mattmfm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Two things to note: 1. On the wind side, this is going a bit more inland over ENC than I was thinking last night. Probably won't help any for SNE. 2. Hatteras is seeing a surge of about 8' right now. Upper reaches of Narragansett Bay look primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not being negative, just disappointed but it looks like I will have to wait another 20 years(days....maybe) for my first hurricane. What are we thinking for a timeline for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Because my grandparents have a house there. Winds on the Cape should be nearly as good anyway presuming the track stays off shore of NJ. The LLJ out of the SW is very impressive over that region later tomorrow afternoon. Excellent. Good luck travelling (esp. on the trip back) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 pbouchardon7 Pete Bouchard With #irene ashore in North Carolina, New England dodges a bullet. No landfalling hurricane here. #7news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 From the 8:00 AM NHC statement... ---- MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 85 MPH...140 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS FORECAST AS IRENE CROSSES EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE AS IT MOVES NEAR OR OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 260 MILES...415 KM. A SUSTAINED WIND OF 59 MPH WITH A GUST TO 84 MPH WAS RECENTLY MEASURED AT CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. Interesting since the storm's down to 85mph and has only just begun to traverse the land of NC. It seems like with each advisory this thing takes a 5mph haircut. It's lost 30mph in the last 24 hours, and we still have 24 hours until landfall anywhere near here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Two things to note: 1. On the wind side, this is going a bit more inland over ENC than I was thinking last night. Probably won't help any for SNE. 2. Hatteras is seeing a surge of about 8' right now. Upper reaches of Narragansett Bay look primed. It wobbled west as some convection fired on the western side a bit more the last couple hours. Either way it will track over the west end of Pamlico Sound and the land that's on the western shore is basically a swamp for dozens of miles. Given the storms large size a little extra friction to tighten the core up before it heads back over the Sound and into the Atlantic probably isn't a huge deal. Agree on surge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Probably before that Ryan, did your station post the same maps (impact-wise) as last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 pbouchardon7 Pete Bouchard With #irene ashore in North Carolina, New England dodges a bullet. No landfalling hurricane here. #7news I'm not sure it's wise to be downplaying this to the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Ryan, did your station post the same maps (impact-wise) as last night? Yeah they're the same this morning. I told Kevin I'd probably shave about 5 mph off them now. Maybe 10. Remember Gloria's max gust in CT was 92 mph at BDR. So 85 would be very significant still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 pbouchardon7 Pete Bouchard With #irene ashore in North Carolina, New England dodges a bullet. No landfalling hurricane here. #7news Tim Kelly sounds similar SurfSkiWxManTim Kelley NECNI will be surprised if Cat 1 Verifies in New England, #HurricaneIrene Drawing in dry air, headed for cooler water/air1 hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not sure it's wise to be downplaying this to the general public. Seriously....the NWS has it as a cat 1 here...doesnt that make it a landfalling hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Seriously....the NWS has it as a cat 1 here...doesnt that make it a landfalling hurricane? Well, it actually has to happen first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Reported wind gust to 115 at the Cedar Island Ferry Terminal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 951mb new dropsonde. Appears to have ticked a bit east in latest fix from NOAA P3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 AS I've had since the beginning..I still like HVN as LF to about 20 miles west of ORh as a cat 1. Winds gusting 55-75..isolated 80 inland..stronger at shore I may be a bit E of where landfall ends up in CT. I picked Clinton, CT yesterday. I think the Long Beach, NY area is in for a rude awakening come tomorrow morning. I think your HVN area in CT is spot on after coming ashore around Islip and it should track west of ORH. Ekster's family out in the Twin Forks are going to get pummeled. Upton should have some pretty goos obs from Irene as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I may be a bit E of where landfall ends up in CT. I picked Clinton, CT yesterday. I think the Long Beach, NY area is in for a rude awakening come tomorrow morning. I think your HVN area in CT is spot on after coming ashore around Islip and it should track west of ORH. Ekster's family out in the Twin Forks are going to get pummeled. Upton should have some pretty goos obs from Irene as well. Yeah I agree. What's left of the core should mean some real gusty winds here. I'm expecting a lot of tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not sure it's wise to be downplaying this to the general public. My thoughts exactly. The difference in sensible weather will be marginal. While the media hype can be annoying, I think it's irresponsible for a big-market met to proclaim that SNE has "dodged a bullet" just because top sustained winds may be 5-10 mph lower than previously forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It will be a cat 1 cane upon LF. Make no mistake about that. It'll stay over the water until LI once it moves off the OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It will be a cat 1 cane upon LF. Make no mistake about that. It'll stay over the water until LI once it moves off the OBX Either way does it make a difference if it's 70mph or 75 mph sustained? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 MRH getting into the "eye" now. METAR KMRH 271056Z AUTO 06030G52KT 1SM +RA BR OVC007 26/26 A2830 RMK AO2 PK WND 06062/1014 PRESFR SLP583 P0045 T02610256 = METAR KMRH 271204Z AUTO 36010G23KT 3SM -RA BR OVC005 27/26 A2814 RMK AO2 P0000 $ = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm not sure it's wise to be downplaying this to the general public. +1. Dumb twit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Thankfully this storm is looking less and less impressive. Even so, as Ryan points out, excessive rains here in the Berkshires will be a serious situation. That coupled with what will undoubtedly be very strong winds is a recipe for an extended period of power loss. The streams and river here are already quite high especially for the time of year. The silver lining in this is that August will certainly go down as a cool, wet month here, AIT back in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Either way does it make a difference if it's 70mph or 75 mph sustained? No, not really, but I like the sound of hurricane versus tropical storm...just a matter of preference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 951mb new dropsonde. Appears to have ticked a bit east in latest fix from NOAA P3. this is amazing...CAT 1. on the old SS scale...this pressure would correspond to a CAT 3!! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Thankfully this storm is looking less and less impressive. Even so, as Ryan points out, excessive rains here in the Berkshires will be a serious situation. That coupled with what will undoubtedly be very strong winds is a recipe for an extended period of power loss. The streams and river here are already quite high especially for the time of year. The silver lining in this is that August will certainly go down as a cool, wet month here, AIT back in May. MRG and Kevin with some of the more reasonable posts this morning. What's going on?!??!!? lol Yeah I agree worried about flooding in western NE for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 this is amazing...CAT 1. on the old SS scale...this pressure would correspond to a CAT 3!! LOL. Part of the reason people think Gloria was a lot stronger than it was is because in 1985 the NHC would never have Irene as a cat 1 with that central pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It will be a cat 1 cane upon LF. Make no mistake about that. It'll stay over the water until LI once it moves off the OBX It may be categorized as a Cat 1 but I'm betting nobody on LI sees sustained hurricane force at official reporting stations. That's just my opinion and it may well be wrong. (picked LI as I feel they were most likely to see the strongest winds...also don't think it happens over here either) I do think unlike a lot of storms we will see persistent sustained strong TS winds in the 50-65 range over a good area with higher gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Thankfully this storm is looking less and less impressive. Even so, as Ryan points out, excessive rains here in the Berkshires will be a serious situation. That coupled with what will undoubtedly be very strong winds is a recipe for an extended period of power loss. The streams and river here are already quite high especially for the time of year. The silver lining in this is that August will certainly go down as a cool, wet month here, AIT back in May. Again...warm & wet. Even Mt Wash is +1.7 so far. But back to Irene... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 this is amazing...CAT 1. on the old SS scale...this pressure would correspond to a CAT 3!! LOL. Phil that's the staggering part of this. Unbelievable to me that it's around 950 and looked so poor coming into NC over warm water. Astounding really, be an amazing post mortem and probably something 10 or 15 years from now that's used as a case history when they better understand what causes some systems to not develop as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 It may be categorized as a Cat 1 but I'm betting nobody on LI sees sustained hurricane force at official reporting stations. That's just my opinion and it may well be wrong. (picked LI as I feel they were most likely to see the strongest winds...also don't think it happens over here either) I do think unlike a lot of storms we will see persistent sustained strong TS winds in the 50-65 range over a good area with higher gusts. does it matter though? i'm not sure i see the point in this. does it prove something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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