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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part III


NickD2011

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If Irene's already down to 85 mph sustained (but with the 115 mph gust, I would think that would support a stronger intensity?), I think it will be a high end TS here-so alas, this probably won't be my first hurricane. :(

But I agree about the potential for tree/power line damage. The 3/13/10 storm caused a ton of damage here, and we had mostly bare trees. Peak wind gusts here were around 75 mph. If sustained winds here are close to 60-70 mph, we could still see 80-90 mph wind gusts. We will also probably be very near or over the "eye". The timing of the impact near high tide is quite concerning as well. We're not out of the woods by any stretch, particularly on the immediate coast.

There's already been sustained winds of over 100mph in the past hour.

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If Irene's already down to 85 mph sustained (but with the 115 mph gust, I would think that would support a stronger intensity?), I think it will be a high end TS here-so alas, this probably won't be my first hurricane. :(

But I agree about the potential for tree/power line damage. The 3/13/10 storm caused a ton of damage here, and we had mostly bare trees. Peak wind gusts here were around 75 mph. If sustained winds here are close to 60-70 mph, we could still see 80-90 mph wind gusts. We will also probably be very near or over the "eye". The timing of the impact near high tide is quite concerning as well. We're not out of the woods by any stretch, particularly on the immediate coast.

Dr. Rich Nabb also said it was common for gusts to be 40% greater than max sustained winds in hurricanes.

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Every minute that passes, this storm is shaping up to be similar to Gloria but further west.... If this storm is anything close to Gloria, but with a high(er) tide cycle involved w/ a track into queens/brooklyn, i will just say "pray for everyones safety"

with reports that winds are over 100mph down in NC... the winds in the NYC area on east should be in the 60-75mph range by the time the storm gets here.. w/ higher gusts.. this would amount to severe tree damage and major effects on people's general welfare throughout the region..

good luck everyone..

Jeff

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This thing seems to be crawling over NC right now, really cannot even get any idea of the forward motion direction looking at the radar. So far we have seen the radius of the winds is large as expected, New Bern in the NW eye wall gusted to 75 mph and Hatteras consistently 70-85 for 4 hours....I still expect we'll get that 15-20 mph weakening though over the next 12-18 hours.

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Mike Woods on Ch 5.

mmqyvq.jpg

Way too strong. Morehead City did not even see winds that strong on any of their observations and the exposed and unsheltered Hatteras saw winds only to 84 mph. I'd probably fall off the chair and put a hole in the floor if LGA, JFK, FRG, ISP, EWR, or NYC gusted to 90 mph and I'm not that fat either.

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Way too strong. Morehead City did not even see winds that strong on any of their observations and the exposed and unsheltered Hatteras saw winds only to 84 mph. I'd probably fall off the chair and put a hole in the floor if LGA, JFK, FRG, ISP, EWR, or NYC gusted to 90 mph and I'm not that fat either.

Alot of stations are still going with a Cat 1 hurricane.

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I love how the past few pages as well as the entire last thread were filled with posts downplaying Irene's impacts when she currently looks the best on radar she has in the past 24 hours and has indeed maintained strength as well. I don't understand why the mods tolerate post after post of "omg no storm" (especially from a certain met who is saying it over and over again yet this met blew the track forecast completely) when it's clearly not the case & we are still in store for a very significant event by NY standards.

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One (possible) reason for the apparent improvement in Irene could be that her inflow is no longer from areas in drought. Obviously this probably wasn't a major cause of her weakening, but inflow from areas that have been relatively wet (aka the Northeast this past month) versus the South (which has been and continues to be in a drought) certainly can't hurt the storm's development.

drmon.gif

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One (possible) reason for the apparent improvement in Irene could be that her inflow is no longer from areas in drought. Obviously this probably wasn't a major cause of her weakening, but inflow from over areas that have been relatively wet (aka the Northeast this past month) versus the South (which has been and continues to be in a drought) certainly can't hurt the storm's development.

drmon.gif

Waitwhat?

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Irene is looking much better on satelittle. It looks like the eye is forming and tightening .

It looks as if it's tightening up on both radar and satellite. The SW flank seems to be much healthier than a few frames ago.

Bill Evans is still going with 60-80 mph winds for the coast with 5-10 inches of rain.

This makes sense...NWS has 80mph gusts for Dobbs Ferry, and you're much more exposed than I am. 6z GFS also greatly increased QPF with most of the area getting 8"+ after the 0z only showed 5" or so.

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Watching the WC, with Bloomberg giving a presser live. it's saying 300k people "ordered" to evacuate"..... Where are the evacuations zones? Sorry, my Grandmom lives in Staten Island.

There is an area in Staten Island near the water. They have them designated in zones and the evacuation affects "zone A". Can't recall the names of the towns in SI.

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