Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,606
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Official Hurricane Irene Live OBS/Discussion Part III


NickD2011

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 2.2k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Seems like the trajectory might take it closer to AC/LBI since they stick out further to the east but Cape May is certainly a possibility as well. I suppose it could hug the coast, partially on land with the right side over water and maintain its strength right up into NYC

There is without a doubt a distinct possibility this comes into S NJ somewhere near Cape May.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Seems like the trajectory might take it closer to AC/LBI since they stick out further to the east but Cape May is certainly a possibility as well. I suppose it could hug the coast, partially on land with the right side over water and maintain its strength right up into NYC

The center going over NYC is a major problem due to what NHC states with winds 100 feet or more above ground being alot stronger in this sort of storm. You might have 60-65 mph gusts at the surface which generally should not break out windows but if you get 80-85 mph at the 35th floor it could be a problem. Hence why this cutting into NJ would be bad for surge but possibly better news for damage in areas with high rise buildings. Even the center crossing Nassau county would be better as there are generally alot less high rise buildings there.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION FOR WATCH 811

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ

615 PM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011

NJC005-023-025-029-280000-

/O.EXA.KPHI.TO.A.0811.000000T0000Z-110828T0000Z/

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS EXTENDED TORNADO WATCH 811 TO

INCLUDE THE FOLLOWING AREAS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING

IN NEW JERSEY THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES

IN CENTRAL NEW JERSEY

MONMOUTH

IN NORTHERN NEW JERSEY

MIDDLESEX

IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY

BURLINGTON OCEAN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...EAST BRUNSWICK...EDISON...

FREEHOLD...MOORESTOWN...MOUNT HOLLY...NEW BRUNSWICK...

NORTH BRUNSWICK TOWNSHIP...PERTH AMBOY...

SAYREVILLE AND TOMS RIVER.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

http://magicseaweed....=sst&starttime=

Looks as if there's enough fuel to sustain her at a minimal Cat 1 until she reaches the tri-state area.

NHC is going to keep this at 75 mph til its north of NYC...even if it may be 65 mph by the time it gets there. I don't think they'll feel comfortable downgrading it and several others have said that as well. ACY'd obs as well as Ocean City's and Wallops Island's when the center is near will give us a good idea how strong it is. The Newport News area has alot of stations but the center I think is going to pass jusssssst far enough east of there that the reliability of the highest gust won't be all that good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the Virginia stations was saying how the strongest winds thus far had been closer to the Richmond area as opposed to the coastal locations closer to the center

NHC is going to keep this at 75 mph til its north of NYC...even if it may be 65 mph by the time it gets there. I don't think they'll feel comfortable downgrading it and several others have said that as well. ACY'd obs as well as Ocean City's and Wallops Island's when the center is near will give us a good idea how strong it is. The Newport News area has alot of stations but the center I think is going to pass jusssssst far enough east of there that the reliability of the highest gust won't be all that good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

NHC is going to keep this at 75 mph til its north of NYC...even if it may be 65 mph by the time it gets there. I don't think they'll feel comfortable downgrading it and several others have said that as well. ACY'd obs as well as Ocean City's and Wallops Island's when the center is near will give us a good idea how strong it is. The Newport News area has alot of stations but the center I think is going to pass jusssssst far enough east of there that the reliability of the highest gust won't be all that good.

im camped out in western suffolk, pretty much on the border with nassau...ill be in the right front quadrant...ill let you know tommorow if its a true 75 haha...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the Virginia stations was saying how the strongest winds thus far had been closer to the Richmond area as opposed to the coastal locations closer to the center

Yup, read in the Mid-Atlantic thread...60% of the city of Richmond w/o power. Gusted close to 60mph

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Radar is looking to crush down here in a few minutes. Any chance of popping a F0 F1 out of those red echos moving in to cntrl Jersey?Just got an other 5 gal gas for the genny so back in for good now. Also heard Lakehurst has streets impassable flooding on radio.

There is a Tornado Watch in effect for Central Jersey.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One of the Virginia stations was saying how the strongest winds thus far had been closer to the Richmond area as opposed to the coastal locations closer to the center

idk about that, seen many hurricane force gusts on the coast...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely similar sounding to Doria, never got any higher than 65mph but maintained much of its intensity, almost 40 years to the day

After reaching tropical storm status, Doria quickly intensified as its wind field expanded while moving northward. The minimum central pressure quickly dropped, as well, and late on August 27, Doria reached its peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h) while making landfall on North Carolina near Morehead City. The storm maintained its peak winds as it moved north-northeastward through North Carolina, and weakened slightly to a 60 mph (95 km/h) tropical storm after entering Virginia on August 28. Doria turned to the northeast, passing through the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula before entering southern New Jersey. It paralleled the state a short distance inland, and after moving through New York City Doria became extratropical over northwestern Maine on August 29.

Best track Analogs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely similar sounding to Doria, never got any higher than 65mph but maintained much of its intensity, almost 40 years to the day

After reaching tropical storm status, Doria quickly intensified as its wind field expanded while moving northward. The minimum central pressure quickly dropped, as well, and late on August 27, Doria reached its peak intensity of 65 mph (105 km/h) while making landfall on North Carolina near Morehead City. The storm maintained its peak winds as it moved north-northeastward through North Carolina, and weakened slightly to a 60 mph (95 km/h) tropical storm after entering Virginia on August 28. Doria turned to the northeast, passing through the Chesapeake Bay and Delmarva Peninsula before entering southern New Jersey. It paralleled the state a short distance inland, and after moving through New York City Doria became extratropical over northwestern Maine on August 29.

Sounds similar but Irene was 85mph at landfall so stronger then Doria. Track sounds almost identical though.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd imagine there would have to be, they just said most of the wind damage reports were coming from Richmond. could be just less trees etc on the immediate coast

I think its probably more trees in Richmond for sure being the issue. I've been there before and at least recall my hotel was surrounded by quite a few trees.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...