Srain Posted August 27, 2011 Author Share Posted August 27, 2011 Caution. These may be a bit under done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted August 27, 2011 Share Posted August 27, 2011 If we assume that the track takes Irene over JFK or within 20 miles east or west, then the surge forecast will be complicated by timing of high tide and excess surge in Long Island Sound relative to south coast of Long Island as winds back around from SE to NE. I believe what it all means is a moderate rather than catstrophic surge but perhaps with some surprising details in terms of water rising faster along the north side of Queens towards New Rochelle relative to the Harbour. The worst surge potential of course will be further east due to better fetch and stronger winds at landfall. I would not call this a minor event by any means but I do believe it will fall short of worst case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsmwhrms Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Tide gages in the Hampton Roads area are showing near record values. Sewell's Point seems to have the longest period of record - it is at its 4th highest level ever, and is within 0.5 foot of its 1933 level, an event which I just heard the Governor of VA describe as a "massive storm surge" event. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge is within about a tenth a foot of the level of Isabel, but seems to be leveling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 From CNN. #Irene #CNN Atlantic City now starting to have flooding near the boardwalk! Had to move sat truck but now water rising on the stairs. " - @CNNTruckGuy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Tide gages in the Hampton Roads area are showing near record values. Sewell's Point seems to have the longest period of record - it is at its 4th highest level ever, and is within 0.5 foot of its 1933 level, an event which I just heard the Governor of VA describe as a "massive storm surge" event. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge is within about a tenth a foot of the level of Isabel, but seems to be leveling off. sewells point hit 7.55 record is 8.02 # 4 on the list ches bay bridge tun. hit 7.38 record is 7.54 #2 on the list kiptopeke hit 6.49 record is 7.10 # 3 on the list windmill pt. hit 4.62 record is 5.14 #3 on the list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Tide gages in the Hampton Roads area are showing near record values. Sewell's Point seems to have the longest period of record - it is at its 4th highest level ever, and is within 0.5 foot of its 1933 level, an event which I just heard the Governor of VA describe as a "massive storm surge" event. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge is within about a tenth a foot of the level of Isabel, but seems to be leveling off. Glad I didn't go to Coach's Party, My car would be floating around right now and I'd be drunk swimming after it. I Hope Coach did the smart thing and stayed safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Really bad flooding in Atlantic City. Heard from some friends and the streets are under water. Not sure how far from the ocean but it's into the poor areas past the casinos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paweatherguy1 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Really bad flooding in Atlantic City. Heard from some friends and the streets are under water. Not sure how far from the ocean but it's into the poor areas past the casinos. Really??? Because I am watching live on fox and there is a reporter standing outside outside of Caesar's palace that is only 2 blocks from the ocean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJW155 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Really??? Because I am watching live on fox and there is a reporter standing outside outside of Caesar's palace that is only 2 blocks from the ocean.... I'm hearing it on a poker forum from people that live in AC. Someone posted this but said it's 2nd hand info. AC Office of Emergency Management estimates 80-85% evacuated from city Police giving ppl ID forms to put in shoes.Predictions that ocean will meet bay on all barrier islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Martin Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 sewells point hit 7.55 record is 8.02 # 4 on the list ches bay bridge tun. hit 7.38 record is 7.54 #2 on the list kiptopeke hit 6.49 record is 7.10 # 3 on the list windmill pt. hit 4.62 record is 5.14 #3 on the list Awful awful storm here in Norfolk. Thanks for posting that info. I will be stealing it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Looks like we're going to have a serious situation in NYC later. Surge at Battery Park is already 4 feet at low tide, giving credence to the higher end projections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Great Zo Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Looks like we're going to have a serious situation in NYC later. Surge at Battery Park is already 4 feet at low tide, giving credence to the higher end projections. http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/data_menu.shtml?stn=8518750%20The%20Battery,%20NY&type=Tide%20Data Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Looks like we're going to have a serious situation in NYC later. Surge at Battery Park is already 4 feet at low tide, giving credence to the higher end projections. You think so... it seems that while the tide is increasing (since we have moved beyond low side) the total anomaly is actually leveled off more recently. While I'd certainly agree that we have a couple more feet in the anomaly to go, I'm thinking we will only max out in the 5-6 foot range in terms of above the expected tide. So roughtly double a typical high tide, which is a serious situation, but maybe not catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Uh Oh..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Water rising rapidly, covering Long Beach, Freeport, Staten Island and even Manhattan low lying areas now, covering blocks and still moving. This surge is like a minitsunami. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Water rising rapidly, covering Long Beach, Freeport, Staten Island and even Manhattan low lying areas now, covering blocks and still moving. This surge is like a minitsunami. Still though... the storm surge didn't quite reach the expectations that even I was expecting a few hours ago. No more than about 4 feet. Obviously things become far more serious when you combine that with high tide, you have a total tide of close to 9 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 CNN...east river almost topping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Statement as of 9:44 am EDT on August 28, 2011 At 8:42 am EDT this morning the tide level at The Battery reached 9.5 feet MLLW. This is the sixth highest level ever recorded at The Battery. At 9:06 am a maximum surge of 4.5 feet occurred with this high tide in combination with the astronomical tide. Other notable levels reached include the top two of 11.2 feet MLLW and 10.9 feet MLLW which occurred during the hurricane of September 1821 and hurricane Donna in 1960 respectively... and 9.6 feet MLLW during the noreaster of December 1992. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 I really want to know who thought the makeshift "dunes" of sand would actually prevent the water from causing damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Updated Battery Plot with air pressure minimum added as a bonus, agrees with the statement 2 posts up. http://tidesonline.noaa.gov/plotcomp.shtml?station_info=8518750+The+Battery,+NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
salbers Posted August 28, 2011 Share Posted August 28, 2011 Where was the highest surge observed? The most I could find was about 5 feet in some NOS Virginia stations. This bulletin says 3-7' was observed near NYC.... CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-291730- /O.CON.KOKX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 117 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...COASTAL HAZARDS... DESTRUCTIVE SURF FROM HURRICANE IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMMEL THE ATLANTIC FACING SHORELINES...WITH SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. ...WINDS... AS TROPICAL STORM IRENE DEPARTS...MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... GENERALLY 3 TO 7 FEET OF SURGE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NEW YORK HARBOR...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY... PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS...AND LONG ISLAND SOUND THIS MORNING. TIDAL LEVELS HAVE BEEN RECEDING...WITH THE REMAINING MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE EASTERN SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SEE LATEST FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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