NYC Banter and BS Thread Part III

[Guest Pamela]

We at least had a good 6"+ event in '08 that was mostly all snow after the sleetfests of 07

Aught eight over aught seven by a nose....

[Isotherm]

The 1980 - 2000 stretch is hardly the first bad one...the 1920's, 1930's, 1950's, and 1970's were all bad snow decades at KNYC....

Agreed on the 50s and 70s; NYC's decadal average was 22.7 and 21.3 inches respectively. The 20s and 30s while not above average, were not too bad either, around 26" each decade.

During the LIA KNYC was probably a borderline snow town....since it ended it has not been...if we are heading back into one...as some posit....then it may recapture that past glory....

William, interesting point, and you got me doing a little more digging on the LIA. If we look at NYC's decadal averages in the 1870-1900 period -- 33" was the average for the 3 decades (32", 33" and 35"). Global temp anomaly was -0.2c. Meanwhile, NYC's average for the 1980-2010 period was about 25", at a time when global temp anomaly was around 0.2c, which is 0.4c warmer than the late 1800s. The snowfall average difference is 8" (33-25). Going backwards in time, much of the LIA from 1500-1800 featured global temps between -0.5c and -0.6c, essentialy 0.4c cooler than the late 1800s and 0.8c cooler than the later 1900s. Adding on another 8" of snowfall to the late 1800s numbers for a 0.4c temp decrease, we find ourselves at about 41"/year average in NYC for the LIA period 1500-1750.

NYC's decadal average for the 2000s was 31.5", similar to the 1960s and almost approaching the late 1800s average. I've said in posts before that I believe the 2010s will feature an even higher decadal snowfall average in NYC. All natural factors suggest cooling in the next couple decades: negative PDO, declining AMO, weakest solar cycle in hundreds of years, negative NAO decadal phase, increased volcanic activity, etc.

So basically I'd guess the LIA period in NYC would have been similar to living in the BOS metro area. And for the BOS, they would've probably been in the upper 50s or low 60s in terms of snowfall averages.I'd say around a 16" increase from the late 1900s climate. DCA more like the NYC metro and Raleigh/Richmond more like Philly.

[Isotherm]

Agreed on the 50s and 70s; NYC's decadal average was 22.7 and 21.3 inches respectively. The 20s and 30s while not above average, were not too bad either, around 26" each decade.

William, interesting point, and you got me doing a little more digging on the LIA. If we look at NYC's decadal averages in the 1870-1900 period -- 33" was the average for the 3 decades (32", 33" and 35"). Global temp anomaly was -0.2c. Meanwhile, NYC's average for the 1980-2010 period was about 25", at a time when global temp anomaly was around 0.2c, which is 0.4c warmer than the late 1800s. The snowfall average difference is 8" (33-25). Going backwards in time, much of the LIA from 1500-1800 featured global temps between -0.5c and -0.6c, essentialy 0.4c cooler than the late 1800s and 0.8c cooler than the later 1900s. Adding on another 8" of snowfall to the late 1800s numbers for a 0.4c temp decrease, we find ourselves at about 41"/year average in NYC for the LIA period 1500-1750.

NYC's decadal average for the 2000s was 31.5", similar to the 1960s and almost approaching the late 1800s average. I've said in posts before that I believe the 2010s will feature an even higher decadal snowfall average in NYC. All natural factors suggest cooling in the next couple decades: negative PDO, declining AMO, weakest solar cycle in hundreds of years, negative NAO decadal phase, increased volcanic activity, etc.

So basically I'd guess the LIA period in NYC would have been similar to living in the BOS metro area. And for the BOS, they would've probably been in the upper 50s or low 60s in terms of snowfall averages.I'd say around a 16" increase from the late 1900s climate. DCA more like the NYC metro and Raleigh/Richmond more like Philly.

[Stormlover74]

And its funny because before the March '09 storm I recall people saying that NYC was going to be more like Philly and Philly like DC and DC like Richmond.

Agreed on the 50s and 70s; NYC's decadal average was 22.7 and 21.3 inches respectively. The 20s and 30s while not above average, were not too bad either, around 26" each decade.

William, interesting point, and you got me doing a little more digging on the LIA. If we look at NYC's decadal averages in the 1870-1900 period -- 33" was the average for the 3 decades (32", 33" and 35"). Global temp anomaly was -0.2c. Meanwhile, NYC's average for the 1980-2010 period was about 25", at a time when global temp anomaly was around 0.2c, which is 0.4c warmer than the late 1800s. The snowfall average difference is 8" (33-25). Going backwards in time, much of the LIA from 1500-1800 featured global temps between -0.5c and -0.6c, essentialy 0.4c cooler than the late 1800s and 0.8c cooler than the later 1900s. Adding on another 8" of snowfall to the late 1800s numbers for a 0.4c temp decrease, we find ourselves at about 41"/year average in NYC for the LIA period 1500-1750.

NYC's decadal average for the 2000s was 31.5", similar to the 1960s and almost approaching the late 1800s average. I've said in posts before that I believe the 2010s will feature an even higher decadal snowfall average in NYC. All natural factors suggest cooling in the next couple decades: negative PDO, declining AMO, weakest solar cycle in hundreds of years, negative NAO decadal phase, increased volcanic activity, etc.

So basically I'd guess the LIA period in NYC would have been similar to living in the BOS metro area. And for the BOS, they would've probably been in the upper 50s or low 60s in terms of snowfall averages.I'd say around a 16" increase from the late 1900s climate. DCA more like the NYC metro and Raleigh/Richmond more like Philly.

[Isotherm]

Also re the term "snow town", it's all subjective, but I consider Boston to be the only major city that's a snow town on the east coast. My threshold is 40" for qualification of a normally snowy winter. Anything under 40" gets too variable to be considered a snow town IMO. 50"+ areas clearly have good winters most of the time. So as William noted, I think NYC could have been a snow town in that 300 year LIA period assuming my rough estimation on snowfall averages is accurate.

[Guest Pamela]

Agreed on the 50s and 70s; NYC's decadal average was 22.7 and 21.3 inches respectively. The 20s and 30s while not above average, were not too bad either, around 26" each decade.

William, interesting point, and you got me doing a little more digging on the LIA. If we look at NYC's decadal averages in the 1870-1900 period -- 33" was the average for the 3 decades (32", 33" and 35"). Global temp anomaly was -0.2c. Meanwhile, NYC's average for the 1980-2010 period was about 25", at a time when global temp anomaly was around 0.2c, which is 0.4c warmer than the late 1800s. The snowfall average difference is 8" (33-25). Going backwards in time, much of the LIA from 1500-1800 featured global temps between -0.5c and -0.6c, essentialy 0.4c cooler than the late 1800s and 0.8c cooler than the later 1900s. Adding on another 8" of snowfall to the late 1800s numbers for a 0.4c temp decrease, we find ourselves at about 41"/year average in NYC for the LIA period 1500-1750.

NYC's decadal average for the 2000s was 31.5", similar to the 1960s and almost approaching the late 1800s average. I've said in posts before that I believe the 2010s will feature an even higher decadal snowfall average in NYC. All natural factors suggest cooling in the next couple decades: negative PDO, declining AMO, weakest solar cycle in hundreds of years, negative NAO decadal phase, increased volcanic activity, etc.

So basically I'd guess the LIA period in NYC would have been similar to living in the BOS metro area. And for the BOS, they would've probably been in the upper 50s or low 60s in terms of snowfall averages.I'd say around a 16" increase from the late 1900s climate. DCA more like the NYC metro and Raleigh/Richmond more like Philly.

Per the records of William Whitehead, the average snowfall at Newark from 1843 - 1870 was 43.8"...a fraction better than 20th century Boston...I believe there would be a correlation betwwen lower global temps and increased snowfall in this part of the world...

[Guest Pamela]

Also re the term "snow town", it's all subjective, but I consider Boston to be the only major city that's a snow town on the east coast. My threshold is 40" for qualification of a normally snowy winter. Anything under 40" gets too variable to be considered a snow town IMO. 50"+ areas clearly have good winters most of the time. So as William noted, I think NYC could have been a snow town in that 300 year LIA period assuming my rough estimation on snowfall averages is accurate.

I generally would call it a snow town if at least 50% of its winter precip is snow....40% for wetter towns like NYC or Boston... modern Boston (Logan) falls just short...though not the interior suburbs....

[Isotherm]

Per the records of William Whitehead, the average snowfall at Newark from 1843 - 1870 was 43.8"...a fraction better than 20th century Boston...I believe there would be a correlation betwwen lower global temps and increased snowfall in this part of the world...

Interesting. Given EWR is usually a bit snowier than NYC, the latter's average was probably about 42" in that period. No doubt lower global temps = more snowfall. We see proof of this winter to winter -- temperatures have a much higher correlation to snowfall than precip for the BOS-NYC-PHL-DCA-RIC corridor. Once north into Northern New England, I'm not sure the LIA was any snowier than today. It may have been colder/drier in fact.

[Sundog]

It is a banter and bs thread; if my posts offend your sensibilities...the ignore feature is always available....

You're supposed to use a comma where you put the first set of three periods.

[Guest Pamela]

Once north into Northern New England, I'm not sure the LIA was any snowier than today. It may have been colder/drier in fact.

This is demonstrated by the high degree of variability in snowfall at Portland, Maine...sometimes in the 40's...sometimes over 100 (inches)...while Caribou....wayyyy to the north...sees little variability in year to year snowfall...it is always cold enough up there...

[weathermedic]

Has anyone else noticed the new orange "V" plows that are being stored at different NYC Sanitation garages? I've passed quite a few sanitation garages/yards over the past few weeks all over the city and have noticed several of the new large V plows (not attached to trucks, but sitting on the ground or on racks)

In the past, NYC Sanitation has had a few of these plows scattered around the city garages, but after the Boxing Day blizzard, I guess they decided to purchase quite a few. Driving by the outdoor yard along the Nassau Expressway by JFK airport, I counted about a dozen all brand new looking. I've also noticed what looks like several new large sanitation dump trucks parked at different garages that these plows mostly get attached to.

Hopefully the purchase won't jinx the upcoming winter!

[Guest Pamela]

You're supposed to use a comma where you put the first set of three periods.

Did every one enjoy meeting me in March???

[Isotherm]

07-08 was by far the worse for me......I would take a 06-07 before that horrible year.

Agreed, 07-08 blew chunks, partially b/c totals were so low, and partially b/c we were teased by northern areas getting pounded every other week. NW NJ did ok that winter. Generally even in a +NAO Nina winter, interior New England and the mountains of PA/NJ/NY do alright, sometimes quite good. The NAO is the big wildcard.

06-07 sucked snowfall wise but it at least kept my interest. Nice ice storm on Valentines day and a 5" sleet storm in March.

2007-08 is probably the worst winter I've experienced. I'm pretty lucky though considering there have only been a couple horrendous winters since I started following the weather in 2000.

[nycsnow]

Has anyone else noticed the new orange "V" plows that are being stored at different NYC Sanitation garages? I've passed quite a few sanitation garages/yards over the past few weeks all over the city and have noticed several of the new large V plows (not attached to trucks, but sitting on the ground or on racks)

In the past, NYC Sanitation has had a few of these plows scattered around the city garages, but after the Boxing Day blizzard, I guess they decided to purchase quite a few. Driving by the outdoor yard along the Nassau Expressway by JFK airport, I counted about a dozen all brand new looking. I've also noticed what looks like several new large sanitation dump trucks parked at different garages that these plows mostly get attached to.

Hopefully the purchase won't jinx the upcoming winter!

Saw them by me the other day to!

[Sundog]

Did every one enjoy meeting me in March???

I cant speak for the group; I have no such authority. Maybe a poll is in order?

[Guest Pamela]

I cant speak for the group; I have no such authority. Maybe a poll is in order?

My friends refer to me as The Good Narcissist....you don't want to hear what my enemies call me...

[NYCSuburbs]

Weenies having a breakdown in November

Wasn't last November like this as well? As far as I can remember, other than the first week of November and the Thanksgiving wintry mix, the troughs mostly focused over the central/western US with only brief cool spells over the NE. This link also shows that cold air started to build in western Canada around mid November, weakening a little before it all came pouring down on Dec 2. We're not going to have the extreme blocking we had last December, so I doubt we'll see a quick and strong change to cold/snow, but I'm not concerned much about a mild/snowless December unless it's the first week of December and there's still no sign of a pattern change.

[Alpha5]

Wasn't last November like this as well? As far as I can remember, other than the first week of November and the Thanksgiving wintry mix, the troughs mostly focused over the central/western US with only brief cool spells over the NE. This link also shows that cold air started to build in western Canada around mid November, weakening a little before it all came pouring down on Dec 2. We're not going to have the extreme blocking we had last December, so I doubt we'll see a quick and strong change to cold/snow, but I'm not concerned much about a mild/snowless December unless it's the first week of December and there's still no sign of a pattern change.

Good to see you posting here. Since we've had so many members banned recently, we need some fresh blood in hear. You're a good guy too.....so keep posting

[Allsnow]

Hm is in the sne thread talking about how he is afraid december might be mild in the east.......toaster and tub guys....

[Sundog]

Hm is in the sne thread talking about how he is afraid december might be mild in the east.......toaster and tub guys....

Did anybody predict 60 - 70 inches last year? Actually I believe a lot of the predictions were quite dire.

[Allsnow]

Did anybody predict 60 - 70 inches last year? Actually I believe a lot of the predictions were quite dire.

It's over mr dog.......enjoy ur 4 more inches of snow........01-02

[MJO812]

I am packing my bags and moving to the midwest. Bye.

[TheTrials]

Hm is in the sne thread talking about how he is afraid december might be mild in the east.......toaster and tub guys....

yup, and in January 2009 every met and their mother was telling us how the biggest storm every to strike the midwest was coming, some were even hinting that the national guard was going to be needed for flooding and snow removal, and the storm ended up 200 miles off the coast.

[KEITH L.I]

Hm is in the sne thread talking about how he is afraid december might be mild in the east.......toaster and tub guys....

Every November on this board since the days at Wright Weather..it's insane it never fails..people think winter begins November 10th..lol..winter begins Dec 21st..why make any assumption about December when we are not even half way thru November....It just baffles my mind

[MJO812]

Trials, I remember that storm. At one point, all the models had a mega bomb hitting the midwest. They eventually trended way off the coast lol.

[SnoSki14]

Every November on this board since the days at Wright Weather..it's insane it never fails..people think winter begins November 10th..lol..winter begins Dec 21st..why make any assumption about December when we are not even half way thru November....It just baffles my mind

I know it's early to make assumptions but usually by now we could pinpoint what the pattern may look like in a few weeks, whether cold or mild and right now the signals are not good at all. Warm Novembers usually have some signal of a change to cold but not this one and I know the long range gfs is extremely inaccurate but it's producing run after run of an atrocious mild pattern that looks like April/May.

From hours 168 onward, you have a huge SE ridge in full control in the east producing probably record breaking warmth for mid/late November. No blocking whatsoever, cold air bottled up well to the north, just horrible.

Basically in this pattern, we probably get days of very warm temperatures/record high temperatures with one or two days or near normal or slightly below normal temps and back to very warm. If this continues, you get horrible winters. And once a winter pattern locks in, it usually sticks, at least for nearly half the winter.

Last winter December/January were cold and snowy but then it was rather warm and snowless for Feb/March.

[CooL]

if Will said the weeklies look like 95-96 and HM said this december is looking cold and stormy we would all be praising them lol

[Sundog]

if Will said the weeklies look like 95-96 and HM said this december is looking cold and stormy we would all be praising them lol

Wasn't everyone acting like 95-96 was coming just a couple weeks ago? People live and die by model info. I try not to get caught up in it but it's hard.

[nycsnow]

I know it's early to make assumptions but usually by now we could pinpoint what the pattern may look like in a few weeks, whether cold or mild and right now the signals are not good at all. Warm Novembers usually have some signal of a change to cold but not this one and I know the long range gfs is extremely inaccurate but it's producing run after run of an atrocious mild pattern that looks like April/May.

From hours 168 onward, you have a huge SE ridge in full control in the east producing probably record breaking warmth for mid/late November. No blocking whatsoever, cold air bottled up well to the north, just horrible.

Basically in this pattern, we probably get days of very warm temperatures/record high temperatures with one or two days or near normal or slightly below normal temps and back to very warm. If this continues, you get horrible winters. And once a winter pattern locks in, it usually sticks, at least for nearly half the winter.

Last winter December/January were cold and snowy but then it was rather warm and snowless for Feb/March.

Winters dec 21 so not worried yet

[nycsnow]

Wasn't everyone acting like 95-96 was coming just a couple weeks ago? People live and die by model info. I try not to get caught up in it but it's hard.

Yeah lol fwi take with grain of salt but Steve d says a very slow transition to winter pattern starts end of next week.