SnowDemon Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Winds are starting to pick up a bit here. Still raining moderately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Just because they downgrade the storm to a tropical storm doesn't mean the warnings would have to be lowered. My area was never supposed to get hurricane force winds but we have a HW anyway This* most new yorkers don't even take tornado watches/warnings seriously. They listen to Hurricane warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 You downgrade or upgrade based on observations, not emotions. Right now at least according to ag3 she doesn't support hurricane status. Thats it. If she strengthens again later then that will be reflected in the observations and then the subsequent report. They have a history of doing things not to confuse the public. Remember the Perfect Storm? There was actually an unnamed hurricane in there because they didn't want the public confused. That was not the only example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 This* most new yorkers don't even take tornado watches/warnings seriously. They listen to Hurricane warnings. How do you know that? Do you have some sort of data to back that up, or are you making it up as you go along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 important to note that KDOX radar is in tropical mode while KDIX is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Not necessarily. There's a lot of politics that goes into the NHC's decision, not simply raw data. They kept it at MH status for how many advisories, even though winds didn't support it? I agree that they're less likely to downgrade Irene to a TS just as it's coming into the tri-state area than a random cyclone in the middle of the EPAC. Correct. The Perfect Storm is the Perfect Example lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 This* most new yorkers don't even take tornado watches/warnings seriously. They listen to Hurricane warnings. After last summer's tornado parade (3 touchdowns in the 5 boroughs), I think they'll be taking it plenty seriously, hurricane warning or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 But the potential risk in that is if we only get 40 or 50 mph winds then the next one could come in worse and people will say oh they made a big deal out of Irene and nothing happened and not heed the warnings. Granted it could be many years before we could another legitimate threat like this but we could also have one in 2 weeks so who knows Not necessarily. There's a lot of politics that goes into the NHC's decision, not simply raw data. They kept it at MH status for how many advisories, even though winds didn't support it? I agree that they're less likely to downgrade Irene to a TS just as it's coming into the tri-state area than a random cyclone in the middle of the EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Take a look at Wildwood. The beach is gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 How do you know that? Do you have some sort of data to back that up, or are you making it up as you go along? You'd have to live here dude. He is spot on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 this has to be the slowest mid - atlantic/northeast tropical system.. anyone have any info on what belle was like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 You'd have to live here dude. He is spot on. Not as lightly as they used to not after last summer especially after that macroburst/tornado storm last July all across the 5 boroughs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Steve d- Latest RECON has #hurricane Irene with a strong NE quadrant winds of 81 KT or 95 mph. TweetDeck • 8/27/11 8:35 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Steve d- Latest RECON has #hurricane Irene with a strong NE quadrant winds of 81 KT or 95 mph. TweetDeck • 8/27/11 8:35 PM man- that's nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 How do you know that? Do you have some sort of data to back that up, or are you making it up as you go along? This is gonna be equivalent to a rock solid coast huggin nor' easter with added fanfare imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Steve d- Latest RECON has #hurricane Irene with a strong NE quadrant winds of 81 KT or 95 mph. TweetDeck • 8/27/11 8:35 PM So, to me that begs question of where the 61 Kt wind report came from. There is only one official source of these dropsonde readings, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Not necessarily. Last night the recon found 123 mph winds and the update kept the surface winds at 105 man- that's nuts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Steve d- Latest RECON has #hurricane Irene with a strong NE quadrant winds of 81 KT or 95 mph. TweetDeck • 8/27/11 8:35 PM It's a tropical storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 There was just a reporter on Fox 5 NY in Ocean City, MD being absolutely inundated with sea foam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 More steve d-But the damage is done already, Irene will be able to reach New York City as a hurricane at this rate. TweetDeck • 8/27/11 8:35 PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Not necessarily. Last night the recon found 123 mph winds and the update kept the surface winds at 105 It wasn't really clear though...are those flight level or surface winds? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 There was just a reporter on Fox 5 NY in Ocean City, MD being absolutely inundated with sea foam. Lmao I saw that. Looks like he was genuinely enjoying it. Fox is obsessing over it, though. Lmao. Have yet to have anything seriously gusty here in Edison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Not necessarily. Last night the recon found 123 mph winds and the update kept the surface winds at 105 Based on that proportion, his report equates to 80 mph surface winds-- right where NHC has it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Is she still expected to strengthen due to the jetstream or whatever? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Steve d- Latest RECON has #hurricane Irene with a strong NE quadrant winds of 81 KT or 95 mph. TweetDeck • 8/27/11 8:35 PM That's flight-level though, which i hope Steve D. pointed out. (I didn't check; link would help.) Standard reduction would argue for a 65 kt hurricane at most, and that may be generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Theres a theory that was proved correct of spawning in the eyewall of twisters i saw it on nat geo a couple of years not just heavy outerbands so if your near the eye watchout . Some scientists positioned an obs vehicle that recorded twisters jumping right out of the wall pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 It wasn't really clear though...are those flight level or surface winds? Either way, they're sustained hurricane force winds in the NE Quadrant. I tend to think they are flight level winds because they fit in nicely with NHC's 80 mph strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 They just had someone in Seaside heights getting blasted There was just a reporter on Fox 5 NY in Ocean City, MD being absolutely inundated with sea foam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Take a look at Wildwood. The beach is gone. Whoa!!!, and that beach is super huge, that walk between the boardwalk and the ocean is so long, I'd say maybe in between .25 and .50 miles. I'm very shocked but then again it is a very flat beach. Still kinda surreal seeing that in a place I know like the back of my hand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 If they downgrade it, which they should. Would this be the deepest (pressure wise) TS in history? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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