nzucker Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Last night was probably the worst conditions I've ever experienced. The leaf factor is huge and then the rains were sick combined with. But if I had to guess I'd probably say the march noreaster had equal strength winds at its peak, MAYBE even greater, i cant say for sure though. 70-75 mph wind gusts were littered around my area closeby in 2010. I guess getting into that first band of +RA mixed down a lot of higher wind gusts convectively. Those who experienced that first band reported such awful conditions; it missed us, and then the storm was basically over for Westchester. I went for a drive down to the Hudson River at 4am and was not a bit concerned about being out on the roads...it was just akin to taking a drive on a rainy night with some breezes. Gusts never reached above 50mph here, although we did record over 6" of rain which caused localized flooding of the Saw Mill River and other low-lying areas, ensuring that some of Westchester's principal arteries will remain closed for at least another 24 hours. However, the winds were only about half of the forecast (HPN got up to 48mph whereas NWS had gusts of 80mph possible), and the rain was about 60% of the HPC forecast, which originally had 13.5" in NYC but then reduced to 11" with 8-10" in surrounding suburbs...HPN had about 6.5", White Plains proper had a little over 5", I believe. Compared to March 2010, which had 60-70mph gusts in Westchester, Irene was a tame event with most gusts in the 40s, not even close to hurricane force. Also, a 61mph gust was measured in Hastings NY, about 1 mile from my house, in the Boxing Day blizzard....I think we were in the 65-70mph range given the elevation and exposure to the north here. My house is on a huge hill with a steep drop to the NW down to the Hudson River, and conditions were absolutely awful the night of 12/26 with the winds in the 65-70mph range, temperatures dropping to the mid-teens, and heavy snow. Irene was also much less windy than Boxing Day for Westchester. Also, it depends a lot upon one's personal background as to how impressive a storm is. I lived in Southern Chile on the South Pacific during the austral winter in a town that averaged 100" rainfall/year...I saw tons of storms that dropped 5-10" rain with 40-50mph winds, hail, lightning, and power outages as a result. Those storms made me uninterested in large rainfall events unless they are really extreme, as it was always a big rainstorm down there in the winter. Also, I lived in Montana last summer, and you typically get 40-50mph wind gusts with cold fronts, even in summer. Downsloping winds off the prairies can exceed 70mph, and I was in Cut Bank for one major downsloping event, so I experienced the vicious downsloping SW winds coming off the High Rockies. To me, having 40mph winds isn't anything special, even though I recognize that it can be damaging in the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 The storm was a bust in Dobbs Ferry guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 I guess getting into that first band of +RA mixed down a lot of higher wind gusts convectively. Those who experienced that first band reported such awful conditions; it missed us, and then the storm was basically over for Westchester. I went for a drive down to the Hudson River at 4am and was not a bit concerned about being out on the roads...it was just akin to taking a drive on a rainy night with some breezes. Gusts never reached above 50mph here, although we did record over 6" of rain which caused localized flooding of the Saw Mill River and other low-lying areas, ensuring that some of Westchester's principal arteries will remain closed for at least another 24 hours. However, the winds were only about half of the forecast (HPN got up to 48mph whereas NWS had gusts of 80mph possible), and the rain was about 60% of the HPC forecast, which originally had 13.5" in NYC but then reduced to 11" with 8-10" in surrounding suburbs...HPN had about 6.5", White Plains proper had a little over 5", I believe. Compared to March 2010, which had 60-70mph gusts in Westchester, Irene was a tame event with most gusts in the 40s, not even close to hurricane force. Also, a 61mph gust was measured in Hastings NY, about 1 mile from my house, in the Boxing Day blizzard....I think we were in the 65-70mph range given the elevation and exposure to the north here. My house is on a huge hill with a steep drop to the NW down to the Hudson River, and conditions were absolutely awful the night of 12/26 with the winds in the 65-70mph range, temperatures dropping to the mid-teens, and heavy snow. Irene was also much less windy than Boxing Day for Westchester. Also, it depends a lot upon one's personal background as to how impressive a storm is. I lived in Southern Chile on the South Pacific during the austral winter in a town that averaged 100" rainfall/year...I saw tons of storms that dropped 5-10" rain with 40-50mph winds, hail, lightning, and power outages as a result. Those storms made me uninterested in large rainfall events unless they are really extreme, as it was always a big rainstorm down there in the winter. Also, I lived in Montana last summer, and you typically get 40-50mph wind gusts with cold fronts, even in summer. Downsloping winds off the prairies can exceed 70mph, and I was in Cut Bank for one major downsloping event, so I experienced the vicious downsloping SW winds coming off the High Rockies. To me, having 40mph winds isn't anything special, even though I recognize that it can be damaging in the Northeast. WE GET IT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 LIPA is screwed. I just came back from checking on my parents in Muttontown. WOW! Brookville Road has poles snapped wires on the road and trees hanging from wires. I had to drive under things I would never but was worried about my family. There is no power on Northern Blvd once you go East of E Shore Road. The only 2 spots that have power are Rallye Motors and Greenvale shopping center. The national guard should be out as many intersections have no TSLs working and no police directing traffic. Jericho Tpke by Quadrangle is completely out as well and southbound 106/107 exit is closed. Trees down on 106 on the right lane with just barriers to alert you, yet it's pitch black. They have a whole house generator but verizon and cablevision lines are torn apart, so no cable tv/internet or phone. Had to power up the Directv switch off the generator panel so they have tv to watch. I say some parts won't see power for a week, if not longer, due to the major infrastructure damage. According to their site, all 1,348 homes in Muttontown are out...not a surprise given all the trees there and when you're talking only 1,348 homes its entirely possible one tree going down will take them all out. Normally an easy repair but as you said when you cannot even get there to fix it you have problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Is the NWS going to survey the tornado warning areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Alot of flooding and bridge damage up this way. There are currently over 300 roads closed here in Orange county. I received 9.2 inches IMBY. Here is another issue further north in Schoharie county NY. They are evacuating all towns for a possable breach in the Giloba dam. http://www.511ny.org/traffic.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 According to their site, all 1,348 homes in Muttontown are out...not a surprise given all the trees there and when you're talking only 1,348 homes its entirely possible one tree going down will take them all out. Normally an easy repair but as you said when you cannot even get there to fix it you have problems. Until you see Manhasset completely out, Roslyn out, Flower Hill and Brookville out along Northern Blvd. The quadrangles out in Jericho too. One tree, LOL. More like multiple trees. Saw at least 15-20 trees down. One tree across from the Old Brookville PD is hanging over Northern Blvd yet traffic is allowed under it. Hope it doesn't fall. Really bad on the N Shore of LI past Great Neck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Until you see Manhasset completely out, Roslyn out, Flower Hill and Brookville out along Northern Blvd. The quadrangles out in Jericho too. One tree, LOL. More like multiple trees. Saw at least 15-20 trees down. One tree across from the Old Brookville PD is hanging over Northern Blvd yet traffic is allowed under it. Hope it doesn't fall. Really bad on the N Shore of LI past Great Neck. My dad said its the most outages he has seen in Nassau County since the 1977 or 78 ice storm, the 1994 ice storm took out a decent portion of Nassau as did Gloria, especially the SE part but I don't think Gloria had anywhere close to this many outages in Nassau County, particularly not in the towns you mentioned above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Those who were disappointed were probably expecting this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Last night was probably the worst conditions I've ever experienced. The leaf factor is huge and then the rains were sick combined with. But if I had to guess I'd probably say the march noreaster had equal strength winds at its peak, MAYBE even greater, i cant say for sure though. 70-75 mph wind gusts were littered around my area closeby in 2010. Did you actually measure 60-70mph winds or is that just an estimate? My parents in Colts Neck say we recorded a high gust of 45mph, and my station is out in the open. There were some small branches down and power was never lost, so really not a big deal for most of Colts Neck. But then again I guess it may be the worst we've experienced given the last hurricane affecting our area was Gloria in 1985 (which neither of us were alive for). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Did you actually measure 60-70mph winds or is that just an estimate? My parents in Colts Neck say we recorded a high gust of 45mph, and my station is out in the open. There were some small branches down and power was never lost, so really not a big deal for most of Colts Neck. But then again I guess it may be the worst we've experienced given the last hurricane affecting our area was Gloria in 1985 (which neither of us were alive for). No its an estimate, but I know what a 60 mph gust is. We had several within that range in northern Monmouth county. Very odd that you only had 45 mph gusts in colts neck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Note how these arent even uprooted trees which could have happened with only 45 mph winds and the wet soil, but rather shaved off the top from the winds (By the way I apologize for posting these here and not in the picture thread) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Orange County is a mess right now. A majority of the major roads are completely closed and a majority of the bridges in the eastern portion of the county are either damaged or completely washed out. Moodna Creek has pretty much isolated the town of Cornwall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 A person cannot objectively determine a storm's magnitude by only taking into account the conditions it produced in the town in which they are located. You can do that when you are asked (or choose to tell) how the storm impacted you or the conditons you witnessed...but it is a storm's impact over the entire area it influences that determines where it ranks in the history books.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Did you actually measure 60-70mph winds or is that just an estimate? My parents in Colts Neck say we recorded a high gust of 45mph, and my station is out in the open. There were some small branches down and power was never lost, so really not a big deal for most of Colts Neck. But then again I guess it may be the worst we've experienced given the last hurricane affecting our area was Gloria in 1985 (which neither of us were alive for). No its an estimate, but I know what a 60 mph gust is. We had several within that range in northern Monmouth county. Very odd that you only had 45 mph gusts in colts neck How high above ground is your wind sensor, Iso? Those definitely look like 60+ mph gusts in the pictures, though they may have been convectively induced and thus, not widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Also, I lived in Montana last summer, and you typically get 40-50mph wind gusts with cold fronts, even in summer. Downsloping winds off the prairies can exceed 70mph, and I was in Cut Bank for one major downsloping event, so I experienced the vicious downsloping SW winds coming off the High Rockies. To me, having 40mph winds isn't anything special, even though I recognize that it can be damaging in the Northeast. The funny thing is, for me, I've learned that winds don't mean anything if they aren't going to cause damage. Out here and in Montana, there's hardly anything to blow down. So who CARES if it gusts to 60 or 70 mph? It doesn't mean anything if it doesn't leave a mark... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 How high above ground is your wind sensor, Iso? Those definitely look like 60+ mph gusts in the pictures, though they may have been convectively induced and thus, not widespread. Very much so, Ray. In fact, while there was rather widespread tree damage in the region I drove around, my neighborhood seemed to have it a little worse. I was wondering this morning if perhaps one of those EF0 spinups might have went through late last night..I didn't have power to access radar (not that it mattered with kdix down probably) so I wouldnt know if we were under a warning at some point. Last I had seen on tv before we lost power was sw monmouth/mercer under a tornado warning...all of this damage occurred after round 1 and the midnight lull we had..so between 2am-7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 To verify a hurricane you need sustained winds of 74mph+, no one came close. Not on land, but you wouldn't expect it to. Typical land-friction reduction means max sustained would likely go no higher than 55 mph for a 'cane rated 75 mph. 74 mph sustained only counts over open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Not on land, but you wouldn't expect it to. Typical land-friction reduction means max sustained would likely go no higher than 55 mph for a 'cane rated 75 mph. 74 mph sustained only counts over open water. So the inland hurricane warning threshold is really for gusts of 74+? Makes more sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 So the inland hurricane warning threshold is really for gusts of 74+? Makes more sense. I don't know for sure how they will verify that, but that would make the most sense to me. Its just impossible to get the same kind of sustained winds inland that you do over the open ocean, and that's how they estimate storm strength: wind over open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 I don't know for sure how they will verify that, but that would make the most sense to me. Its just impossible to get the same kind of sustained winds inland that you do over the open ocean, and that's how they estimate storm strength: wind over open water. Ray, while you are probably right in that statement, isn't the reanalysis being done on historical storms using LAND data to re-estimate category for some of the past greats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Ray, while you are probably right in that statement, isn't the reanalysis being done on historical storms using LAND data to re-estimate category for some of the past greats? I couldn't speak to that point, though with a reverse adjustment you can probably get the result you expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 How high above ground is your wind sensor, Iso? Those definitely look like 60+ mph gusts in the pictures, though they may have been convectively induced and thus, not widespread. Yeah NJwinter that damage definitely looks like 60mph or greater gusts. Ray - My sensor is 11' AGL which I know isn't the normal meteorological height (33'). But how much would wind speed be reduced given the sensor is in a pretty open area? I'd think maybe 3-5mph at best. As you noted there certainly were a lot of convective induced stronger gusts within the storm, which could have easily added 10mph locally.The lesser damage in my local area seems to confirm the lower gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 As far as the far reaching effects, Irene takes the cake. It was a massive storm which produced widespread damage from NC to Maine. Some of the tree distruction pics are incredible for not only LI but all the way into interior NY and New England. Widspread power outages all accross the Adriondacks and the Green / White Mountains. Also the surge was pretty remarkable considering it strected on for thousands of miles of shoreline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 As far as the far reaching effects, Irene takes the cake. It was a massive storm which produced widespread damage from NC to Maine. Some of the tree distruction pics are incredible for not only LI but all the way into interior NY and New England. Widspread power outages all accross the Adriondacks and the Green / White Mountains. Also the surge was pretty remarkable considering it strected on for thousands of miles of shoreline. agreed. what is astounding to me is that 368,000 people are without power on LI still...24 hours later...that is pretty insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 The band that moved through at 1030 pm did the most damage and produced the most tor warnings... I wad four blocks inland at point beach and when whatever blew though hit, it knocked out trees...shredded the tops off of some and knocked others down...and blew up 3-4 transformers... That band made its way north into li... I am convinced am ef Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 An ef0 hit because it was so quick and unlike the gusts of the rest of the storm. Also had a 10 second roar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 An ef0 hit because it was so quick and unlike the gusts of the rest of the storm. Also had a 10 second roar. yea that band moved north and produced pretty good damage a few blocks from me in western suffolk...we were under a tornado warning around 330 am...and that damage was very intense and localized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Although Irene was a weaker storm than Gloria as it passed through our area,here on the South Shore the tide levels were close with the two storms.Gloria was packing an 8.5 foot storm surge and happened to hit closer to the time of low tide.Irene came in on an astronomically high tide and had a surge around 4.5 -4.8 feet. If Gloria had hit at high tide,the tide levels would have been about 3-4 feet higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SVT450R Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Wind was wild here never seen winds like that before uprooted an oak tree in the yard was surprised that we didn't loose power only once for 2min. Rain total finished with 6.46'' bringing month total to 16.33'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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