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Irene OBS / Discussion Thread


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I noticed in HPC's 0z 2day total they have shifted the heaviest axis a little west with the axis across eastern PA up thru western to NW NJ up to eastern NY. 7-9" along that axis.

http://www.hpc.ncep....pf/day1-2.shtml

Its been mentioned that a kind of coastal front out ahead of Irene would be a focus for heavier rain, especially as she moves north and starts to transition....and that if the center/former eye tracked right along the coast this could push the heaviest rain just west of I-95 corridor

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Its been mentioned that a kind of coastal front out ahead of Irene would be a focus for heavier rain, especially as she moves north and starts to transition....and that if the center/former eye tracked right along the coast this could push the heaviest rain just west of I-95 corridor

Been away much of the afternoon with family but I figured that was and would possible end up being the case. Does not look like it now but in the end that axis may well be where the highest totals occur. Much of these areas also have the advantage of upslope enhancement.

In yesterdays thread on picking locations for highest winds and rains in PA/NJ/DE for rain I had MPO in PA and MMU in NJ and ILG in DE. That pretty closely matches HPC's axis. lol Regardless its a a s**t load of rain for just about everyone.

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tombo, you get a wind.gust measurement on that last squall? it was pretty intense

that squall line was the strongest wind so far....my anemometer has some obstruction, it is on my roof.only gusted to 20 here...pisses me off upper darby took down their weatherbug station... so i cant get an accurate reading really.

edit: just checked weatherbug from haverford hs and peenwod within 2 mile sof us and they have peaked at 27 mph...

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just something to ponder. Richmond which is further away from the center than we are and on the "weaker" side of storm has just gusted to 71 mph...360,000 in the city w/o power over 60 percent of the city is out...dominion electric has 660,000 w/o power.

Looks pretty bad with the heaviest rain axis, tropical storm force winds looking to set up in extreme eastern PA and interior NJ. Obviously eastern Jersey and Del. are going to get rocked by the the circulation of Irene directly, but those further inland willl probably go down as the "forgotten about" area of the Irene.

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that squall line was the strongest wind so far....my anemometer has some obstruction, it is on my roof.only gusted to 20 here...pisses me off upper darby took down their weatherbug station... so i cant get an accurate reading really.

bummer... that had to of been 45mph easily.

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We can have it bad..I just want the power to stay on and trees not to hit my home. Power in neighborhood is underground connected to a substation probably 1/2 mile to 1 mile away. I would not think the substation would be near any trees.

So far, moderate rain and winds not above 10-15 mph.

Looks pretty bad with the heaviest rain axis, tropical storm force winds looking to set up in extreme eastern PA and interior NJ. Obviously eastern Jersey and Del. are going to get rocked by the the circulation of Irene directly, but those further inland willl probably go down as the "forgotten about" area of the Irene.

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Seems like the northern edge of the heavier rain is struggling to get north of the Blue Mountain at the moment. Has Irene become nearly stationary, or am I seeing where the sharp gradient is going to set up (just like in the winter storms)?

Same thing happened here most of the afternoon, but it (heavy stuff) finally got in here. Maybe the center needs to get another 50-100 miles north for ya......she sure hasn't move too much in the past hour on the radar loop.

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1.39" of rain for the day here in West Chester. Really starting to pick up here in the last 30 minutes. High wind gust still at 28mph from 6:03pm, but latest 10min average is 11mph. Gusts now to 26mph. Outside you can definitely tell the difference from the "nice summer rain" (as my wife called it) that we had most of the afternoon. Radar shows the squall bands just starting to reach our area. Darkness is falling, so all of this feels a little more hairy than it probably is. Gonna be a long night I think!

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Seems like the northern edge of the heavier rain is struggling to get north of the Blue Mountain at the moment. Has Irene become nearly stationary, or am I seeing where the sharp gradient is going to set up (just like in the winter storms)?

There's no chance you won't get into the heavy stuff. If you take Irene's current positon and draw a line to NYC, and then take the heavy rain shield and draw it parallel to the track, you'll see you can't miss. However, I do believe the best dynamics will be in extrene E-PA, SE-PA, and Jersey. Hurricane Schwartz indicated earlier that amounts were being pared back in some locations, and on his map that was the LV and N&W. He still had extreme Eastern PA and Jersey getting 8-12 and up to 15". Philly was included in that area. I think we're seeing where the heavy rain is setting up for this event.

Edit: But I've been wrong before :)

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Same thing happened here most of the afternoon, but it (heavy stuff) finally got in here. Maybe the center needs to get another 50-100 miles north for ya......she sure hasn't move too much in the past hour on the radar loop.

That's the way it appeared to me as well.

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