SnoSki14 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Mid/late next week looks pretty miserable. Per 12z GFS raw output, we'd be talking 4-5 days of high temps in the 40s, overcast, heavy rain at times. Either way, going to put a large dent in the positive departures over the East. I don't think it will be that chilly, probably low to mid 50s, on and off rain showers with occasional spurts of moderate rain for a couple hours. It looks like another warm up is in store after the storm passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 euro seems to be more aggressive with the front pressure and strength of the high pressure that is bringing in the colder air. Let's see where this goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 meh, its just going to be a lot of rain. With no blocking, the SE just reflexes its muscle once the front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 euro seems to be more aggressive with the front pressure and strength of the high pressure that is bringing in the colder air. Let's see where this goes. Could be colder, I still have not seen it yet, but overall, how does it look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 meh, its just going to be a lot of rain. With no blocking, the SE just reflexes its muscle once the front comes through. I would rather there be a SÉ ridge now, than in DJF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 meh, its just going to be a lot of rain. With no blocking, the SE just reflexes its muscle once the front comes through. We don't need more rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Buffalo is gonna get a ton of snow. Second time in 5 years they have a huge halloween snow storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Buffalo is gonna get a ton of snow. Second time in 5 years they have a huge halloween snow storm. Good for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Buffalo is gonna get a ton of snow. Second time in 5 years they have a huge halloween snow storm. I have my buffalo webcam ready Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 22, 2011 Author Share Posted October 22, 2011 Tease http://coolwx.com/modelts/images/gfs/current/KHPN/prec.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Unc..thought you get a kick out of this..White Christmas 1963 on film wow that was great...I have home movies from Christmas 1961...Similar with the family tree and Regina Church on 65st... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 THe allergies are the worst I can ever remember for an Autumn.I rarely sneeze this time of the year unless I have a cold and I am sneezing multiple times in 10 seconds several times a day for the past several weeks now.I cant wait until we get the first frost. Allergies are not normally much of an issue for me, but this has been a rough season. Keeping my fingers crossed for the first frost/freeze tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cold&cloudy Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Mid/late next week looks pretty miserable. Per 12z GFS raw output, we'd be talking 4-5 days of high temps in the 40s, overcast, heavy rain at times. Either way, going to put a large dent in the positive departures over the East. Sounds like perfectly dreary autumn weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Buffalo is gonna get a ton of snow. Second time in 5 years they have a huge halloween snow storm. If we don't get the blocking back......congrats chicago and 07-08 redux for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 If we don't get the blocking back......congrats chicago and 07-08 redux for us Isn't that the story every year though? Pretty hard to get good snows without blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Isn't that the story every year though? Pretty hard to get good snows without blocking. In la Nina the se ridge really flexes its muscles........with nothing to stop it, its warm storm tracks for us........this is why we typically avg less snow relative to avg in mod-strong ninas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 In la Nina the se ridge really flexes its muscles........with nothing to stop it, its warm storm tracks for us........this is why we typically avg less snow relative to avg in mod-strong ninas But isn't this one going to be a weak east based la Nina, which is good for snow in our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Good for them. How much snow?? Sent from iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 But isn't this one going to be a weak east based la Nina, which is good for snow in our area? I think we're looking at a fairly healthy moderate event, peak -1.0c to -1.3c in region 3.4, but I also have a good deal of confidence in the NAO/AO being negative this winter, strongly at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 But isn't this one going to be a weak east based la Nina, which is good for snow in our area? Looks to be on its way to low end moderate. As trials, Isotherms, and a few others have said you like to see some type of blocking come back in november.....right now ensembles not really showing that for the start of november. Looks like we will have our coldest air of this fall season next weekend......yet looks to be in and out with no block established Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 meh, its just going to be a lot of rain. With no blocking, the SE just reflexes its muscle once the front comes through. I'll be happy to see flakes; any type of accumulation is a waste at this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I think we're looking at a fairly healthy moderate event, peak -1.0c to -1.3c in region 3.4, but I also have a good deal of confidence in the NAO/AO being negative this winter, strongly at times. Fwiw im not trying to damper ur outlook....just explaining what could go wrong. Im not a long range expert, nor have much knowledge on forecasting blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Looks to be on its way to low end moderate. As trials, Isotherms, and a few others have said you like to see some type of blocking come back in november.....right now ensembles not really showing that for the start of november. Looks like we will have our coldest air of this fall season next weekend......yet looks to be in and out with no block established I don't think we should worry for now, Tim. Having the NAO positive through October is good news for the winter; I'd start getting concerned if we see no semblance of blocking by the Nov 10-15th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Fwiw im not trying to damper ur outlook....just explaining what could go wrong. Im not a long range expert, nor have much knowledge on forecasting blocking Yeah no doubt, nothing's written in stone. It's good to discuss what could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I don't think we should worry for now, Tim. Having the NAO positive through October is good news for the winter; I'd start getting concerned if we see no semblance of blocking by the Nov 10-15th time frame. Yeah its def easy to get antsy this time of year ...just need to stay patient. Hope to get our first freeze next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 I don't think we should worry for now, Tim. Having the NAO positive through October is good news for the winter; I'd start getting concerned if we see no semblance of blocking by the Nov 10-15th time frame. THanksgiving and the beginning of DEC is my timeframe to being concerned.BTW, Excellent WInter forecast.It was the best written one I have ever seen.I like it a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Isn't that the story every year though? Pretty hard to get good snows without blocking. 93-94 no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 93-94 no blocking. The NAO was highly positive but the AO was negative.THe PNA was as positive as its ever been.ALL 3 worked in conjunction to give us the frigid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 If the NAO and AO stay negative throughout the winter, we might be looking at another repeat of last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 the nao and ao were at record low levels the past two years...it produced five storms 10" or more...That's not needed for a good winter like 1966-67 or 1993-94... we had winters with a very negative ao/nao with below average snowfall...1962-63 was one of those winters... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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