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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part III


NickD2011

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I guess it's a bust for Westchester then...have had almost no wind here with just steady, moderate rain. Rainfall has just become heavier now on the station.

+RA

73.3/73

not sure where you are, but 00z WRF had 10m winds at 17kt as of 2am...1am report from HPN was 19kt.....

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51 mph. I think Farmingdale had a working farm, I remember a kindergarten field trip from Unqua School...

KFRG 280528Z AUTO 10027G44KT 2SM +RA BR SCT010 BKN017 OVC022 23/23 A2937 RMK AO2 PK WND 07047/0504 PRESFR P0027

what about the peak wind?? says 070 (ENE) around 47kts??

KISP gusting just below TS winds

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The western edge of the center will be approaching Cape May within ninety minutes.

One thing now being missed a bit with all the winds and rain being observed is it appears the center is definitely going to track along the western edge of the guidance envelope. That could be a result of it undergoing an extratropical transformation a bit earlier, a true hurricane would have a tendency to go more right which is why I had pounded that idea for so many days, like NHC I thought this wouldn't transform til over NE, even with it weakening I thought it would maintain more of a warm core nature.

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One thing now being missed a bit with all the winds and rain being observed is it appears the center is definitely going to track along the western edge of the guidance envelope. That could be a result of it undergoing an extratropical transformation a bit earlier, a true hurricane would have a tendency to go more right which is why I had pounded that idea for so many days, like NHC I thought this wouldn't transform til over NE, even with it weakening I thought it would maintain more of a warm core nature.

Some of the phase diagrams a few days ago had ET starting now too. 9/10 times the idea of bending right would happen, but I also think the ridge to the east built in just in time to help prevent it. I too, thought it would bend more east.

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One thing now being missed a bit with all the winds and rain being observed is it appears the center is definitely going to track along the western edge of the guidance envelope. That could be a result of it undergoing an extratropical transformation a bit earlier, a true hurricane would have a tendency to go more right which is why I had pounded that idea for so many days, like NHC I thought this wouldn't transform til over NE, even with it weakening I thought it would maintain more of a warm core nature.

Oh so this isn't a true hurricane? Funny, it's catagorized as a hurricane. And judging from what we are seeing out of S. Jersey, it's almost like a real hurricane. But hey, I'll tell my friends there not to worry since this isn't a true hurricane.

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