Sundog Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I would say the odds are pretty good actually.. there has been good consistency and also the 6Z ensembles are pretty robust for a deep trough in the east. The 850 mb ensemble temps dip as low as -5C as well. Here's to an early season cold snap Anything to get rid of these pesky mosquitoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Here's to an early season cold snap Anything to get rid of these pesky mosquitoes. Try taking a bath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Euro is nothing remotely close to the GFS in the long range. Euro actually has above average temps, days 8-10 while the GFS has -10 850's. OK there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Euro is nothing remotely close to the GFS in the long range. Euro actually has above average temps, days 8-10 while the GFS has -10 850's. OK there... Euro flipped from 12z. Its irrelevant, both OP have little skill in the long range. The gfs ensembles have been extrememely consistent and right now that's the best you can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I'm not buying the GFS at this point. Remember when it showed 40s for the end of this week? now we'll be lucky to get one sub 60 degree day when the normal high is around 63. The cold air just doesn't to come here.... Euro is nothing remotely close to the GFS in the long range. Euro actually has above average temps, days 8-10 while the GFS has -10 850's. OK there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 CMC ensembles look like the GFS in the long range, almost unanimous amongst the members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Even the nogaps has it..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Even the nogaps has it..... Damn... Start the thread now (not srs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 In LA All east coast airports are closed down, had a flight sunday into JFK. It costs $500 to switch flights, so I have to let the airline rebook me. There are no open flights until wednesday So I'm flying into Chicago tonight. Then this, all because of a hurricane that wont even be a hurricane by the time it gets to us. Are you home yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 yeah, this thread title sucks. Change it Alphy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Try taking a bath. Your wife said I smelled fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 What a torch this fall has been....usually get my first frost and freeze before halloween ......not seeing that this year.........forky got his wish so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 What a torch this fall has been....usually get my first frost and freeze before halloween ......not seeing that this year.........forky got his wish so far. I wouldn't call it a torch. Most of our big negative departures happened early in the fall season so it was still too early to hit frost/freeze levels. Except for that big warmup a couple weeks ago it hasn't really been that warm. We've seen far worse over the last decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I wouldn't call it a torch. Most of our big negative departures happened early in the fall season so it was still too early to hit frost/freeze levels. Except for that big warmup a couple weeks ago it hasn't really been that warm. We've seen far worse over the last decade. Wait I thought you said ur still wearing shorts and sandals? That happens every fall? We have been mild so far....other the a handful of cool days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 whatever flakes that fall wont stick..Sun angle, BL issues, La nina, Warm Ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Your wife said I smelled fine. Must have been when she was picking up your wife for our threesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 whatever flakes that fall wont stick..Sun angle, BL issues, La nina, Warm Ocean. I agree, flakes won't stick to the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 What a torch this fall has been....usually get my first frost and freeze before halloween ......not seeing that this year.........forky got his wish so far. Well, fine with me, not a big fan of cold when it won't produce snow, and the golfing when it hasn't rained has been nice. Its all about the blocking in November, see Bluewave's research. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I agree, flakes won't stick to the ocean. marine layer creates a dome of 50 degree ground temps.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I wouldn't call it a torch. Most of our big negative departures happened early in the fall season so it was still too early to hit frost/freeze levels. Except for that big warmup a couple weeks ago it hasn't really been that warm. We've seen far worse over the last decade. It's been pretty warm. Through October 17th: NYC: +2.3 LGA: +2.2 JFK: +3.1 EWR: +3.7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 this thread sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 this thread sucks You're lead moderater, adapt and overcome. Show us to the promise land in the banter thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 You're lead moderater, adapt and overcome. Show us to the promise land in the banter thread. getting ready for salting and plowing season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 getting ready for salting and plowing season? You know it.....see what happens. Normal snowfall is fine by me, we avg 26 for reason. For every 09-11 there will be 06-08 thrown in to balance it out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Big PNA ridge with a deep trough coming into the east. Lets hope this storm shifts more east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 this thread sucks why is your name blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 why is your name blue Everyone is blue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 why is your name blue the bigger question is why does he care about a banter thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 why is your name blue He got demoted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Wait I thought you said ur still wearing shorts and sandals? That happens every fall? We have been mild so far....other the a handful of cool days. Eh I always do that unless highs stay in the 50s. Since our average throughout October is generally in the 60's I haven't stopped wearing shorts. Must have been when she was picking up your wife for our threesome. Haha It's been pretty warm. Through October 17th: NYC: +2.3 LGA: +2.2 JFK: +3.1 EWR: +3.7 If it wasn't for that torch these numbers wouldn't look so bad. This hasn't been October 2007 you know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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