SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 And the eyewall near shore dance begins....I love how every storm the eye parallels or jogs right for a bit before it comes ashore almost as if it knows it does not want to go over land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 This is Cantore's fault...wherever he goes the storm dies. He came to NYC on 12/19/09 and a dry air push of biblical proportions came down the CT river valley. The storm will probably undergo extratropical bombogenesis over New Hampshire and produce a stronger gust there than anywhere in NY. idk we were ok just east of the city, although I wanted those 30" totals Suffolk County got lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 And the eyewall near shore dance begins....I love how every storm the eye parallels or jogs right for a bit before it comes ashore almost as if it knows it does not want to go over land. I know! I've been noticing this for years. Do you think friction and wanting to take the path of least resistance causes this, SG? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What else would you call it? In other news: Long Island is actually an island! Who would have guessed it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 6Z GFS and euro couldn't look an closer lol then the center of the eye should pass 3 miles to my west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Hatteras gusting to 84 mph now. Seeing now why you don't want to be on the east side of this, or should I say DIDN'T want to be on the east side had this been a cat 2 or strong cat 1 when it reached LI., NWS trained spotter is reporting sustained wind of 80 mph, gusts to 93 mph at Stacy, NC. Reported by Wunderground on twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Alex you think i should bring in the bird feeder i just can't make up my mind such problems.I like Cantore but if you believe in bad luck with storms i'll never forget one time he was reporting in Mass. doing obs for a snowstorm and thunder scared the **** at of him happened to me last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 What kind of wind comes with the outter bands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 There's a media VS. public war going on right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I personally think the 92 nor'easter locally my little world will outperform this storm simply from a duration point of view and how destructive it was in the bronx.That event lasted 4 tides we know thats not going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Irene has made landfall at Cape Lookout, North Carolina as an 85 mph category 1 hurricane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 115mph wind gust in the right front quandrant...sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 6z GFS is right over NYC area. Closer to Queens. I know it was mentioned, but here is the imagery: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 115mph wind gust in the right front quandrant...sweet. Confirmed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 6z GFS is right over NYC area. Closer to Queens. I know it was mentioned, but here is the imagery: If someone can differentiate between NYC and Queens on the GFS with the large center at landfall, g-d bless them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 6z GFS is right over NYC area. Closer to Queens. I know it was mentioned, but here is the imagery: It should be interesting to see if the storm really gains strength as it heads northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Euro and GFS both have her pulsing a little and she goes back over water soon and then maintaining the strength as she comes right up the Jersey coast and right into NYC. IMO, take off 15-20mph from what's occuring in NC and that's what we should expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Confirmed? It was mentioned by that hurricane specialist on TWC, He said he was dubious at first but I believe he confirmed it, I know there was 100 mph confirmed in the same general area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Euro and GFS both have her pulsing a little and she goes back over water soon and then maintaining the strength as she comes right up the Jersey coast and right into NYC. IMO, take off 15-20mph from what's occuring in NC and that's what we should expect. I agree with this. Our area should be in the RFQ and if that core holds together thats the money spot right now It won't last long, but we should be able to see it. There is going to be hours and hours of TS wind with a ton of rain, perfect recipe for a lot of tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whiteoutwx1796 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Everyone is so busy looking at where the eye is...meanwhile showers and thunderstorms are about to hit our south shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm thinking it'll be 70-75mph or so sustained when it gets here. I think it'll be slow to spin down overall as it should remain just offshore the Delmarva/NJ etc. Again, NHC has it arriving here around 7-8am tomorrow, which is very bad news for the high tide cycle. Models are a little slower, but given where Irene is now and the likelihood she will start to accelerate, I could definitely see it here in 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 0750 AM HURRICANE CEDAR ISLAND 35.00N 76.33W 08/27/2011 CARTERET NC DEPT OF HIGHWAYS 115 MPH WIND GUST REPORTED AT THE CEDAR ISLAND FERRY OFFICE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Everyone is so busy looking at where the eye is...meanwhile showers and thunderstorms are about to hit our south shore. yea i was about to say....incoming... http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=OKX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Here she comes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 My concern is people thinking oh its weakening and them not taking it that seriously. My brother for example didn't do anything to prepare. I hooked up my 15000 watt generator, brought in all furniture, got water, food(since my food and beverages will be nice and chilly with my generator lol) and parked all cars in covered parking garages around my area. Oh forgot also cut my lawn yesterday haha just incase mothernature couldn't do it right herself tommorow. People do gotta take this seriously though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Flooding is obviously going to be the biggest concern especially because of the interaction with the coastal front which will enhance rainfall even further. Plus once the ground is very saturated, 50-60 mph winds will be all it takes to knock them down which is what I'm expected as far as wind is concerned up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'm thinking it'll be 70-75mph or so sustained when it gets here. I think it'll be slow to spin down overall as it should remain just offshore the Delmarva/NJ etc. Again, NHC has it arriving here around 7-8am tomorrow, which is very bad news for the high tide cycle. Models are a little slower, but given where Irene is now and the likelihood she will start to accelerate, I could definitely see it here in 24 hours. When Fran came through Raleigh, we only had a few gusts to 70-80 and the tree damage here was epic. We were out of school for 10 full days! Then you guys have to worry about surge and flooding. I remember when I was up there one summer and a thunderstorm dropped 3-4" of rain in nyc. The subway was knocked out all morning. Who knows what 10" of rain could do to that system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 JB on Facebook Wind gusts to 117 mph being reported. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Weather Channel is saying sustained winds have been confirmed already past 100mph. So well above the NHC classification at 8am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 When Fran came through Raleigh, we only had a few gusts to 70-80 and the tree damage here was epic. We were out of school for 10 full days! They you guys have to worry about surge and flooding. I remember when I was up there one summer and a thunderstorm dropped 3-4" of rain in nyc. The subway was knocked out all morning. Who knows what 10" of rain could do to that system. If Irene's already down to 85 mph sustained (but with the 115 mph gust, I would think that would support a stronger intensity?), I think it will be a high end TS here-so alas, this probably won't be my first hurricane. But I agree about the potential for tree/power line damage. The 3/13/10 storm caused a ton of damage here, and we had mostly bare trees. Peak wind gusts here were around 75 mph. If sustained winds here are close to 60-70 mph, we could still see 80-90 mph wind gusts. We will also probably be very near or over the "eye". The timing of the impact near high tide is quite concerning as well. We're not out of the woods by any stretch, particularly on the immediate coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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