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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part III


NickD2011

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I guess it's a bust for Westchester then...have had almost no wind here with just steady, moderate rain. Rainfall has just become heavier now on the station.

+RA

73.3/73

Same exact situation here in Oakland, NJ - extreme NW Bergen.

Though I think the threat for stronger winds in areas like ours comes after the passage of the low tomorrow morning. Granted, it's kind of a long shot for us at this point, but here's a relevant portion of Mt. Holly's recently-updated AFD that could have implications for us:

WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EMBEDDED STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE RAIN SHIELD, HOWEVER FOR NOW THE ROTATION SEEN ON RADAR HAS SCALED BACK. THE TORNADO WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT AS IS THOUGH UNTIL 5 AM. STRONGER WINDS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING IN SOME AREAS WHEN THE RAIN INTENSITY INCREASED AS BETTER MOMENTUM TRANSFER HAS BEEN ABLE TO OCCUR. THE RAINFALL RATES HAVE BEEN ABOUT 2 INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER BANDED FEATURES. WE ARE MONITORING SIGNIFICANT 3-HOUR PRESSURE RISES TO OUR SOUTH. THIS IS AIDING AN AREA OF GUSTS TO ABOUT 50 KNOTS ACROSS EASTERN VIRGINIA AND NORTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE IRENE. THESE PRESSURE RISES ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR EVEN STRONGER GUSTS ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR REGION BEHIND THE CENTER OF IRENE AS IT TRACKS TO OUR NORTHEAST.

I'll admit I"m baffled by the state of Irene tonight. It's obviously a decaying TC losing symmetry and tropical characteristics, but the system seems almost ridiculously disjointed: gusts have been maxing out around 40 (and lower in many cases) on the Delmarva very close to the storm center, the Jersey Shore is hardly gusting to TS force after its period of higher winds earlier, and yet it's a 954 mb low sitting right there. I'm not terribly surprised that inland locations like ours aren't getting any wind yet, but it seems unreal to me that the Delmarva and Jersey Shore aren't seeing storm force gusts right now, regardless of what happened there several hours ago. Hopefully, the backside will deliver up here as it has further south, with some strong offshore winds to keep tides from maxing higher.

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