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Hurricane Irene - Discussion V


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E MA into SE NH could see some of that...but it will obviously be less than what they see down on the coast. It'll be something we'll just have to follow on Sunday....depending on how much we mix down.

Yeah sounds good. Hoping for 60s and would love to get lucky and see 70.

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That means you're saying Ryan is wrong..We'll see..Messenger says gusts to 60 on the CApe..enjoy

I'm not sure what Ryan's exact words are because you twist them all the time, so I won't comment there....as for the Cape, they should see hurricane force gusts in the typical exposed spots.

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Looking at the 12z suites and allowing for some increase in speed it looks like it will be near NYC/Nassau county around 8 am tomorrow morning. That's time for the AM high tide surge could be very well maximized NYC south shore of LI, NE NJ and Western LI sound from north shore of Queens through the Bronx Westchester up to Fairfield Co.

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What are you thinking for our town? Highest gust maybe 55-60? Not sure well get higher than that, also not sure I want more than that with the trees around here.

Do you have an anemometer at the abode or just use CON obs?

Gut, I think we do not verify the tropical storm warning, highest gust imby 45

that could end up being a very crappy forecast though, I'm planning based on the official of damaging winds and outages in case

edit 2nd q.. I use kcon, I had an anemometer but it was useless at measuring wind, just no good spot in my yard, and I think it's busted now anyway.

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I was just watching Fox News and they were showing live radar from hateras, and the center of Irene made a very sharp turn to the

right, heading for open water. Probably just a wobble and not a trend, but one never knows with these things.

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What does the bold in the following update following from GYX mean? What is different now, with this update, than previous forecast? I thought there was already the potential for severe weather here in Portland, ME area.

"1817Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE IS TO CHANGE ALL HEADLINES TO TROPICAL CYCLONEWARNINGS FOR ALL OF OUR REGION. EACH TRACK OF SYSTEM IS FURTHERWEST WITH EACH RUN...WHICH SHIFTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS TO VT.HOWEVER...BANDS ALREADY FORMING WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND...AND HEADING NORTH. IN COORD W/ DAVE VALLEE...WILLKEEP CURRENT QPF IN OUR GRIDS.WITH SUCH A WESTWARD SHIFT...TOMORROW NOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FORSEVERE WEATHER IF WE ENTER A WARM/TROPICAL SECTOR FOR A VERY BRIEFPERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL BEMONITORING AND ADJUSTING STAFFING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OFQUICK/RAPID SPIN-UPS WITH THE OUTER BANDS."

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What does the bold in the following update following from GYX mean? What is different now, with this update, than previous forecast? I thought there was already the potential for severe weather here in Portland, ME area.

"1817Z UPDATE...LATEST UPDATE IS TO CHANGE ALL HEADLINES TO TROPICAL CYCLONEWARNINGS FOR ALL OF OUR REGION. EACH TRACK OF SYSTEM IS FURTHERWEST WITH EACH RUN...WHICH SHIFTS THE HEAVIEST RAIN AXIS TO VT.HOWEVER...BANDS ALREADY FORMING WELL AHEAD OF SCHEDULE IN SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND...AND HEADING NORTH. IN COORD W/ DAVE VALLEE...WILLKEEP CURRENT QPF IN OUR GRIDS. WITH SUCH A WESTWARD SHIFT...TOMORROW NOW HAS THE POTENTIAL FORSEVERE WEATHER IF WE ENTER A WARM/TROPICAL SECTOR FOR A VERY BRIEFPERIOD DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WILL BEMONITORING AND ADJUSTING STAFFING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OFQUICK/RAPID SPIN-UPS WITH THE OUTER BANDS."

Tornadoes

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He's posted his forecast on here the last few days.

He has 55-70 Interior CT

and gusts to 80 shore

I'll take the under for 70mph where you are. I don't think the chance is zero for 70mph there, but I'd definitely take the under. OTOH you are forecasting a minimum gust there of 70mph. That's pretty different than Ryan's forecast who was forecasting a max of 70 there.

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I was just watching Fox News and they were showing live radar from hateras, and the center of Irene made a very sharp turn to the

right, heading for open water. Probably just a wobble and not a trend, but one never knows with these things.

Roger, Roger

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