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Hurricane Irene - Discussion V


Baroclinic Zone

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Down safely on the Cape...had to drive through a horrific band of rain though just south of the pike on the way.

The more I go over data, the more impressed I get of the duration of potentially damaging winds over most of SNE. The duration is what could be a real killer for trees/branches. I expect a lot of power outages because of this. The rain certainly won't help matters either.

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TWC pros discussing this idea we've bounced around on this thread:

that Irene is not a classic hurricane in which we just focus on the "category" based on eye wall intensity and windspeed

it was very disorganized past 48 hours, so the energy of intensification went into generating a very large strong windshield rather than high windspeeds of an intense eye

the pressures are holding at 950 mb, quite amazing for the land interaction, and more fitting for a Cat 3 hurricane if Irene had an organized eye...

instead we have a bigger impact over a much larger area, and probably will be slower to weaken than the typical hurricane

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Down safely on the Cape...had to drive through a horrific band of rain though just south of the pike on the way.

The more I go over data, the more impressed I get of the duration of potentially damaging winds over most of SNE. The duration is what could be a real killer for trees/branches. I expect a lot of power outages because of this. The rain certainly won't help matters either.

Will, I will be just west of Nashua, NH - I think I might get more wind there than in Danvers. Thoughts?

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Down safely on the Cape...had to drive through a horrific band of rain though just south of the pike on the way.

The more I go over data, the more impressed I get of the duration of potentially damaging winds over most of SNE. The duration is what could be a real killer for trees/branches. I expect a lot of power outages because of this. The rain certainly won't help matters either.

Good to hear that from you Will. What are you thinking for sustained and gusts?

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And...

1) DAMAGING WINDS. IRENE HAS SUCH A BROAD CIRCULATION THAT

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 60

MPH...WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE ALSO LIKELY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE

SOUTH COAST...AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN .CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IRENE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS

NO LONGER SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN INVERSION...WHICH MEANS THAT

THESE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE INDEED LIKELY TO REACH THE

SURFACE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SW TO WSW WINDS

BEHIND IRENE WILL ALSO PROBABLY PACK A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH...WELL

INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

Yay.

Just got back from MD. 8 hours to finally get ahead of the rain--7 miles from home.

Raining lightly with .08 so far.

I've followed the threads on my phone (my wife was reading them to me as I drove! lol). What a crazy storm. Given some of the earlier qpf posts, I guess the latest further west track won't impact the chances for some really good rains.

69.1/67--GROSS!

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Yeah, Danvers is farther east of the center but its on the coast. I still think we do just fine up here.

Yeah they end up with 950mb winds about 10-20 knots stronger than ASH...but at any time, one of the stronger rainbands could mix down some winds from further aloft around 900mb. Everyone should see pretty good wind gusts...I think a lot of people don't realize how strong gusts of 50 knots are. You don't need hurricane force gusts to cause a ton of damage with heavy rains and full foliage.

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Yeah they end up with 950mb winds about 10-20 knots stronger than ASH...but at any time, one of the stronger rainbands could mix down some winds from further aloft around 900mb. Everyone should see pretty good wind gusts...I think a lot of people don't realize how strong gusts of 50 knots are. You don't need hurricane force gusts to cause a ton of damage with heavy rains and full foliage.

Feb 2010?

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Yeah they end up with 950mb winds about 10-20 knots stronger than ASH...but at any time, one of the stronger rainbands could mix down some winds from further aloft around 900mb. Everyone should see pretty good wind gusts...I think a lot of people don't realize how strong gusts of 50 knots are. You don't need hurricane force gusts to cause a ton of damage with heavy rains and full foliage.

I can probably count the number of times I've seen legitimate 50kt gusts here on my hands...with foliage on the trees...one hand.

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And...

1) DAMAGING WINDS. IRENE HAS SUCH A BROAD CIRCULATION THAT

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 60

MPH...WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE ALSO LIKELY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE

SOUTH COAST...AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN .CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IRENE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS

NO LONGER SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN INVERSION...WHICH MEANS THAT

THESE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE INDEED LIKELY TO REACH THE

SURFACE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SW TO WSW WINDS

BEHIND IRENE WILL ALSO PROBABLY PACK A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH...WELL

INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

Yay.

Just got back from MD. 8 hours to finally get ahead of the rain--7 miles from home.

Raining lightly with .08 so far.

I've followed the threads on my phone (my wife was reading them to me as I drove! lol). What a crazy storm. Given some of the earlier qpf posts, I guess the latest further west track won't impact the chances for some really good rains.

69.1/67--GROSS!

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And...

1) DAMAGING WINDS. IRENE HAS SUCH A BROAD CIRCULATION THAT

DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR THROUGHOUT THE REGION.

SUSTAINED TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...ON THE ORDER OF 45 TO 60

MPH...WILL OCCUR FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.

GUSTS TO HURRICANE FORCE ARE ALSO LIKELY... ESPECIALLY ALONG THE

SOUTH COAST...AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN .CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF IRENE. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS

NO LONGER SHOW MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN INVERSION...WHICH MEANS THAT

THESE STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE INDEED LIKELY TO REACH THE

SURFACE. IT IS ALSO IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE SW TO WSW WINDS

BEHIND IRENE WILL ALSO PROBABLY PACK A SIGNIFICANT PUNCH...WELL

INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

Yay.

Just got back from MD. 8 hours to finally get ahead of the rain--7 miles from home.

Raining lightly with .08 so far.

I've followed the threads on my phone (my wife was reading them to me as I drove! lol). What a crazy storm. Given some of the earlier qpf posts, I guess the latest further west track won't impact the chances for some really good rains.

69.1/67--GROSS!

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I can probably count the number of times I've seen legitimate 50kt gusts here on my hands...with foliage on the trees...one hand.

Do you guys remember that severe TSTORM line a week after 6/1? That strong gust front before the rain started? How strong were those winds? Anyone Remember?

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I got back from the sox game a little while ago. I left right around when they started the 2nd rain delay, which was probably the worst possible time to leave because we got into that really intense rain band which instantly turned the fenway T stop into a makeshift river. Really really impressive rain rates for sure in that early band.

The NHC 5pm disco mentioned that winds are having an unusually difficult time reaching the surface which will pose a big risk for the sky scrapers in NYC. I think they said floors 40-80 would be 20% higher than ground and floors >90 should expect winds >30% of the surface. Just to put some numbers to it. If NYC has sustained at 50 and gust to 75 that would be Sustained 65 G97.5 MPH.

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Yeah they end up with 950mb winds about 10-20 knots stronger than ASH...but at any time, one of the stronger rainbands could mix down some winds from further aloft around 900mb. Everyone should see pretty good wind gusts...I think a lot of people don't realize how strong gusts of 50 knots are. You don't need hurricane force gusts to cause a ton of damage with heavy rains and full foliage.
still thinking we rip 60 to 70 ? sustained 20 or so right now at fal heights.
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Latest VDM:

950 mb, max wind E quad 87 kt... stronger than the last reading

000URNT12 KNHC 272034VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011A. 27/20:03:50ZB. 36 deg 00 min N 076 deg 07 min WC. 700 mb 2630 mD. NAE. NAF. 157 deg 73 ktG. 067 deg 29 nmH. 950 mbI. 12 C / 2744 mJ. 16 C / 2744 mK. 16 C / NAL. NAM. NAN. 12345 / 7O. 0.02 / 2 nmP. AF303 3309A IRENE OB 17MAX FL WIND 87 KT E QUAD 19:36:00Z;

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