TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NAM is real close, boys. We've got some time. Expect NAM to trend colder as SREFS are super close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Definitely looks better. A few more notches south. That's a hell of a temp gradient. Reminds me of some of our good years from earlier last decade where the rain/snow line would creep up to about Tom's River or thereabouts and there'd be rain everywhere south of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 SREF precip type 87 hours. They are colder than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 RSM is really close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Moved a bunch of posts to the thread on this storm. Let's keep the good discussion going over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Agreed..especially over Central New York with the 20's. I think 30's are definitely possible throughout the Northeast...but the moderately large spread of 20's F temps is a little ridiculous. yea, i definitely have to agree with both of you.. It's not like there is a real source of cold arctic air anywhere.. you'd need dew points in the 20's at that time.. I highly doubt it... lower - mid 30's is a better bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Agreed..especially over Central New York with the 20's. I think 30's are definitely possible throughout the Northeast...but the moderately large spread of 20's F temps is a little ridiculous. I would think with pockets of between -5 and -7C at 850mb the higher terrain would have no problem maintaining temps in the 20's. The boundary layer can only warm up so much when you are already at 2,000+ feet with such cold temps aloft and moderate precip falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You guys are looking at the wrong system. This 1st one for Thursday is 100% a rain event. The 2nd storm that the euro and now GFS show, is the one that might have some sloppy flakes mixed in for the coast and a decent snow event for the higher inland terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You guys are looking at the wrong system. This 1st one for Thursday is 100% a rain event. The 2nd storm that the euro and now GFS show, is the one that might have some sloppy flakes mixed in for the coast and a decent snow event for the higher inland terrain. agreed, its going to be in the low 50s for the first storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 agreed, its going to be in the low 50s for the first storm. Yeah. 50's and dropping into the 40's. ZERO chance at flakes for the coast. The 2nd one is a little intriguing now that the euro isn't the only real model showing a coastal with fairly cold upper air dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 It's a weather board, if you don't want to talk about the weather, go elsewhere. No one here is saying anything but what the models are showing and if you read carefully there is good disco on blocking, 2m temps, things like that. .. im jk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Well sun angle folks don't have a leg to stand on with this one. Sun angle for October 29th is about equivalent to February 10th. The question is can we get a system dynamic enough to produce strong vertical velocities, thus making the lower 100-150mb of the atmosphere fairly isothermal. Right now, I'd say if you're in the higher elevations of NW NJ you have a decent chance of minor accumulations. For the rest of us, probably flakes in the air as it stands now. We need a perfect set-up at this time of year, and given the antecedent airmass is not cold at all, any snow will be dynamically driven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 NOGAPS, LOL!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 euro? tombo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 euro? tombo? Kma? Jma? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I would think with pockets of between -5 and -7C at 850mb the higher terrain would have no problem maintaining temps in the 20's. The boundary layer can only warm up so much when you are already at 2,000+ feet with such cold temps aloft and moderate precip falling. Man, I hope the storm throws some moisture up north so Killington ski resort can open the ski season in the east...They open the top first and they only need snow from about 3400' or so, the temps shouldn't be a problem but the storm might be too far south. Usually I'm the biggest snow freak out there but I'm itching to get my ski on so I hope the storm goes north so I can make some turns next week (besides, I live in brooklyn so what are the odds that i"ll get any flakes out of this anyway) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 euro? tombo? Maybe if you were paying attention you would see eathlight and I doing it in the main thread, numb nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 .. and I think you're gonna have to go to the philly thread to find tombo, ever since they split us up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Maybe if you were paying attention you would see eathlight and I doing it in the main thread, numb nuts. ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 .. and I think you're gonna have to go to the philly thread to find tombo, ever since they split us up. haha well atleast we got alot of vista users now from NYC now..Plus we got the free euro on wunderground for people who dont wanna pay for vista. Gearing up for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 haha well atleast we got alot of vista users now from NYC now..Plus we got the free euro on wunderground for people who dont wanna pay for vista. Gearing up for winter earthlight and I rarely leave people hanging when it shows something good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 earthlight and I rarely leave people hanging when it shows something good. i was trying to hold off on getting vista until december, even tho most of the models are free, that site is so smooth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Euro pops an even more substantial PNA ridge at the end of its run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 -20F temps showing up in northern canada at 240 hours on the euro. Get a cross polar flow going and get that stuff down here!!! :weight_lift: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Mt holly going with highs near 50 at the end of the week and a low of 36 Sunday night imby. Just want a freeze and cold temps......im sure if the storm Saturday cuts to our west these temps will most definitely change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Mt holly going with highs near 50 at the end of the week and a low of 36 Sunday night imby. Just want a freeze and cold temps......im sure if the storm Saturday cuts to our west these temps will most definitely change. NAM has temps in the low 30's Friday morning and 12z euro has below 32 degrees, Monday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 http://www.weather.com/weather/tenday/USNJ0125 Is weather.com forecast accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 weather.com accurate Irony at its finest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBG Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 So it can't snow at the end of October? You know better than that. For the people who wish for October snow I say "be careful what you wish for". In 1972 and 1979 we had October snow. Having October weather for large stretchs of meteoroligcal winter, as we did those years (along with some big, unproductive cold in 1972-3) is nothing to hope for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 For the people who wish for October snow I say "be careful what you wish for". In 1972 and 1979 we had October snow. Having October weather for large stretchs of meteoroligcal winter, as we did those years (along with some big, unproductive cold in 1972-3) is nothing to hope for. meh, we saw snow in 09 and 10. Its the end of the month, and we have been torching for three weeks. This is not those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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