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NYC Banter and BS Thread Part III


Alpha5

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I MADE THE FOLLOWING POST ON MY WEATHER BLOG ON THE EVENING OF OCTOBER 17th AND FOLLOWED UP ON THE POSSIBILITY EVERY SINGLE DAY! NO JOKE.

First Snowstorm for Northwest NJ next Friday the 28th?

I have not mentioned it yet but for the past three days now the medium-range American model has been noticing the possibility of the first snowstorm for Northwest New Jersey for next Friday the 28th. I wanted to wait to see if a pattern was developing because it is a long way out, now 11 days away, but after the latest run of the Medium-Range American model that just came out, I can no longer hold back. The American model goes out to 16 days and since Saturday (about day 13), it has at one time or other on various model runs produced a Nor’easter for our area. What I look for with situations like this, so far in advance of a storm, is a pattern of behavior by the model. What intrigues me is that it is producing a storm in nearly the exact same location at about the same time on different model runs and we continue to get closer in time to the storm. I have absolutely seen the medium-range American model notice the potential for a large Nor’easter along the East Coast as far out as 13 days on many occasions before. Does it mean it will happen? Absolutely not. It can absolutely be a figment of the model’s imagination. I have seen far more computer generated snowstorms that do not happen at this time range than do, but again, for the previously mentioned reasons, I am now intrigued by this possibility and wanted to mention it to you. The European model is a far superior model in the shorter range, but it only goes out to 10 days in advance so it has been of little use so far, however it should be noted that on the latest run it does now show the potential for a strong Nor’easter along the East Coast next Thursday. The European model run however does not bring the cold air in fast enough and makes it just a heavy rain event for the East Coast. The American model brings a cold front through here on Wednesday of next week and much colder air starting next Thursday, and likely, cold enough for snow in Northwest New Jersey next Friday as the storm starts to intensify near the Delmarva Peninsula (the peninsula where Delaware, Maryland and Virginia all meet). The high temperature would likely only be in the 30’s in Northwest New Jersey with snow next Friday if the American model is correct, and temperatures dropping into the 20’s next Friday night the 28th. Snow showers and flurries would occur all weekend long on the 29th and 30th as well with strong winds and highs only in the 30’s all weekend as the storm intensifies and stalls over New England. Keep in mind that this could all be a figment of the American model’s imagination. On the other hand, it could all become a reality. Only time will tell, and if by any chance it does happen, you can say you heard it here first.

Posted by The Edge at 7:03 PM

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