Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Goodmorning. Woke up and nothing has changed, so the few things I had not done are being rushed to completion. I am not looking at this as a tropical system, I am looking at this as the worst nor' easter of my life which scares the hell out of me regarding surge. Still have not made a decision whether or not to leave, worried that we may not be able to get back for a few days do to downed trees and wires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 No Joke! He has a "new scale" he is pushing where he includes the pressure in the strength of the storm. Novel idea that! He actually said that last night to Fred Thomson on the Hannity Show. He does this as a means to still hype desite less than extraordinary winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherdude Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Regarding the lower 950s pressure value and the winds "not matching" the important thing to remember is that the pressure GRADIENT is what drives the wind. Pressure gradient is the change in pressure over horizontal distance. So it has everything to do with the surrounding pressure and that is why the value of the low pressure alone is like taking something out of its correct context. The reason NHC dropped pressure from the scale is for exactly this reason, a 950s storm is not necessarily a Cat 3 at all, especially in a very broad low pressure area. A tighter 950 low would mean more wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not what Ryan, Phil, Will think, and if you look at the radar you can see it is heading over Pamilico sound. Also the trough is now influencing it. Off the Delmarva off NJ to ISLIP are is my call. Hopefully....I'm out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 There would be no room on the Tobin...but the Sox could get they second game in Thankfully, I am only 15-20 min from the Tobin, so I would get a good spot.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 AWT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I would be ok with this... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Let's be honest though...the fact that this is even a reality is pretty exciting. Hoping to get a cigar in before the rains start! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Regarding the lower 950s pressure value and the winds "not matching" the important thing to remember is that the pressure GRADIENT is what drives the wind. Pressure gradient is the change in pressure over horizontal distance. So it has everything to do with the surrounding pressure and that is why the value of the low pressure alone is like taking something out of its correct context. The reason NHC dropped pressure from the scale is for exactly this reason, a 950s storm is not necessarily a Cat 3 at all, especially in a very broad low pressure area. A tighter 950 low would mean more wind. Yeah I agree..it's good they revamped the scale....I mean Katrina was was..like 920mb when she made landfall! But the low pressure and broad wind field is also a concern for surge too. Also, I don't think this hooks violently east either when it gets to the NYC latitude. I hope it stays more over water so the intensity stays up a bit, but it may drag across the NJ shore. Even if it does, should still be some pretty strong winds across SNE with tree damage and power outages the most likely impact, but the surge will be a problem too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 latest fix looks like is moving N/NNE.. maybe starting to turn a bit.. or could be a wobble.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
correnjim1 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Let's be honest though...the fact that this is even a reality is pretty exciting. Hoping to get a cigar in before the rains start! With the track that was just posted,i think will do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 rain showers making good progress.. red sox game will be wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 also last fix.. 131930 3450N 07630W 7516 02080 9503 +200 +175 211025 026 /// /// 03 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Let's be honest though...the fact that this is even a reality is pretty exciting. Hoping to get a cigar in before the rains start! Yup, Going to be puffing up a Rocky Patel as i get the yard secured and the generator prepped this morning........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 latest fix looks like is moving N/NNE.. maybe starting to turn a bit.. or could be a wobble.. She's been wobbling a lot...even for hours at a time. Last night for a time it looked like it would go more E toward HSE but then we saw it go left a little and turn back due north which allowed it to make landfall just E of Morehead city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tickets were as low as $4 for game 2 online with tickets as cheap as $10 for game 1 My brother was thinking of getting us tickets but I told him we probably shouldn't. I got RF box seats on StubHub for tonight...20 bucks a pop...really good deal. I don't mind getting a little wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 pressure down sat presentation looks good...........unbelievable arbor damage on its way to all of New England. Surge into NYC, western long island sound will be devestating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 HSE up to 76kt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 BOS: +1.8F BDL: +0.6F PVD +1.1F ORH: +0.9F Keep on dreaming, Pete. And NC reporting 115mph winds with tornadoes. Storm is pretty unimpressive, I'd say. First, nearly everyone is in agreement that Irene is not the storm most thought it would be (thankfully). I never downplayed the impact this storm will have, it will be a serious situation. Secondly, while your ability to regurgitate raw data is no doubt impressive, you omit the real story behind the numbers. Any positive departures are fueled largely by warmer than normal overnight lows (most likely caused by persistent cloud cover from numerous bouts of rain). Also, a positive departure of +.6 or +.9 is less than impressive.The month is not over and with no high heat in the forecast (in fact cooler than normal in the forecast here) those numbers will continue to slip as they have nearly all month. We shall see where they end up in the next few days. As for the wet part of my summer outlook I couldn't have been more correct. Best of luck in the storm which will be the exclamation point on the wet summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I would be ok with this... Extremely tight cluster...I think we have our track. This ain't going riding up Cape May's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattmfm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 AWT My point of posting is actually was that it continues of a N/NNE track well west of what was the 5AM forecast. Who knows if the push NE begins soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NAM is back west after 06z was east....12z run is much faster than the 06z was. Its pretty much sitting on ACY at 12z tomorrow morning this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The eye goes just to my west FTW..It's like I was given control of the wx and track for this beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 12z NAM into ALB. New England may even be spared the worst rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 pressure down sat presentation looks good...........unbelievable arbor damage on its way to all of New England. Surge into NYC, western long island sound will be devestating. Best summer ever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Extremely tight cluster...I think we have our track. This ain't going riding up Cape May's fanny. I think it could brush it or at least have the western side move into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 The eye goes just to my west FTW..It's like I was given control of the wx and track for this beast. No rain tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 No rain tho WHo cares about rain..I want wind..and wind is what I will get. And it's raining here now BTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I think it could brush it or at least have the western side move into it. Yeah, and I think that's kind of what we want for a track west of all of us...but this shouldn't barrel right into the NJ mainland. No rain tho 3-6'' instead of 8-10''...BFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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