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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part III


NickD2011

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I dont know how accurate wind maps are, but the wundermap wind maps dont even show tropical force sustained winds for anyone except Southern Jersey and for Suffolk County. This is for the GFS.

12z NAM text soundings show JFK with sustained tropical force winds of 35-40knots from 3am to about 8pm tomorrow.

45-50 knots for the Hamptons.

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I dont know how accurate wind maps are, but the wundermap wind maps dont even show tropical force sustained winds for anyone except Southern Jersey and for Suffolk County.

12z NAM text soundings show JFK with sustained tropical force winds of 35-40knots from 6am to about noon tomorrow.

50-60 knots for the Hamptons.

Biggest story will be the rain and surge by far.

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Biggest story will be the rain and surge by far.

yup, but with the center coming due north right into the city, everyone on the coast should be getting TS sustained with inland areas seeing gusts up to 60 or more i would think. Atleast thats what my forecast says. Stronger gusts will work down in heavier bands.

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35-40 knot SUSTAINED winds for 12 hours is nothing to sneeze at. Gusts would be over 50 knots.

NAM has these winds for 12 hours.

Yeah..there would still be gusts at or near hurricane force. I'm not worried about that...there will be trees down and power outages to say the least given the moisture content already in the soil. What I am worried about are the tides, the flooding, and the storm surge timing.

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35-40 knot SUSTAINED winds for 12 hours is nothing to sneeze at. Gusts would be over 50 knots.

NAM has these winds for 12 hours.

Agree, a major problem with this storm is long duration. Wind speed itself won't be extraordinary for most of us, probably 30mph sustained with gusts to 50-60mph inland, and tropical storm force sustained on the beaches with gusts to 75-80mph. Those winds continuing over a 6-12 hr period coupled with very wet ground via 6"+ of rain, will make for a dicey situation wrt downed trees/power lines.

Already pouring here in Villanova PA.

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Slight risk now for the entire metro and east

day1.gif

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC

COAST...

..MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST

LATEST NHC FORECASTS INDICATE IRENE WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NNEWD

ACROSS EXTREME ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON AND ALONG THE DELMARVA AND NEW

JERSEY COASTS TONIGHT. DENSE OVERCAST WITHIN THE LARGE CIRCULATION

WILL LIMIT DIABATIC HEATING DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTER...BUT SURFACE

DEW POINTS IN THE LOW/MID 70S WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MARGINAL

INSTABILITY /MLCAPE GENERALLY AOB 500 J PER KG/ SUPPORTIVE OF

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND

ADJACENT INLAND AREAS. CONVECTIVE BANDS NORTH OF THE CENTER OF

IRENE HAVE CONTAINED EMBEDDED SMALL SUPERCELLS THIS MORNING MOVING

ONSHORE FROM THE TIDEWATER NORTHWARD INTO ERN MD. THESE HAVE TENDED

TO WEAKEN AFTER MOVING INLAND WHERE INSTABILITY DECREASES WITH

DISTANCE FROM THE COAST. VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL VERTICAL

SHEAR/STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY IN ADVANCE OF IRENE WILL SUPPORT A FEW

SMALL SUPERCELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS NORTH OF THE CENTER

WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES TO OCCUR.

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What kind of winds can be expected for 10+ stories up in manhattan? Is there an accurate conversion, say if surface is sustained at 50? Will be interesting to see if there is heavy window damage, another factor in that would be the amount of roof top gravel/debris on the tall buildings.

Also does wind tunnel effect tend to increase winds in the city?

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