A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 One thing now being missed a bit with all the winds and rain being observed is it appears the center is definitely going to track along the western edge of the guidance envelope. That could be a result of it undergoing an extratropical transformation a bit earlier, a true hurricane would have a tendency to go more right which is why I had pounded that idea for so many days, like NHC I thought this wouldn't transform til over NE, even with it weakening I thought it would maintain more of a warm core nature. What about the 1903 hurricane that smacked ACY, SG? It bent back NW in a sharp left turn. BTW I now have sustained TS winds now-- 40 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 If a true hurricane bends eastward then 1938 was not a true hurricane-- it went due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 What about the 1903 hurricane that smacked ACY, SG? It bent back NW in a sharp left turn. BTW I now have sustained TS winds now-- 40 mph I saw a graphic online this week that showed a different viewed track of that system, more classic of what many east coast hurricanes which came up this way did. Its hard to say in 1903 how accurate they could pin down what the track was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 What street? Tree fell on my corner took out power that won't be fixed for a while 18,000 people out in NYC area see ya guys be safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Have returned from my dryslot drive and wow, the flash flooding is amazing, to the likes of which I've never seen before in my area- Freehold NJ. I could only drive a 2 mi stretch of of US9 as police have it closed off due to flooding and downed trees etc. There are houses taking in water on south street and it looks as if most of Howell twp had no power. Just crazy outthere, trees and limbs down all over the place. Nuts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 If a true hurricane bends eastward then 1938 was not a true hurricane-- it went due north. Yup. That was an icepussy storm just like this one. They have to curve out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthNJwx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Just as I was beginning to wonder if Irene existed, a band came through here with rainfall rates near 3"/hr and a wind gust of 26 from the east. I'm in Oakland, NJ - about 25 miles NNW of the city. Still looking for the obs to our south to improve, but it's cool to see these bands packing a punch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 The SPC WRF has extremely heavy rainfall and high winds as the center of the storm moves just off the NJ coast at 10z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Oh so this isn't a true hurricane? Funny, it's catagorized as a hurricane. And judging from what we are seeing out of S. Jersey, it's almost like a real hurricane. But hey, I'll tell my friends there not to worry since this isn't a true hurricane. I like the tropiclique, but I remember them coming down on OEM, who is, granted, a dick, about his talk about Hazel and Washington, DC. Sure, Irene will be hybrid when it hits New York, but if you get or almost get hurricane winds in gusts, storm surge, and flooding rains, who da funk cares if it is still purely warm core. I'll bet 1938 wasn't purely tropical. Sensible weather, if the ground truth is a strong TS or a hurricane, then its a strong TS or hurricane, even if ET transition is well underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Oh so this isn't a true hurricane? Funny, it's catagorized as a hurricane. And judging from what we are seeing out of S. Jersey, it's almost like a real hurricane. But hey, I'll tell my friends there not to worry since this isn't a true hurricane. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 pressure jumped up to 958mb on the latest advisory, but makes sense given METARs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennyForYourThoughts Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I know you guys have your hands full, but I thought you might like to see this. 000 URNT12 KNHC 280531 VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL092011 A. 28/05:12:20Z B. 37 deg 58 min N 075 deg 03 min W C. 700 mb 2708 m D. 49 kt E. 040 deg 15 nm F. 138 deg 53 kt G. 040 deg 31 nm H. EXTRAP 957 mb I. 10 C / 3049 m J. 13 C / 3038 m K. 13 C / NA L. NA M. NA N. 1345 / 7 O. 0.02 / 1 nm P. AF304 3409A IRENE OB 31 MAX FL WIND 94 KT E QUAD 03:57:40Z MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 56 KT S QUAD 05:24:30Z SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 People get ready theirs a train a coming actually every time i doze off a gust wakes me up.whitestone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Outside truly sounds like the screaming in the beginning of "Welcome to the Jungle" (Guns N Roses). I'm now convinced that weatherbug station must be experiencing some issues, there's no way we only gusted to 41. Probably blew off since it got mighty windy after that 41 mph gust was recorded lol. SE Queens, heading into that dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 WOW!! I am in Ossining, NY, I just went outside on my covered porch, it was a fairly light wind, torrential rains and then all of a sudden a gust came up must have been 35-40 miles per hour. Looked like it was going to pick up my 1 year old cherry tree. Wind howling in the 100 foot trees around my house. That was scary!!! I have put a flashlight in my pocket. Lights flickering. Hopefully lights and power do not go out. If this is my last post. Stay safe everyone!! WE have a long way to go!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 The dryslot is quickly being filled in as more bands develop and the center moves north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 The Raritan River is rising way ahead of schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Outside truly sounds like the screaming in the beginning of "Welcome to the Jungle" (Guns N Roses). I'm now convinced that weatherbug station must be experiencing some issues, there's no way we only gusted to 41. Probably blew off since it got mighty windy after that 41 mph gust was recorded lol. SE Queens, heading into that dry slot. Where's the station mounted? Most of those stations aren't mounted high enough clear of surrounding structures or trees to get good wind readings. So you'll get gusts that you think should be higher, but they will register lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Doesn't look like the dry slot will last long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 A line of storms firing east of NJ. Models have some intense banding developing north of the center over the next few hours, will see if that happens...if it does, historic flooding becomes more likely for NYC and points into the lower Hudson Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 ESE gusts to 41 thats what keeps waking me .whitestone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BayShore Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Power just went off and came right back on. Almost seemed like a simulated failover test or something. Seemed strange because it went off during a 5-10 min lul without any gusting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Currently low tide in NYC (2am) and around 4 foot of surge. You can glance at the radar and see how bad of a situation this can really become. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Local TV gives Irene's barometric pressure in mb, yet when the weather returns to normal, they will go back to inches of mercury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Where's the station mounted? Most of those stations aren't mounted high enough clear of surrounding structures or trees to get good wind readings. So you'll get gusts that you think should be higher, but they will register lower. I believe it's on the roof of a 3 story school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Been about 35 minutes for me so far in cnj. Just reached us. Looks to last for about another hour. We had problems with our basement already, with water seeping through the ceiling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I can never recall such heavy rainfall lasting for so long and there's a lot more to go...too bad DXR is about 5 miles SSW of here, we've definitely gotten more rain up here, so the rainfall reports are a bit off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I believe it's on the roof of a 3 story school. I'm not sure what its like around there, but there's lots of trees nearby or higher structures, then it could easily come in low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Salisbury, MD just shifted to a NW wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 The dryslot is quickly being filled in as more bands develop and the center moves north Earlier, the strong bands around the center seemed to be weakening. However, they seem to be picking up now and intensifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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