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NYC Banter and BS Thread Part III


Alpha5

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They really don't..November 01 was a blowtorch for all the country..Nov 11 is nothing like that..I would worry about 01

Week 3 and 4 do in fact look very similar. Week 3 is Nov 28-Dec 5...week 4 is Dec 5-12. Notice how I said they look like December 2001...not November, though even week 2 looks like late Nov '01.

I would take them with a grain of salt at this point since both them and the ensembles have been inconsistent this past week or so. But there is by no means anything that screams that we have to go into a cold pattern by early December.

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That slow moving line of rain in western NJ is finally making its way here... NYC and its surrounding towns are the only parts of the NYC area that haven't seen rain yet today. This break from the stormy pattern is almost a complete flip from what we had last month - at this rate, unless we see a widesread rain event early-mid next week which isn't certain, we should easily end up with a 15-20+ day stretch of dry conditions with just a few showers.

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I recall it (1974-75) as a rather frustrating winter, but the one storm in February was quite decent. The 2/12 storm was the heaviest since February 1969 (shows how bad the early 70s were for snow).

Obviously I wasn't keeping records then but I would have thought the 2/8/1974 event put down more snow in the Syosset / Plainview area....

One of the ways that La Niña got its bad name wer the 1970-2 and 1973-6 stretches. They were frustrating winters. 1973-4 had its promising moments as did 1974-5 (and really most of the winters) but basically nothing truly major materialized. Unlike the past decade, it just didn't want to snow.
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I haven't posted here in a very long time... I started posting a little last November but didn't feel this was the right place for me, but I've been following the American Weather forums again for a while and I'm thinking about starting to post here again. I hope I'll be able to start posting here more often this winter and contribute to the discussions going on in the subforum.

I'd love to see your insights. But this board didn't exist until last November if I recall correctly.
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Who's worried?

Agree regarding the Euro's accuracy. Unsettling, still, that the euro ens are more in agreement with the GEFS height anomalies rolled forward.

I can almost see your bottom lip quiver.

I ignored everything you wrote after the bolded word, btw.

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I haven't followed the recent discussions here before posting yesterday, but it doesn't look to me like there's much of a pattern change coming before December. There's improvements in western Canada with cold air building there along with a moderating PNA, but this is a gradual change in the pattern, not a quick and strong one. IMO, it probably won't be until early December at the earliest that we start to get better cold/some snow chances, possibly improving towards the middle of the month.

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I haven't followed the recent discussions here before posting yesterday, but it doesn't look to me like there's much of a pattern change coming before December. There's improvements in western Canada with cold air building there along with a moderating PNA, but this is a gradual change in the pattern, not a quick and strong one. IMO, it probably won't be until early December at the earliest that we start to get better cold/some snow chances, possibly improving towards the middle of the month.

ok earthlight.

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