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Hurricane Irene Surge Threat


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If we assume that the track takes Irene over JFK or within 20 miles east or west, then the surge forecast will be complicated by timing of high tide and excess surge in Long Island Sound relative to south coast of Long Island as winds back around from SE to NE.

I believe what it all means is a moderate rather than catstrophic surge but perhaps with some surprising details in terms of water rising faster along the north side of Queens towards New Rochelle relative to the Harbour.

The worst surge potential of course will be further east due to better fetch and stronger winds at landfall.

I would not call this a minor event by any means but I do believe it will fall short of worst case scenario.

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Tide gages in the Hampton Roads area are showing near record values. Sewell's Point seems to have the longest period of record - it is at its 4th highest level ever, and is within 0.5 foot of its 1933 level, an event which I just heard the Governor of VA describe as a "massive storm surge" event. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge is within about a tenth a foot of the level of Isabel, but seems to be leveling off.

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Tide gages in the Hampton Roads area are showing near record values. Sewell's Point seems to have the longest period of record - it is at its 4th highest level ever, and is within 0.5 foot of its 1933 level, an event which I just heard the Governor of VA describe as a "massive storm surge" event. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge is within about a tenth a foot of the level of Isabel, but seems to be leveling off.

sewells point hit 7.55 record is 8.02 # 4 on the list

ches bay bridge tun. hit 7.38 record is 7.54 #2 on the list

kiptopeke hit 6.49 record is 7.10 # 3 on the list

windmill pt. hit 4.62 record is 5.14 #3 on the list

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Tide gages in the Hampton Roads area are showing near record values. Sewell's Point seems to have the longest period of record - it is at its 4th highest level ever, and is within 0.5 foot of its 1933 level, an event which I just heard the Governor of VA describe as a "massive storm surge" event. The Chesapeake Bay Bridge is within about a tenth a foot of the level of Isabel, but seems to be leveling off.

Glad I didn't go to Coach's Party, My car would be floating around right now and I'd be drunk swimming after it. I Hope Coach did the smart thing and stayed safe.

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Really bad flooding in Atlantic City. Heard from some friends and the streets are under water. Not sure how far from the ocean but it's into the poor areas past the casinos.

Really??? Because I am watching live on fox and there is a reporter standing outside outside of Caesar's palace that is only 2 blocks from the ocean....

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Really??? Because I am watching live on fox and there is a reporter standing outside outside of Caesar's palace that is only 2 blocks from the ocean....

I'm hearing it on a poker forum from people that live in AC.

Someone posted this but said it's 2nd hand info.

AC Office of Emergency Management estimates 80-85% evacuated from city

Police giving ppl ID forms to put in shoes.Predictions that ocean will meet bay on all barrier islands.

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sewells point hit 7.55 record is 8.02 # 4 on the list

ches bay bridge tun. hit 7.38 record is 7.54 #2 on the list

kiptopeke hit 6.49 record is 7.10 # 3 on the list

windmill pt. hit 4.62 record is 5.14 #3 on the list

Awful awful storm here in Norfolk. Thanks for posting that info. I will be stealing it! :P

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Looks like we're going to have a serious situation in NYC later. Surge at Battery Park is already 4 feet at low tide, giving credence to the higher end projections.

You think so... it seems that while the tide is increasing (since we have moved beyond low side) the total anomaly is actually leveled off more recently. While I'd certainly agree that we have a couple more feet in the anomaly to go, I'm thinking we will only max out in the 5-6 foot range in terms of above the expected tide. So roughtly double a typical high tide, which is a serious situation, but maybe not catastrophic.

2ptx7gi.png

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Water rising rapidly, covering Long Beach, Freeport, Staten Island and even Manhattan low lying areas now, covering blocks and still moving. This surge is like a minitsunami.

Still though... the storm surge didn't quite reach the expectations that even I was expecting a few hours ago. No more than about 4 feet. Obviously things become far more serious when you combine that with high tide, you have a total tide of close to 9 feet.

es9ez6.png

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Statement as of 9:44 am EDT on August 28, 2011

At 8:42 am EDT this morning the tide level at The Battery reached

9.5 feet MLLW. This is the sixth highest level ever recorded at The

Battery. At 9:06 am a maximum surge of 4.5 feet occurred with this

high tide in combination with the astronomical tide.

Other notable levels reached include the top two of 11.2 feet MLLW

and 10.9 feet MLLW which occurred during the hurricane of September

1821 and hurricane Donna in 1960 respectively... and 9.6 feet MLLW

during the noreaster of December 1992.

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Where was the highest surge observed? The most I could find was about 5 feet in some NOS Virginia stations.

This bulletin says 3-7' was observed near NYC....

CTZ009>012-NJZ006-106-108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-291730- /O.CON.KOKX.TR.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-HUDSON-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN UNION- SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 117 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2011 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...COASTAL HAZARDS... DESTRUCTIVE SURF FROM HURRICANE IRENE WILL CONTINUE TO PUMMEL THE ATLANTIC FACING SHORELINES...WITH SEVERE BEACH EROSION AND WASHOVERS EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. ...WINDS... AS TROPICAL STORM IRENE DEPARTS...MAXIMUM WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 55 MPH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING. MINOR DAMAGE MAY OCCUR TO OLDER MOBILE HOMES. ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES WILL BE POSSIBLE. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... GENERALLY 3 TO 7 FEET OF SURGE WAS OBSERVED ACROSS NEW YORK HARBOR...THE SOUTH SHORE BAYS OF LONG ISLAND AND NEW YORK CITY... PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS...AND LONG ISLAND SOUND THIS MORNING. TIDAL LEVELS HAVE BEEN RECEDING...WITH THE REMAINING MODERATE TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING OVER WESTERN LONG ISLAND SOUND AND THE EASTERN SOUTH SHORE BACK BAYS GRADUALLY SUBSIDING THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ...INLAND FLOODING... THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SEE LATEST FORECAST FOR LATEST INFORMATION.

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