Ed Lizard Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.n...al912011.invest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/invest_al912011.invest Might have been interesting if Irene was not in the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 26, 2011 Share Posted August 26, 2011 Might have been interesting if Irene was not in the way. I talked about this feature yesterday in my blog... its time has already run out and the shear from the outflow of Irene will likely be too strong to allow development. It looked far more impressive last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Could make an argument this is a tropical depression now, but not sure what the point would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iammrben Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Could make an argument this is a tropical depression now, but not sure what the point would be. Look at those cloud tops being violently ripped off. It appears on its way to becoming a naked swirl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Could make an argument this is a tropical depression now, but not sure what the point would be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 Seriously... I got a crazy case of Deja Vu of Fiona doing this sorta dance with Earl last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 This thing just won't die... I'm really curious to see what the NHC has to say with this if it maintains this sort of organization this morning as it continues to head towards bermuda... because this is very close to a TC imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 GO 91L GO! UPDATED...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSUREAREA LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HASINCREASED THIS MORNING. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLEFOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TOBECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN LESSFAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVESGENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECTBERMUDA TODAY...AND INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THEPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 GO 91L GO! UPDATED...SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SMALL LOW PRESSUREAREA LOCATED ABOUT 160 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA HASINCREASED THIS MORNING. WHILE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLEFOR SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THIS SYSTEM TOBECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE TODAY BEFORE CONDITIONS BECOME EVEN LESSFAVORABLE. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OFBECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVESGENERALLY NORTHWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS COULD AFFECTBERMUDA TODAY...AND INTERESTS ON BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THEPROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. WOOOOOO JOSE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 TS Jose has formed... naked, but a tropical storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 weird... I wonder why the upgraded this thing. There's no deep convection left, it's going to dissipate in 36 hr anyway, I'd personally do a CYA after the 0% probability just a couple of TWO's ago, and Irene is still a big time/resource/manpower-sink right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 weird... I wonder why the upgraded this thing. There's no deep convection left, it's going to dissipate in 36 hr anyway, I'd personally do a CYA after the 0% probability just a couple of TWO's ago, and Irene is still a big time/resource/manpower-sink right now. I'd argue this was a tropical cyclone at least part of last night with deep convection... plenty of time for the Post Report to fix instead of having to add a tropical cyclone to the record. Also with Bermuda nearby, I think they didn't want to take chances in-case it flares up again. Anyway here is the advisory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurriplane Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Maybe a good idea on their part, but this literally has the best naked swirl I've seen in while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Maybe a good idea on their part, but this literally has the best naked swirl I've seen in while. Looks like Bret. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 They sure are trigger happy this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Im not so sure they should have named this, its just a naked swirl. I think it was named due to some data from the convection to its south supporting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Not naked anymore. Sheared and pitiful yes, but ASCAT definitely supported a TS if there was organized convection which it has had most of the time the last 24 hours. This ASCAT pass is >12 hours old The latest pass only had a partial, but shows some decent winds, not only 1 or two wind vectors Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Inflate the seasonal total ... the 1871 count at present would be 3 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Inflate the seasonal total ... the 1871 count at present would be 3 LOL. I guess we should just ignore storms that we wouldn't have found in the 1800's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 No, would not say ignore them, but perhaps the time is coming where we need a category like "marginal TS" that separates out the brief 35-45 kt storms in mid-ocean from the main pack. Perhaps the convention should be to name storms only if they last 48 hours or exceed 45 mph sustained, in cases where no land impact is expected. It would not be that difficult to go back over the last 40-50 years and adjust the counts, then we stand some chance of maintaining the integrity of the historical records. Does anyone really feel this is a ten-storm season to August 28th? Feels more like a three-storm season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k*** Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 No, would not say ignore them, but perhaps the time is coming where we need a category like "marginal TS" that separates out the brief 35-45 kt storms in mid-ocean from the main pack. Perhaps the convention should be to name storms only if they last 48 hours or exceed 45 mph sustained, in cases where no land impact is expected. It would not be that difficult to go back over the last 40-50 years and adjust the counts, then we stand some chance of maintaining the integrity of the historical records. Does anyone really feel this is a ten-storm season to August 28th? Feels more like a three-storm season. The "integrity of the historical records" is code for accepting mediocrity. The historical records have no integrity...they are riddled with error. Like it or not, the determination of what is or isn't a storm should be made by the best available science, not whether something "feels" like a storm. We've had a ton of crappy storms, but they all met the objective(ish) criteria established for tropical storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan88 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Small boost to 40kt, discussion mentions that there were 50+kt gusts in Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Small boost to 40kt, discussion mentions that there were 50+kt gusts in Bermuda Totally warranted at this time... actually had some really nice convective banding right at the advisory time. This is a completely legit TC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I guess we should just ignore storms that we wouldn't have found in the 1800's. The Smurfs will watch this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Yeah, I'm really tired of people bitching every time a TC like this gets classified. It meets the definition of a tropical storm, so it gets classified as such. No one cares what it was like in the 1930s, and our technology is exponentially better now to be able to classify things of this sort. A TS is a TS, period. Just look at the observations in Bermuda. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thewxmann Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 Yeah, I'm really tired of people bitching every time a TC like this gets classified. It meets the definition of a tropical storm, so it gets classified as such. No one cares what it was like in he 1930s, and our technology is exponentially better now to be able to classify things of this sort. A TS is a TS, period. Just look at the observations in Bermuda. For the record, I don't doubt this is a TC. I was just surprised they decided to upgrade when Irene was landfalling in NYC and after convection had decreased for a few hours; I would've thought that they would just add it in the post-season analysis or upgrade later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NickD2011 Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 It's a fish storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 29, 2011 Share Posted August 29, 2011 It's a fish storm. thanks. we couldn't figure that out on our own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.