IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I am legitimatly scared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 downgrade to TS is imminent...nothing from the HH's supports a hurricane at this point Its fooling us with a good appearance possibly, still waiting on Wallops Island's highest gust, 41kts so far. I'm telling you now though NHC will be stubborn to downgrade this, largely because the NYC high rise factor they might not want to be calling this a TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I'll repeat myself for the hundredth time you have abnormal sst's she still thinks shes in the tropics not very scientific but thats the way i see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I'll repeat myself for the hundredth time you have abnormal sst's she still thinks shes in the tropics not very scientific but thats the way i see it. if that's the case then why is she degrading to a tropical storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I am legitimatly scared Same here. Its more because I have no idea what to expect. I know the winds won't be like Gloria, we wont see 90-105 mph gusts but I have no idea what the surge is going to be like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Its fooling us with a good appearance possibly, still waiting on Wallops Island's highest gust, 41kts so far. I'm telling you now though NHC will be stubborn to downgrade this, largely because the NYC high rise factor they might not want to be calling this a TS. how bout a 950 pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Yup. Aircraft finding only 60knot sustained right now. Might have to downgrade. Let's see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 if that's the case then why is she degrading to a tropical storm? I haven't seen a downgrade to a TS...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Same here. Its more because I have no idea what to expect. I know the winds won't be like Gloria, we wont see 90-105 mph gusts but I have no idea what the surge is going to be like. My winds will probably be higher than they were with Gloria. I think the gusts here barely touched 60 with Gloria. Had higher winds than that in Dec 92 and Mar 2010-- close to 80 mph in those. Thinking similar gusts to that here, SG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I haven't seen a downgrade to a TS...... Current recon can only find 60knots so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I haven't seen a downgrade to a TS...... writing is on the wall, bro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Downgrading this would be a huge mistake with her back over the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 She is a atlantic cyclone,tropical storm, whatever you choose to call her and i say she's pissed off , i have never seen a storm get its act together this fast after landfall we have a dangerous situation developing . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I'll repeat myself for the hundredth time you have abnormal sst's she still thinks shes in the tropics not very scientific but thats the way i see it. Check today's SST's. 3-4F decline in SST since yesterday due to upwelling from VA to NJ. Down to 75-78 average, and at a shallow depth at that. That's not bad for the coast, but not sustainable temps for a TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 writing is on the wall, bro. Ok, we'll see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 <b></b>if that's the case then why is she degrading to a tropical storm?<b></b><b></b><b></b><b></b>Tropical Storm David in Sept 1979 had gusts to 70+MPH in some places here and that storm rode inland to EPA.A downgrade means nothing at this point.This is still going to be a formidable storm with a big surge at high tide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Strong ts, weak cat 1, not much difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I think im most scared of the tornado watch, being as its dark and there wont be much warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Getting pretty windy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Strong ts, weak cat 1, not much difference Not in terms of the hurricane/TS itself, but a huge difference to the tards out there who hear "downgraded" and "tropical storm". Handling the public, especially the NYC metro area, is pretty delicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 G-d forbid she starts spawning tornadoes your not gonna give a **** what its classification is wilma was a bodacious birther of twisters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 1 foot of surge at the battery and the winds are only gusting into the 20s. That's the worrisome part of all this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 1 foot of surge at the battery and the winds are only gusting into the 20s. That's the worrisome part of all this. This is what Knabb said... Pressure is a better indicator of damage than winds for large storms and should be used instead of wind for storms like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Not in terms of the hurricane/TS itself, but a huge difference to the tards out there who hear "downgraded" and "tropical storm". Handling the public, especially the NYC metro area, is pretty delicate. Totally agree with you there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Downgrading this would be a huge mistake with her back over the water You downgrade or upgrade based on observations, not emotions. Right now at least according to ag3 she doesn't support hurricane status. Thats it. If she strengthens again later then that will be reflected in the observations and then the subsequent report. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sock Puppet Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Raining pretty hard here although not much wind yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 1 foot of surge at the battery and the winds are only gusting into the 20s. That's the worrisome part of all this. I did not know you are now a PROMET.Congratulations,you worked your ass off to get it. I agree about the surge.It is going to be ugly tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I would think that they'd keep calling it a hurricane just to keep people from getting the idea that the storm is somehow less dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I would think that they'd keep calling it a hurricane just to keep people from getting the idea that the storm is somehow less dangerous. This* most new yorkers don't even take tornado watches/warnings seriously. They listen to Hurricane warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 You downgrade or upgrade based on observations, not emotions. Right now at least according to ag3 she doesn't support hurricane status. Thats it. If she strengthens again later then that will be reflected in the observations and then the subsequent report. Not necessarily. There's a lot of politics that goes into the NHC's decision, not simply raw data. They kept it at MH status for how many advisories, even though winds didn't support it? I agree that they're less likely to downgrade Irene to a TS just as it's coming into the tri-state area than a random cyclone in the middle of the EPAC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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