Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,586
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Hurricane Irene - Discussion V


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

I'm starting to think rainfall east of the center in New England is going to be heavier than people think... seems the rain was written off (or maybe just focusing on wind) but some of the meso-scale models we use in the winter (which probably suck for TCs) are really cranking out the rain over all of SNE with 4"+ amounts except the Cape. They seem to be keying on that developing jet streak across SNE as the storm approaches and passes.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I'm starting to think rainfall east of the center in New England is going to be heavier than people think... seems the rain was written off (or maybe just focusing on wind) but some of the meso-scale models we use in the winter (which probably suck for TCs) are really cranking out the rain over all of SNE with 4"+ amounts except the Cape. They seem to be keying on that developing jet streak across SNE as the storm approaches and passes.

links? I really hope you're right.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That looks more due NE..like it will head back over the water NC/VA border

Kev maybe...tough to tell if it's an eye wobble as it came back over land as it rotates or a turning north. My eye says it's starting to run a little more N than it was earlier, but next few frames will tell the tale. Maybe crossing the VA border just west of the water.bay on the border and then continuing off just east of Norfolk I'm guessing around Fort Story just north of VA Beach.

EDIT: should add if my eyes are deceiving me and that's just an eye rotation maybe it exits around the th in Elizabeth City on the noaa radar.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

links? I really hope you're right.

Just go to the PSU E-Wall site and start clicking around... the good ol' weenie models like the old ETA, RSM, CMC Regional, etc all have 4"+ over most of New England (northern and southern).

However I think the wetter ones hold merit given that pretty much most of SNE will be in the left front entrance region of that upper level jet max moving up the coast. The upper level divergence is definitely there just east of the track... you can see it on the H3-H5 levels.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Pressure is down 947... Holy shi t..that's like a cat 3 pressure wise

But it's not, Kevin. You can say it is, but the reality is that Irene's gradient is spread out all over hell's creation here - huge. That means that it won't reflect the wind of a typical Category 3 - since this storm is about 1.5 times the size of a typical hurricane, it makes sense that this is an upper Category 1 right now.

The reason a 947mb low pressure is impressive in a typical Category 3 hurricane is because the steepness of the gradient

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...