TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Between 6z and 12z friday, euro says NYC get its first flakes eastern PA and NW Jersey should see some accumulation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Between 6z and 12z friday, euro says NYC get its first flakes eastern PA and NW Jersey should see some accumulation How much stock do you put in it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 How much stock do you put in it? Its a good setup, but is highly dependent on how much precip is left when its finally cold enough to snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Its a good setup, but is highly dependent on how much precip is left when its finally cold enough to snow. That is always the case this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 That is always the case this time of the year. yup, this is only bonus flakes to get everyone warmed up. Even if it did stick, it would be melted before earthlight gets his lazy ass out of bed Friday morning for his permanent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 AMSU UAH satellite analysis of the lower troposphere shows rapid cooling with global temperatures near record low levels for the 2002-2011 period, only .16C above the record low daily set back in 2008. This is a significant drop from what we saw over the summer with large positive anomalies, and GFS surface analysis pegs the 8-day anomaly at .13C, also a decline, and it's a warm-biased model. That could explain why we're starting to see so much more blue on the map, along with cold air brought in from the PV near the Canadian Archipelago. Good post Nate. I agree global temps are going to plummet over the next few months, and if climate models are correct with a developing -AMO by spring 2012, we should see global temps fall lower than the previous drop; I wouldn't be surprised if we got down to -0.2 to -0.25 globally by early next year. BTW, how you liking your job so far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 nice bowling ball at the end of the cmc run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 FWIW... 12z Euro accumulated snowfall. Verbatim, this would have 2-3" of snow in N NJ. If this were 10-20 miles further south, I would be in the 1-4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 FWIW... 12z Euro accumulated snowfall. Verbatim, this would have 2-3" of snow in N NJ. If this were 10-20 miles further south, I would be in the 1- 4" range. Lol weather porn!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Time to break at the ku books to get me in the mood for winter haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 LOL :lol: :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Lol weather porn!!! That's nothing compared to the DGEX map Trials just posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 Dgex ftw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 That's nothing compared to the DGEX map Trials just posted The DGEX is the porn that you need to pay for!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 23, 2011 Share Posted October 23, 2011 p009 destroys catskills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 dgex snow map. This is 6 hour accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 DGEX basically slows down the first vort and allows the second to catch up and phase at the right time so the storm pops out on the coast. The GFS is more progressive (typical nina) in keeping the vorts apart, so nothing goes bang. At this point, you basically need a closed off vort to help draw in enough cold air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 DGEX basically slows down the first vort and allows the second to catch up and phase at the right time so the storm pops out on the coast. The GFS is more progressive (typical nina) in keeping the vorts apart, so nothing goes bang. At this point, you basically need a closed off vort to help draw in enough cold air the dgex doesnt close off the 500 low. It just bombs out giving intense precip rates and drawing the cold air in while its precipitating with an almost classic CCB. The snowy euro solutions don't close off 500 either, just time the precip and cold air correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 the dgex doesnt close off the 500 low. It just bombs out giving intense precip rates and drawing the cold air in while its precipitating with an almost classic CCB. The snowy euro solutions don't close off 500 either, just time the precip and cold air correctly. I dont have the Euro H5 maps, and I guess i just read the DGEX wrong. The point is, the two bring together the two pieces of energy that the GFS keeps separate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I dont have the Euro H5 maps, and I guess i just read the DGEX wrong. The point is, the two bring together the two pieces of energy that the GFS keeps separate I think that the two lows will phase together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 I think that the two lows will phase together. lows don't phase. He is speaking about the possible split stream interaction and phasing of the vorts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 lows don't phase. He is speaking about the possible split stream interaction and phasing of the vorts. That's what I meant, I am not thinking well right now, that's thanks to these damn painkillers that I was put on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 srefs at the very end of their range have the 0 line at 850 knocking on our door with a weak wave along the front. Looks like euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 srefs at the very end of their range have the 0 line at 850 knocking on our door with a weak wave along the front. Looks like euro I think that if tonight's runs produce the same results, then we may have to start to consider the GFS as an outlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 eta would be a colder solution. loop it, we would love this in the heart of winter, http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ETAEAST_0z/etaloop.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 24, 2011 Author Share Posted October 24, 2011 lows don't phase. He is speaking about the possible split stream interaction and phasing of the vorts. Exactly, the GFS keeps the wave weak and splits the two vorts, lagging a piece back in the sw. This doesnt allow any storm to form at all, more like a drawn out FROPA, which doesnt benefit anyone in the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Exactly, the GFS keeps the wave weak and splits the two vorts, lagging a piece back in the sw. This doesnt allow any storm to form at all, more like a drawn out FROPA, which doesnt benefit anyone in the NYC area Would you consider the GFS as an outlier as of this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 0z GFS is basically just a cold front. Warm and rain for the area . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Anyone have the precipitation maps for this ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.