Predictions on Sept.-Dec. 2011 Severe Weather/Tornadoes

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

Reading Snowstorm's fall outlook in another thread, as well as following Hurricane Irene on the East Coast, not to mention the active spring, got me wondering: Any predictions on what the "Second Season" for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms may have in store this fall and the rest of the year? Particularly with his outlook calling for overall above-normal temps in the Midwest for the entire fall, mainly during September and October, before going below normal in November.

What are your opinions on the severe weather the rest of this year? Do you foresee any major fall tornado outbreaks (hopefully NOT after the spring we just had, plus the storms this summer particularly in the Upper Midwest), and if so when/where/what should we expect? Is there a real possibility for another "December surprise" like last New Year's Eve with the Philadelphia, AR, Sunset Hills, MO and Lake Petersburg, IL tornadoes as 2010 closed?

[Justin]

If the heat remains entrenched across the South while we begin building the cooler air over Canada with surges down into the Midwest this should, theoretically, induce a stronger jet stream once again into our picture. If we get a nice bowling ball Fall system in the jet to ripple along I certainly could see a situation with good temp contrast, good moisture feed, and good boundary convergence of a potential outbreak or two. I do think the heat will really keep feeding off the amazingly dry conditions over the Southern Plains and Texas and that will only help the temperature contrast and strengthen the jet stream more than it otherwise would be. The other factors are up in the air.

[Stebo]

If the heat remains entrenched across the South while we begin building the cooler air over Canada with surges down into the Midwest this should, theoretically, induce a stronger jet stream once again into our picture. If we get a nice bowling ball Fall system in the jet to ripple along I certainly could see a situation with good temp contrast, good moisture feed, and good boundary convergence of a potential outbreak or two. I do think the heat will really keep feeding off the amazingly dry conditions over the Southern Plains and Texas and that will only help the temperature contrast and strengthen the jet stream more than it otherwise would be. The other factors are up in the air.

Yeah if recent trends locally are any sign I am thinking that it will be active this fall possibly similar to the fall of 2007. Interestingly enough we had a widespread outbreak in late August of that year locally, and we just had one a couple days ago.

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

Yeah if recent trends locally are any sign I am thinking that it will be active this fall possibly similar to the fall of 2007. Interestingly enough we had a widespread outbreak in late August of that year locally, and we just had one a couple days ago.

I agree--based on how crazy this year has gone I have a feeling this fall that the "second season" is going to be quite active. I would not be surprised to see at least two major severe/tornado outbreaks in addition to some Sept./early Oct. severe/tornado episodes based on tropical storm/hurricane remnants that may affect the Midwest. One may be in late September (and perhaps enhanced by tropical remnants).

And I am going to go out on a limb and state that I have a funny feeling that there could be a major severe/tornado outbreak in the Plains/Midwest/Ohio Valley/perhaps lower MS Valley on or around Halloween Day (and probably the first significant snows in the upper Midwest by that same storm--on or around the 20th anniversary of the "Halloween Blizzard" in the Twin Cities)--with probably a decent-sized High Risk area somewhere in the nation's midsection due to this outbreak. This coincides with what Snowstorms predicted on the late fall/winter forecast threat yesterday when he posted his fall outlook on his blog linked below:

http://weatherintoro...th-america.html

This ties in with what Snowstorms predicted of an overall above-normal temp outlook in the Midwest--with most of it in Sept.-Oct. (and I have a feeling the heat is going to hang on--IMO I wouldn't be surprised to see a day or two near or above 90 even in early October near the Ohio Valley and perhaps even here in central IL) before going below-normal temps in November. Kind of makes me think we could have a pattern-altering weather system (with significant severe) on or around Halloween in the Midwest.

And probably an episode or two in November--and I also wouldn't be surprised if this year could be yet another Thanksgiving with an early threat of winter weather in the Midwest during that busy weekend (and probably some severe on the warm side of that storm system). Just my predictions/"guesses"/hunches I am going to throw out here.

[Thundersnow12]

Agree with Justin's thoughts.

Losing the sun angle doesn't help but usually we get the jet to come back down with several good waves in the fall that can do soemthing.