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Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part III


NickD2011

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downgrade to TS is imminent...nothing from the HH's supports a hurricane at this point :(

Its fooling us with a good appearance possibly, still waiting on Wallops Island's highest gust, 41kts so far. I'm telling you now though NHC will be stubborn to downgrade this, largely because the NYC high rise factor they might not want to be calling this a TS.

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Same here. Its more because I have no idea what to expect. I know the winds won't be like Gloria, we wont see 90-105 mph gusts but I have no idea what the surge is going to be like.

My winds will probably be higher than they were with Gloria. I think the gusts here barely touched 60 with Gloria.

Had higher winds than that in Dec 92 and Mar 2010-- close to 80 mph in those. Thinking similar gusts to that here, SG?

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I'll repeat myself for the hundredth time you have abnormal sst's she still thinks shes in the tropics not very scientific but thats the way i see it.

Check today's SST's. 3-4F decline in SST since yesterday due to upwelling from VA to NJ. Down to 75-78 average, and at a shallow depth at that. That's not bad for the coast, but not sustainable temps for a TC.

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<b></b>if that's the case then why is she degrading to a tropical storm?<b></b>
<b></b><b></b><b></b>Tropical Storm David in Sept 1979 had gusts to 70+MPH in some places here and that storm rode inland to EPA.A downgrade means nothing at this point.This is still going to be a formidable storm with a big surge at high tide.
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Strong ts, weak cat 1, not much difference

Not in terms of the hurricane/TS itself, but a huge difference to the tards out there who hear "downgraded" and "tropical storm".

Handling the public, especially the NYC metro area, is pretty delicate.

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1 foot of surge at the battery and the winds are only gusting into the 20s. That's the worrisome part of all this.

This is what Knabb said...

Pressure is a better indicator of damage than winds for large storms and should be used instead of wind for storms like this.

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Downgrading this would be a huge mistake with her back over the water

You downgrade or upgrade based on observations, not emotions. Right now at least according to ag3 she doesn't support hurricane status. Thats it. If she strengthens again later then that will be reflected in the observations and then the subsequent report.

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1 foot of surge at the battery and the winds are only gusting into the 20s. That's the worrisome part of all this.

I did not know you are now a PROMET.Congratulations,you worked your ass off to get it.

I agree about the surge.It is going to be ugly tomorrow morning.

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You downgrade or upgrade based on observations, not emotions. Right now at least according to ag3 she doesn't support hurricane status. Thats it. If she strengthens again later then that will be reflected in the observations and then the subsequent report.

Not necessarily. There's a lot of politics that goes into the NHC's decision, not simply raw data. They kept it at MH status for how many advisories, even though winds didn't support it? I agree that they're less likely to downgrade Irene to a TS just as it's coming into the tri-state area than a random cyclone in the middle of the EPAC.

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