Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

NYC Banter and BS Thread Part III


Alpha5

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

00z gfs has a bowling ball lol

986@the mouth of the Delaware constitutes bowling ball?

It closes off @h5 fairly early, but it makes it to the coast. Certainly not a lot of cold air to work with b/c it slows down the storm so it never gets a chance to interact with the fresh "cold" air mass.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The control run of the Euro places a sub 978mb low over Western Long Island, at 0z on Saturday with 850mbs crashing behind it through all of Northern New Jersey, changing the rain to snow for most of Northern New Jersey with a dusting to an inch of accumulation.

No one lives in northern NJ; ergo, no one cares.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lol. Yes, I guess there are only about 2 million people here that would be affected.

I'm kidding. It's the banter thread. But 2 million people? What do you constitute part of northern NJ, especially when referring to borderline snow events?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is similar to the Halloween 93 storm. Parts of Central PA got over 4" of snow while the coast was in the low 40s with rain and wind. Not sure how close to the coast the rain/snow line got though. I'm guessing if it was 40 and rain in EWR then NW NJ must have changed over at some point.

The control run of the Euro places a sub 978mb low over Western Long Island, at 0z on Saturday with 850mbs crashing behind it through all of Northern New Jersey, changing the rain to snow for most of Northern New Jersey with a dusting to an inch of accumulation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the following list would constitute Northern New Jersey, and if you guess that about half of these people could potentially be affected, then there is the 2 million. I know you were kidding.

Northern

3,768,531

Bergen

884,118

Essex

792,311

Hudson

608,975

Morris

470,212

Passaic

490,374

Union

522,541

Northwestern

246,603

Sussex

144,165

Warren

102,438

I'm kidding. It's the banter thread. But 2 million people? What do you constitute part of northern NJ, especially when referring to borderline snow events?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I think you should have said NW NJ. Essex and Union are basically within a degree or two of EWR during a noreaster

Well, the following list would constitute Northern New Jersey, and if you guess that about half of these people could potentially be affected, then there is the 2 million. I know you were kidding.

Northern

3,768,531

Bergen

884,118

Essex

792,311

Hudson

608,975

Morris

470,212

Passaic

490,374

Union

522,541

Northwestern

246,603

Sussex

144,165

Warren

102,438

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the snow output from the control run of the 0z Euro shows surface snow throughout Northern New Jersey maybe a couple of miles west of NYC and Newark, but definitely in most of Northern New Jersey. That is why I said it they way I did. Is the model correct, that is another story. I am just saying what it shows.

I think you should have said NW NJ. Essex and Union are basically within a degree or two of EWR during a noreaster

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well, the snow output from the control run of the 0z Euro shows surface snow throughout Northern New Jersey maybe a couple of miles west of NYC and Newark, but definitely in most of Northern New Jersey. That is why I said it they way I did. Is the model correct, that is another story. I am just saying what it shows.

When I think of northern NJ during borderline snow events I think of Butler NJ and north and west of there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No problem. I've never seen snow on the ground in October at this elevation so we'll see

Well, the snow output from the control run of the 0z Euro shows surface snow throughout Northern New Jersey maybe a couple of miles west of NYC and Newark, but definitely in most of Northern New Jersey. That is why I said it they way I did. Is the model correct, that is another story. I am just saying what it shows.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6z gfs is a lakes runner.Good sign for winter.

Sarcastic or not, it's a bad sign for sure if it plays out that way. The storm is still over 5 days out so anything can happen though

but winter patterns generally lock in as soon as October so a lake cutter could be a precursor for the rest of the winter. This is why

I believe this winter will be the worst since 2007-2008 and a lot of people are not going to be happy seeing cutter after cutter, but get used to it.

The wild card remains the NAO, if there are negative periods, then maybe we could get at least decent (4-8)(6-10) inch snowstorm, but the odds

are low. I think NYC gets 10-15" tops.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sarcastic or not, it's a bad sign for sure if it plays out that way. The storm is still over 5 days out so anything can happen though

but winter patterns generally lock in as soon as October so a lake cutter could be a precursor for the rest of the winter. This is why

I believe this winter will be the worst since 2007-2008 and a lot of people are not going to be happy seeing cutter after cutter, but get used to it.

The wild card remains the NAO, if there are negative periods, then maybe we could get at least decent (4-8)(6-10) inch snowstorm, but the odds

are low. I think NYC gets 10-15" tops.

Since when do Lakes cutters in October mean the rest of the winter goes the same way? We had lakes cutters in fall both last year and the year before.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Since when do Lakes cutters in October mean the rest of the winter goes the same way? We had lakes cutters in fall both last year and the year before.

That's why the NAO remains the wild card, but if we consistently see cutter after cutter for the next month or so, then start to worry. The past storm was

inland and this next storm is already trending more inland.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...