SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Zoomed in storm vista maps center goes right up jersey coast into nyc then over sw CT on gfs. Wow. I'll be out taking pictures here at that time and will post as long as I still have power or will post later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Buses of cops all over Brooklyn, buses just stoped all over cops everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDemon Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Look at the rain bands already filling Southern Jersey. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 pouring here in Pompton Plains, NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I dont know how accurate wind maps are, but the wundermap wind maps dont even show tropical force sustained winds for anyone except Southern Jersey and for Suffolk County. This is for the GFS. 12z NAM text soundings show JFK with sustained tropical force winds of 35-40knots from 3am to about 8pm tomorrow. 45-50 knots for the Hamptons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Overcast here in the eastern JFK vicinity, reminds me of Earl. It feels like a jungle. I hope we get high winds, that's the main thing I was looking forward too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I dont know how accurate wind maps are, but the wundermap wind maps dont even show tropical force sustained winds for anyone except Southern Jersey and for Suffolk County. 12z NAM text soundings show JFK with sustained tropical force winds of 35-40knots from 6am to about noon tomorrow. 50-60 knots for the Hamptons. Biggest story will be the rain and surge by far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Dr. Knabb from TWC is still calling for a Cat 1 to hit the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Richmond is getting 51 mph gusts at the moment, well n&w of the center Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Biggest story will be the rain and surge by far. 35-40 knot SUSTAINED winds for 12 hours is nothing to sneeze at. Gusts would be over 50 knots. NAM has these winds for 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Biggest story will be the rain and surge by far. yup, but with the center coming due north right into the city, everyone on the coast should be getting TS sustained with inland areas seeing gusts up to 60 or more i would think. Atleast thats what my forecast says. Stronger gusts will work down in heavier bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 35-40 knot SUSTAINED winds for 12 hours is nothing to sneeze at. Guts would be over 50 knots. NAM has these winds for 12 hours. are those maps accurate?..area's up the mid atlantic are already getting tropical storm force winds ..Do these maps show it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 35-40 knot SUSTAINED winds for 12 hours is nothing to sneeze at. Gusts would be over 50 knots. NAM has these winds for 12 hours. I'm not sure i'd hug the NAM when current OBS have this at 85-90 mph sustained winds by the eye wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 35-40 knot SUSTAINED winds for 12 hours is nothing to sneeze at. Gusts would be over 50 knots. NAM has these winds for 12 hours. Yeah..there would still be gusts at or near hurricane force. I'm not worried about that...there will be trees down and power outages to say the least given the moisture content already in the soil. What I am worried about are the tides, the flooding, and the storm surge timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 35-40 knot SUSTAINED winds for 12 hours is nothing to sneeze at. Gusts would be over 50 knots. NAM has these winds for 12 hours. Agree, a major problem with this storm is long duration. Wind speed itself won't be extraordinary for most of us, probably 30mph sustained with gusts to 50-60mph inland, and tropical storm force sustained on the beaches with gusts to 75-80mph. Those winds continuing over a 6-12 hr period coupled with very wet ground via 6"+ of rain, will make for a dicey situation wrt downed trees/power lines. Already pouring here in Villanova PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 12z SPC WRF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 How is the tornado threat for anywhere NE of the center since there are tornado watches down to south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 12z SPC WRF... Wow! This storm is gonna rip long island new one by tonight after 9 p.m. winds are gonna be in excess of 80mph tommorow here in the higher gusts. This storm is absolutely huge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wow! This storm is gonna rip long island new one by tonight after 9 p.m. winds are gonna be in excess of 80mph tommorow here in the higher gusts. This storm is absolutely huge! don't really understand that map..is that what it is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Slight risk now for the entire metro and east ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST... ..MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST LATEST NHC FORECASTS INDICATE IRENE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NNEWD ACROSS EXTREME ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE DELMARVA AND NEW JERSEY COASTS TONIGHT. DENSE OVERCAST WITHIN THE LARGE CIRCULATION WILL LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTER...BUT SURFACE DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J PER KG/ SUPPORTIVE OF OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND ADJACENT INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE BANDS NORTH OF THE CENTER OF IRENE HAVE CONTAINED EMBEDDED SMALL SUPERCELLS THIS MORNING MOVING ONSHORE FROM THE TIDEWATER NORTHWARD INTO ERN MD. THESE HAVE TENDED TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND WHERE INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL SHEAR/STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IN ADVANCE OF IRENE WILL SUPPORT A FEW SMALL SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS NORTH OF THE CENTER WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO OCCUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 don't really understand that map..is that what it is showing? The first map is 1 hour rainfall...the second map is storm total rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Everyone is saying long island with wind isn't it gonna just be bad in the metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 12z Ukie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 SPC WRF looks to go right through Queens. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/today_1h_f24.gif http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/cent4km/conus/12/today_1h_f27.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deathstar9 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What kind of winds can be expected for 10+ stories up in manhattan? Is there an accurate conversion, say if surface is sustained at 50? Will be interesting to see if there is heavy window damage, another factor in that would be the amount of roof top gravel/debris on the tall buildings. Also does wind tunnel effect tend to increase winds in the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 SPC WRF looks to go right through Queens. http://www.emc.ncep....oday_1h_f24.gif http://www.emc.ncep....oday_1h_f27.gif 90 mph winds with 110 mph gusts in Cedar Island, NC! Knabb is saying the storm is going to maintain intensity because of its large circulation, with a lot of it over water and also friction with land on the left side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Overcast here in the eastern JFK vicinity, reminds me of Earl. It feels like a jungle. I hope we get high winds, that's the main thing I was looking forward too. I hope we don't because theres like 10 large trees on our property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like east Brooklyn/rockaways area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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