Neblizzard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Beautiful on the Atlantic side, not so much on the north pacific, as to be expected. Looks like a classic -NAO/-PNA gradient pattern; probably mild in the SE and cold in the NE verbatim. But given that's an ensemble mean, I think we'll see the Eastern trough depicted much deeper as the time frame approaches. I agree, the pacific definitely needs some work and the polar vortex is on the wrong side of the globe. Once we get an -EPO pattern ( prob near thanksgiving) things should fall into place for a cold and potentiall stormy pattern. The -NAO is saving us from an all out blowtorch, we have to watch the trends in the pacific over the next several weeks.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 dont rule out a passing PNA spike as well. I don't fear the pacific like some do, give me a good west based -NAO and I'll take my chances. I generally agree; as long as the EPO/PNA aren't raging positive/negative we should be fine with a good -NAO/-AO regime. Obviously a -EPO/+PNA is preferred but as mentioned many times, that's going to be hard to come by for the most part in a mdt nina/-PDO winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 I generally agree; as long as the EPO/PNA aren't raging positive/negative we should be fine with a good -NAO/-AO regime. Obviously a -EPO/+PNA is preferred but as mentioned many times, that's going to be hard to come by for the most part in a mdt nina/-PDO winter. I'll take a -EPO/-NAO pattern with transient PNA ridging anytime, especially given the state of the -PDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Beautiful on the Atlantic side, not so much on the north pacific, as to be expected. Looks like a classic -NAO/-PNA gradient pattern; probably mild in the SE and cold in the NE verbatim. But given that's an ensemble mean, I think we'll see the Eastern trough depicted much deeper as the time frame approaches. Hard with that +EPO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Hard with that +EPO Hey Alpha, could you post a pic or two of the snowstorm a week ago (im sure you took a few at least)?? I work up by Rock Rimmon and Pound Ridge and I could not find anything close to a foot of snow in North Stamford. I want to put the pics in my archives and solidify the total from that area. Thanks!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 Hey Alpha, could you post a pic or two of the snowstorm a week ago (im sure you took a few at least)?? I work up by Rock Rimmon and Pound Ridge and I could not find anything close to a foot of snow in North Stamford. I want to put the pics in my archives and solidify the total from that area. Thanks!! Dont have anything outside of a computer pic I took to show the snow on the ground with green on the trees. I dont have a camera and as i already explained to you, the morning after, there was only around 5-6 left on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Dont have anything outside of a computer pic I took to show the snow on the ground with green on the trees. I dont have a camera and as i already explained to you, the morning after, there was only around 5-6 left on the ground I plow, I know what was on the ground at 2 am. Well, thats too bad, thanks though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 7, 2011 Author Share Posted November 7, 2011 I plow, I know what was on the ground at 2 am. Well, thats too bad, thanks though. and how much snow did you find on the ground at 2am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Gonna be honest here, this pattern is terrible. Luckily it's November. I like the end of the month storm, not as a threat but as a pattern changer. Hopefully that will rip the heights up into Greenland and the mean trough over the West should roll east by Dec 5 or so. Meaningful snow threats will be here by Dec 10-15 if my general pattern idea is correct. But the big one could come the last week of Dec under favorable blocking anomalies and a possible PNA spike. I like a hybrid/redeveloper in this pattern that ejects from the SW US and then towards the MA. All heresay at this point--but I never forecast specific long range events. In this case I am slightly more confident than usual...enough to introduce my thoughts on how this will play out. Pretty much in agreement with Tom, too. Not sure if he agrees on the last week of Dec idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Gonna be honest here, this pattern is terrible. Luckily it's November. I like the end of the month storm, not as a threat but as a pattern changer. Hopefully that will rip the heights up into Greenland and the mean trough over the West should roll east by Dec 5 or so. Meaningful snow threats will be here by Dec 10-15 if my general pattern idea is correct. But the big one could come the last week of Dec under favorable blocking anomalies and a possible PNA spike. I like a hybrid/redeveloper in this pattern that ejects from the SW US and then towards the MA. All heresay at this point--but I never forecast specific long range events. In this case I am slightly more confident than usual...enough to introduce my thoughts on how this will play out. Pretty much in agreement with Tom, too. Not sure if he agrees on the last week of Dec idea. YAWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 Gonna be honest here, this pattern is terrible. Luckily it's November. I like the end of the month storm, not as a threat but as a pattern changer. Hopefully that will rip the heights up into Greenland and the mean trough over the West should roll east by Dec 5 or so. Meaningful snow threats will be here by Dec 10-15 if my general pattern idea is correct. But the big one could come the last week of Dec under favorable blocking anomalies and a possible PNA spike. I like a hybrid/redeveloper in this pattern that ejects from the SW US and then towards the MA. All heresay at this point--but I never forecast specific long range events. In this case I am slightly more confident than usual...enough to introduce my thoughts on how this will play out. Pretty much in agreement with Tom, too. Not sure if he agrees on the last week of Dec idea. Ur words to gods ears.......never seen you this confident before.....its great to see as a winter weather lover Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 7, 2011 Share Posted November 7, 2011 John, good post. I targetted the Dec 15-23 period in my winter outlook, partially for just to take a stab at it, and partially b/c of MJO cycling and analogs, and I still like that general period as well. I mentioned in the other thread something similar to yours - that the late Nov storm, if there is one, would likely be an interior snow event and pattern changer to colder wx for the Northeast US. The -NAO then locks in, and our snow chances begin after December 10th or so through the end of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 JB thinks the east will have lots of fun from Turkey Day to Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 JB thinks the east will have lots of fun from Turkey Day to Christmas hes off to a good start this yr lol....well see how long he keeps it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 ^^^ looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 JB thinks the east will have lots of fun from Turkey Day to Christmas Perfect time of year for it. Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Perfect time of year for it. Bring it. I want a 12/26 redux minus the crappy snow removal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 I want a 12/26 redux minus the crappy snow removal. Perfect of on 12/22. But we'd have to listen to lots of recordings of Bing Crosby's crooning about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 8, 2011 Share Posted November 8, 2011 Perfect of on 12/22. But we'd have to listen to lots of recordings of Bing Crosby's crooning about it. Yea I want it before Christmas (but I have to be able to get home to VA). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 9, 2011 Share Posted November 9, 2011 Awesome new ewall feature for the NAM. Choose the hour and then you can choose, radar, 2mtemp, accum_precip, mslp/thick/ptype, 10mwind or 850mb wind http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ewallhires.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Awesome new ewall feature for the NAM. Choose the hour and then you can choose, radar, 2mtemp, accum_precip, mslp/thick/ptype, 10mwind or 850mb wind http://www.meteo.psu...ewallhires.html wow.. pretty nice stuff. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 10, 2011 Author Share Posted November 10, 2011 wow.. pretty nice stuff. I like it. yeah really cool, psu and wunderground have really stepped up their model game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 gfs says snowy black friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Wow, I just realized that CAT5Andrew and ArtRosen was just banned yesterday. It seems like we keep losing members left and right recently out of the blue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 6z gfs has my storm :weight_lift: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 where's all the rain upton's be advertising? Looks like a dry day except for far eastern spots (unless the front activates later?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 Wow, I just realized that CAT5Andrew and ArtRosen was just banned yesterday. It seems like we keep losing members left and right recently out of the blue. yup-something with sending porn through pm's or something like that...guess we won't hear how Jan 15th 1947 was the coldest day he can remember or that June 30, 1989 had the strongest t-storm of all time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 gfs says snowy black friday lock it in, it's only 15 days away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 10, 2011 Share Posted November 10, 2011 lock it in, it's only 15 days away! i locked it in the day after the snowstorm....woot woot i love a white thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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