Amped Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Some supercells getting ready to move into SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Radar is looking to crush down here in a few minutes. Any chance of popping a F0 F1 out of those red echos moving in to cntrl Jersey?Just got an other 5 gal gas for the genny so back in for good now. Also heard Lakehurst has streets impassable flooding on radio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 She's approaching Norfolk/VA beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 There is without a doubt a distinct possibility this comes into S NJ somewhere near Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Seems like the trajectory might take it closer to AC/LBI since they stick out further to the east but Cape May is certainly a possibility as well. I suppose it could hug the coast, partially on land with the right side over water and maintain its strength right up into NYC There is without a doubt a distinct possibility this comes into S NJ somewhere near Cape May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tornado watch issued for my county in nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikemost Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://magicseaweed.com/msw-surf-charts2.php?chart=20&res=750&type=sst&starttime= Looks as if there's enough fuel to sustain her at a minimal Cat 1 until she reaches the tri-state area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Seems like the trajectory might take it closer to AC/LBI since they stick out further to the east but Cape May is certainly a possibility as well. I suppose it could hug the coast, partially on land with the right side over water and maintain its strength right up into NYC The center going over NYC is a major problem due to what NHC states with winds 100 feet or more above ground being alot stronger in this sort of storm. You might have 60-65 mph gusts at the surface which generally should not break out windows but if you get 80-85 mph at the 35th floor it could be a problem. Hence why this cutting into NJ would be bad for surge but possibly better news for damage in areas with high rise buildings. Even the center crossing Nassau county would be better as there are generally alot less high rise buildings there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Tornado watch issued for my county in nj You are in Edison right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 CURRITUCK* HVY RAIN 74 72 92 N23G33 28.16F VSB 1 Above obs. at 6pm. Currituck is just south of Virginia Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 You are in Edison right? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 811 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ 615 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011 NJC005-023-025-029-280000- /O.EXA.KPHI.TO.A.0811.000000T0000Z-110828T0000Z/ THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 811 TO INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY MONMOUTH IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY MIDDLESEX IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY BURLINGTON OCEAN THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...EAST BRUNSWICK...EDISON... FREEHOLD...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...NEW BRUNSWICK... NORTH BRUNSWICK TOWNSHIP...PERTH AMBOY... SAYREVILLE AND TOMS RIVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://magicseaweed....=sst&starttime= Looks as if there's enough fuel to sustain her at a minimal Cat 1 until she reaches the tri-state area. NHC is going to keep this at 75 mph til its north of NYC...even if it may be 65 mph by the time it gets there. I don't think they'll feel comfortable downgrading it and several others have said that as well. ACY'd obs as well as Ocean City's and Wallops Island's when the center is near will give us a good idea how strong it is. The Newport News area has alot of stations but the center I think is going to pass jusssssst far enough east of there that the reliability of the highest gust won't be all that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 That completely answers my F0 F1 twister question, man ist coming down hard with 30 + gusts now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 One of the Virginia stations was saying how the strongest winds thus far had been closer to the Richmond area as opposed to the coastal locations closer to the center NHC is going to keep this at 75 mph til its north of NYC...even if it may be 65 mph by the time it gets there. I don't think they'll feel comfortable downgrading it and several others have said that as well. ACY'd obs as well as Ocean City's and Wallops Island's when the center is near will give us a good idea how strong it is. The Newport News area has alot of stations but the center I think is going to pass jusssssst far enough east of there that the reliability of the highest gust won't be all that good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Astronomical high tide is going to really cause the surge to be potentially worse than DEC 1992.I hope everyone got out of the areas they were supposed to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Best track Analogs Doria Gloria Floyd Bertha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 NHC is going to keep this at 75 mph til its north of NYC...even if it may be 65 mph by the time it gets there. I don't think they'll feel comfortable downgrading it and several others have said that as well. ACY'd obs as well as Ocean City's and Wallops Island's when the center is near will give us a good idea how strong it is. The Newport News area has alot of stations but the center I think is going to pass jusssssst far enough east of there that the reliability of the highest gust won't be all that good. im camped out in western suffolk, pretty much on the border with nassau...ill be in the right front quadrant...ill let you know tommorow if its a true 75 haha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JQPublic Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 One of the Virginia stations was saying how the strongest winds thus far had been closer to the Richmond area as opposed to the coastal locations closer to the center Yup, read in the Mid-Atlantic thread...60% of the city of Richmond w/o power. Gusted close to 60mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Radar is looking to crush down here in a few minutes. Any chance of popping a F0 F1 out of those red echos moving in to cntrl Jersey?Just got an other 5 gal gas for the genny so back in for good now. Also heard Lakehurst has streets impassable flooding on radio. There is a Tornado Watch in effect for Central Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 One of the Virginia stations was saying how the strongest winds thus far had been closer to the Richmond area as opposed to the coastal locations closer to the center idk about that, seen many hurricane force gusts on the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Definitely similar sounding to Doria, never got any higher than 65mph but maintained much of its intensity, almost 40 years to the day After reaching tropical storm status, Doria quickly intensified as its wind field expanded while moving northward. The minimum central pressure quickly dropped, as well, and late on August 27, Doria reached its peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h) while making landfall on North Carolina near Morehead City. The storm maintained its peak winds as it moved north-northeastward through North Carolina, and weakened slightly to a 60 mph (95 km/h) tropical storm after entering Virginia on August 28. Doria turned to the northeast, passing through the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula before entering southern New Jersey. It paralleled the state a short distance inland, and after moving through New York City Doria became extratropical over northwestern Maine on August 29. Best track Analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'd imagine there would have to be, they just said most of the wind damage reports were coming from Richmond. could be just less trees etc on the immediate coast idk about that, seen many hurricane force gusts on the coast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 she got back over water just in time, and the trajectory looks to be right along the Jersey shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Definitely similar sounding to Doria, never got any higher than 65mph but maintained much of its intensity, almost 40 years to the day After reaching tropical storm status, Doria quickly intensified as its wind field expanded while moving northward. The minimum central pressure quickly dropped, as well, and late on August 27, Doria reached its peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h) while making landfall on North Carolina near Morehead City. The storm maintained its peak winds as it moved north-northeastward through North Carolina, and weakened slightly to a 60 mph (95 km/h) tropical storm after entering Virginia on August 28. Doria turned to the northeast, passing through the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula before entering southern New Jersey. It paralleled the state a short distance inland, and after moving through New York City Doria became extratropical over northwestern Maine on August 29. Sounds similar but Irene was 85mph at landfall so stronger then Doria. Track sounds almost identical though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 I'd imagine there would have to be, they just said most of the wind damage reports were coming from Richmond. could be just less trees etc on the immediate coast I think its probably more trees in Richmond for sure being the issue. I've been there before and at least recall my hotel was surrounded by quite a few trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 http://philstropical...-the-northeast/ Potentially relevant to you folks in NJ and NYC. Biggest threats are inland flooding and storm surge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 TWC dude on virginia beach...not even on the beach...looking pretty crazy out there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Wind picked up about to get a nice band here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Heavy band about to move through over the next 20-30 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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