psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Raining here in Long Beach-calm winds. really? calm winds? its actually a little breezy here right now away from the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://radblast-mi.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/radar/WUNIDS_map?station=OKX&brand=wui&num=6&delay=15&type=N0R&frame=0&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&t=1314447907&lat=41.07666016&lon=-73.48110199&label=Darien%2C+CT&showstorms=0&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=400¢ery=240&transx=0&transy=0&showlabels=1&severe=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&smooth=0 storms firing to the north along the boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Water at this morning's high tide made it about halfway up the beach-2 or 3 feet higher and it would have entered town most likely. Tomorrow morning ain't gonna be fun surge-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 wasn't there supposed to be a 10 am advisory? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 or if you weren't such a douche, you wouldnt make a public spectacle of that post. I asked here first because people pass reliable information. I'm not asking rainfall totals for the island. Im asking here 1st, "googling" as well.... You asked a good question that really didn't warrant that response man. Your family as well as mine if of the utmost importance and were here to pass on useful information and conditions to the members. Anyway hope you and your grandmom are safe during and after this storm. On the other hand this storm is looking pretty healthy and may hold cat 1 strength as it makes landfall on L.I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NAM looks just like 6z gfs. Comes right into NYC. 972 MB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Water at this morning's high tide made it about halfway up the beach-2 or 3 feet higher and it would have entered town most likely. Tomorrow morning ain't gonna be fun surge-wise. hows the surf looking? So the water level was already a few feet higher? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 hows the surf looking? So the water level was already a few feet higher? Huge breakers-probably 7 or 8 foot at least. Surfers having a blast and the boardwalk was packed.The water at high tide made it about halfway up and there isn't another big increase in the sand elevation before the boardwalk and into the street. If the water were 3 feet higher there would probably be flooding already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NAM over Atlantic City at 12z tomorrow-faster than previous runs. It looks likely that the storm will be probably midway or so up the NJ coast by around 7-8am, terrible timing for surge. You can probably tack 5-6 feet on top of what the low tide surge would be with the lunar effect. In NY harbor it would probably be even worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Anyone know offhand what the Long Island storm surge was in an analogous hurricane in the past? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Huge breakers-probably 7 or 8 foot at least. Surfers having a blast and the boardwalk was packed.The water at high tide made it about halfway up and there isn't another big increase in the sand elevation before the boardwalk and into the street. If the water were 3 feet higher there would probably be flooding already. id love to take a drive down there...will i find anywhere to park? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 id love to take a drive down there...will i find anywhere to park? Parking was iffy about an hour ago. I would head down fairly soon as I think bridges will be shut later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Interesting how models deepen the pressure as the storm goes north of N.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 suffolk, va gusted to 58 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Interesting how models deepen the pressure as the storm goes north of N.C. The E.T. transition and the favorable upper air pattern as others have mentioned. People shouldn't be fooled by the 85mph intensity now-this probably has at least significant wind impacts all the way up here. If it's a 70mph TS with gusts up to 90+, that can still do quite a bit of damage, especially on the east side where the winds are enhanced by the north movement of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Right, though it's the east side where those 70mph winds would be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Pretty fascinating to follow the WV imagery on a quiet day at work out here in Chicago, the northern outflow channel is clearly starting hook up with the jet streak as forecast by all the modeling. Moisture starting to wrap around center again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 fwiw the nam is righ up nj coast into NENJ/ NY Harbor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Pretty fascinating to follow the WV imagery on a quiet day at work out here in Chicago, the northern outflow channel is clearly starting hook up with the jet streak as forecast by all the modeling. Moisture starting to wrap around center again. Looks like irene may hold cat 1 strength as it landfalls in nyc/LI then correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I would think the top winds for anyone west of the city away from the coast is 70 maybe 75 mph. Wouldn't a TS warning be sufficient? or at this point I guess they would just be nervous about downgrading and having people let their guard down. But as usual if I go 2 miles to my west I'd be in a TS warning instead of the hurricane warning I'm in. Right, though it's the east side where those 70mph winds would be.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Anyone know offhand what the Long Island storm surge was in an analogous hurricane in the past? good info in here http://www.nyc.gov/html/oem/downloads/pdf/hazard_mitigation/section_3f_coastal_storm_hazard_analysis.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 tropical thundershowers flaring up over northern Fairfield County, I wouldn't be surprised if we've already gotten close to an inch of rain. People don't realize these are just fringe affects, I bet some people are in major panic mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ELCwx Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 wasn't there supposed to be a 10 am advisory? I think the 8 a.m. said they were going back to three hour intervals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 People are already in panic mode all around.. This storm may ride up the coast - just inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Good luck up there! I moved down here from CNJ a few years ago but my family still lives in Middlesex Cty. Stay safe and enjoy the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 People are already in panic mode all around.. This storm may ride up the coast - just inland to clarify, I mean in the Danbury metro area. We flood during minor/moderate rain storms, the flooding we get over the next 24-30 hours could be unlike anything witnessed in generations...and this pre-storm rainfall is only adding insult to injury. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 People are already in panic mode all around.. This storm may ride up the coast - just inland Worst track for city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Excessive rainfall outlook, looks like overall they lowered QPF just a tad, these systems are capable of dropping close to 20" under the right circumstances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Looks like irene may hold cat 1 strength as it landfalls in nyc/LI then correct? That's hard to say, but possible if good structure is maintained, which is what guidance has been suggesting as a biproduct of the strengthening 250 mb jet streak. For it to keep hurricane status, it would likely need to reemerge east of Norfolk/Va Beach and parallel the coast. SSTs are cooler, but still fairly warm, a buoy off of Delaware coast has a water temp. of 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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