Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Would think if the storm hugs the coast then the jackpot amounts could be up in NW NJ through the hudson valley rather than closer to the city but will be hard to pinpoint who gets 5" as opposed to 10-12" or more Excessive rainfall outlook, looks like overall they lowered QPF just a tad, these systems are capable of dropping close to 20" under the right circumstances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 to clarify, I mean in the Danbury metro area. We flood during minor/moderate rain storms, the flooding we get over the next 24-30 hours could be unlike anything witnessed in generations...and this pre-storm rainfall is only adding insult to injury. Not to make light of the winds which will probably take down large tree limbs and some trees, but I think the main problem for most of us in the northeast with this storm is going to be flooding from the heavy rain. Of course, those near the shore will have coastal flooding, but for most of us, the incredible rain amounts (7.00"-15.00") may be the primary culprit at this point especially if she continues to gradually weaken, which seems likely. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Not to make light of the winds which will probably take down large tree limbs and some trees, but I think the main problem for most of us in the northeast with this storm is going to be flooding from the heavy rain. Of course, those near the shore will have coastal flooding, but for most of us, the incredible rain amounts (7.00"-15.00") may be the primary culprit at this point especially if she continues to gradually weaken, which seems likely. WX/PT I agree and with most big storms like this the hype of wind damage usually under performs but the flooding from surge and copious rains under projected. Still think the winds damage will be enhanced by the very wet grounds of late. Looking like a 4 - 8 ft surge into the harbor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 New tornado watch up through south Jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XtremeWx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 11am advisory, still has it as a hurricane when it gets to the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 12z Nam's track is really awful. A lot of rain and wind if it verifies. It also comes through in the morning, which will be the worst time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 looks like NC is getting its ass kicked. From the main board: Either we just had a tornado or we had a 90-100 MPH gust...... watched half a dozen trees fall around my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like most of us will be pulling all nighters as the worst seems to be after midnight right through the morning hours 11am advisory, still has it as a hurricane when it gets to the NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wow At 7-8am tomorrow it's basically right on Toms River as a probably borderline cat 1. The city on east is in the right front quadrant and would receive the brunt of whatever Irene has left, right at high tide. NHC pretty much has Irene at Sandy Hook by then. I can't imagine much worse timing for flooding. Wow is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I agree and with most big storms like this the hype of wind damage usually under performs but the flooding from surge and copious rains under projected. Still think the winds damage will be enhanced by the very wet grounds of late. Looking like a 4 - 8 ft surge into the harbor. I doubt the winds will be more than maybe enough to blow a bunch of shingles away/some siding, so structural damage from other than falling trees isn't the biggest concern here. The 3/13/10 storm knocked some siding and gutters off homes and was enough to take off some shingles-and that was about 75 mph in some gusts. The water by far will be the big story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 looks like its a deluge near danbury. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?product=N0R&rid=OKX&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 11am advisory, still has it as a hurricane when it gets to the NYC area. Track shifted slightly to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 11 am advisory. 11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 27 Location: 35.2°N 76.4°W Max sustained: 85 mph Moving: NNE at 15 mph Min pressure: 952 mb Public Advisory #29 1100 AM EDT Aviso Publico último boletín Forecast/ Advisory #29 1500 UTC Forecast Discussion #29 1100 AM EDT Wind Speed Probabilities #29 1500 UTC NWS Local Statements US Watch/ Warning 1100 AM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Anybody with Directv channel 259 is the Hurricane Irene info channel and they are showing live feeds from one of the Eastern NC stations looks like NC is getting its ass kicked. From the main board: Either we just had a tornado or we had a 90-100 MPH gust...... watched half a dozen trees fall around my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tropical deluge here now in Astoria. Winds light. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 cant believe how low the pressure is. still at 952... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I doubt the winds will be more than maybe enough to blow a bunch of shingles away/some siding, so structural damage from other than falling trees isn't the biggest concern here. The 3/13/10 storm knocked some siding and gutters off homes and was enough to take off some shingles-and that was about 75 mph in some gusts. The water by far will be the big story. That was my point but dont under estimate tree and power damage from winds due to the soaked ground. Irene will still pack tropical storm or minimm hurricane gusts especially rfom the GSP east into NYC, LI and S-NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 cant believe how low the pressure is. still at 952... I thought a 952 low is a Cat 2 hurrricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Incredible imagery this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Has Irene slowed down? She looks like she's crawling through NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I thought a 952 low is a Cat 2 hurrricane. irene is the exception ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Incredible imagery this morning Yes it is John. She is a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Why does irene look so much better organized now, then at anypoint in the last two days over warm water? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Has Irene slowed down? She looks like she's crawling through NC. irene has sped up. now moving at NNE at 15. Tornado warning up for VA beach... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Incredible imagery this morning Looking at how relatively healthy the hurricane has become over landfall id def see this storm hitting us a low end cat 1 storm. This thing is gonna get out on water again too so I think its gonna hold a lot of its steam. Winds on long island tonight through tommorow afternoon are gonna gust to 85-90 mph for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Virginia Beach getting slammed..guy on the TWC being blown all over the place..looks like hurricane gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Has KPHL's radar been down all morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 people from the south (Florida..etc) and north (nyc etc)..have a battle between them on twitter..saying Cat 1 hurricane is a drizzle.. to stop the panic .. like really? are we comparing a Cat 1 on Florida to one on NYC..its not the same. but I guess its normal..I remember one time when Orlando,FL had snow showers ..and they were like the world was ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Has Irene slowed down? She looks like she's crawling through NC. Modeled to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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