Analogs for November have the cold air pooling in SW Canada then making it into the Northeats by the final 1/3 of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 My thinking is screw the models at this stage; we've got a ton of analog support for a cold December, and I'll be confident in that until models show otherwise the last week of November. Given it's November 11th, I'm not worried at all for Dec. Geomag activity continues very low, and should get the -NAO developing by D15-20. Analogs for November have the cold air pooling in SW Canada then making it into the Northeats by the final 1/3 of the month. usually during a la nina year we see periods of warmth and cold...We are seeing some warmth now (not historic) so it probably will change down the line...It usually does...the Stats favor more blocking this winter which will in turn bring snow and or cold...There haven't been many Decembers with major storms and we just had two in a row...Was there ever three? 1945, 1947 and 1948 saw a major snowstorm in December...1957, 1959, 1960, 1961 had major or significant snowfalls...1963 and 1966 too...There has never been three years in a row with 10" of snow in December...let alone a 10" storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 watch the ensembles at the end of the month, you can see the -pna start to relax and work its way back towards neutral and the positive height anomolies in the davis strait, I for one am pumped about December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Trials, I remember that storm. At one point, all the models had a mega bomb hitting the midwest. They eventually trended way off the coast lol. this is the same year where everyone called for a January torch that never came. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 watch the ensembles at the end of the month, you can see the -pna start to relax and work its way back towards neutral and the positive height anomolies in the davis strait, I for one am pumped about December. The western retrograde of the mean negative height anomalies on the west coast on the latest GEFS runs would at least offer some hope for some cooler air into our area by late month. That being said it's at the very (very) end of the run. http://www.meteo.psu...NH_18z/f384.gif Biting off of me as usual. Its funny that you poo poo the end of the gfs ensembles but you have already written off December because of the euro monthlies and a couple people throwing around the ghost of December 01...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 My thinking is screw the models at this stage; we've got a ton of analog support for a cold December, and I'll be confident in that until models show otherwise the last week of November. Given it's November 11th, I'm not worried at all for Dec. Geomag activity continues very low, and should get the -NAO developing by D15-20. Analogs for November have the cold air pooling in SW Canada then making it into the Northeats by the final 1/3 of the month. The CPC analogs have a mean warm signal for the northeast in December. Doesn't mean they are right, but a lot of stuff the past few days has certainly been pointing to more warmth or at least delying the cold. The key is the cross polar flow N of AK...we are completely cooked without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 The CPC analogs have a mean warm signal for the northeast in December. Doesn't mean they are right, but a lot of stuff the past few days has certainly been pointing to more warmth or at least delying the cold. The key is the cross polar flow N of AK...we are completely cooked without it. Don't bother, lol, when I posted the Euro weeklies and ensembles I got called out for looking at long range stuff too early :lol. Regardless I agree that the pattern looks pretty crappy on the long range guidance right now. It was interesting to see the GFS and Euro differences yesterday with the MJO..Euro was killing it off after a brief period in 1 while the GFS brings it into a moderate 1. GEFS also have positive height anomalies in the east and a -PNA until 300 hrs. Then they begin to show some signs of retrograde out west allowing the blocking to at least have a say in this pattern---around 384 they have a trough over the Eastern 1/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Don't bother, lol, when I posted the Euro weeklies and ensembles I got called out for looking at long range stuff too early :lol. Regardless I agree that the pattern looks pretty crappy on the long range guidance right now. It was interesting to see the GFS and Euro differences yesterday with the MJO..Euro was killing it off after a brief period in 1 while the GFS brings it into a moderate 1. GEFS also have positive height anomalies in the east and a -PNA until 300 hrs. Then they begin to show some signs of retrograde out west allowing the blocking to at least have a say in this pattern---around 384 they have a trough over the Eastern 1/3. The difference in MJO is probably why at the end of the GEFS run it tries to retrograde the trough out west and pop a ridge out ahead of it while the Euro ensembles are less enthusiastic though they mildly hint at it at the very end. The volatility of the solutions does make me pause in terms of confidence. The only thing I'm confident of is that the cooldown around Nov 17-18 is transient and we see mild weather build back in behind it....how long the mild weather lasts is where the waters get muddy to me. The Euro ensembles did try and press the RNA gradient pattern a bit south past Nov 22 or so...so that its not a torch in the northeast but its not exactly cold either. More seasonal. Nobody wants to hear that a cold pattern might not happen or might be delayed, but there is no sense in wishcasting it either. December could still be a cold month but I think its important to note that it is no way a lock to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherX Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 -PNA/+NAO/+AO trifecta in November? Perfect....right where we want it...... humongous winter incoming...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 -PNA/+NAO/+AO trifecta in November? Perfect....right where we want it...... humongous winter incoming...... Yes for the Washington Cascades Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Are we not pretty much all use to seeing the models go back and forth from a warm signal to a cold signal when there is a pattern change coming? It is only November -having that early snowfall in October has really messed up peoples thoughts ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Are we not pretty much all use to seeing the models go back and forth from a warm signal to a cold signal when there is a pattern change coming? It is only November -having that early snowfall in October has really messed up peoples thoughts ... But there is no warm singal to cold signal flip flopping. They are quite content on keeping things warm. With the MJO in unfavorable phases and weak as well, it's gonna be tough to flip the pattern we're currently in. Ugly pacific dominating, Atlantic just as ugly and no help. While you see the NAO (-) on the op models, that's far east based and pretty much a +NAO for all intensive purposes. ( dam you scandanavian ridge!) Personally, not a winter cancel. But I do think we'll see thus current pattern persist into mid December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 -PNA/+NAO/+AO trifecta in November? Perfect....right where we want it...... humongous winter incoming...... What were you doing up so late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 What were you doing up so late? Your mobile avatar is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I hate La Nina winters. Stupid -pna . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 I hate La Nina winters. Stupid -pna . If it's meant to be a bad winter, then oh well. We've been too spoiled for several years now with these huge coastal snowstorms/blizzards. Back in the 1980s and 1990s, we would all be happy to get a 6" storm. Now even a 6" storm is not good enough for many, they want a foot or more every time. I won't be bitter if our winter ends up mild with little snow, it's just mother nature's way. It's still too early to determine anything for the whole winter though so I won't make complete assumptions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Trials storm is on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Trials storm is on the gfs. yes it is, yes it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 yes it is, yes it is. Link?!!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 Link?!!? are you really asking for a link to the gfs? its on the nws site. Also, ensembles also showing a lot of activity at that time with several of the members showing a very amplified pattern at the end of their run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 That storm on the gfs is called perfect timing in a very unfavorable pattern ala Feb 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 That storm on the gfs is called perfect timing in a very unfavorable pattern ala Feb 2006. hey, take what you can get GFS also close to popping a little miller b around 120 hours. Even in the horrible pattern, we are still seeing cold shots, which is good. Look at the 1030 high around turkey day, that's a nice cold HP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 euro has a similar setup as the gfs around turkey day week. Looking forward to seeing this one come closer into range. Western/Central Canada is going to have a ton of snow cover, so this HP coming down should be nice and cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 euro has a similar setup as the gfs around turkey day week. Looking forward to seeing this one come closer into range. Western/Central Canada is going to have a ton of snow cover, so this HP coming down should be nice and cold And people were getting worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 But there is no warm singal to cold signal flip flopping. They are quite content on keeping things warm. With the MJO in unfavorable phases and weak as well, it's gonna be tough to flip the pattern we're currently in. Ugly pacific dominating, Atlantic just as ugly and no help. While you see the NAO (-) on the op models, that's far east based and pretty much a +NAO for all intensive purposes. ( dam you scandanavian ridge!) Personally, not a winter cancel. But I do think we'll see thus current pattern persist into mid December. Pretty much the same things were spelled out last winter .. Last november is pretty much similar with the current november in pattern etc... T day came and we started a pattern change & the first week of December a huge trough and sustained cold ended up on the east coast & the rest is weather history. You need the cold air and snowcover to be allowed to build up in Canada first... Because even with a - NAO & - AO if you do not have the cold air in Canada first it will not make a difference downstream in the continental US.. Let the pattern build and unfold it is only november 12th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 You need the cold air and snowcover to be allowed to build up in Canada first...Because even with a - NAO & - AO if you do not have the cold air in Canada first it will not make a difference downstream in the continental US.. Basically the 2001-2 story? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 You need the cold air and snowcover to be allowed to build up in Canada first... Looks like a huge amount of acreage in the province of Ontario became snow covered in the last 24 to 48 hours....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 12, 2011 Share Posted November 12, 2011 gfs ensemble height means continue to show improvement at the end of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 Gonna have to get thru this to get a potential swap in the pattern in december..This doesnt bother me in the slightest, i think 2009 and 2010 both featured warm novembers. Even though both have strong agreement on the SE ridge, Lol at the disagreement on the ridging near Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 13, 2011 Share Posted November 13, 2011 the last two Novembers didn't get below freezing in NYC...This could be the third straight year that happens...better warm now than a month from now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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