Hurricane Irene headed for landfall? How will it impact the Southeast? II-2

[WidreMann]

The center is now south of MHX and moving NE. No way it makes landfall at Cape Lookout, much less Okracoke. Probably won't see a drop here tomorrow, models be damned.

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah, now look slike it is moving back east. I think it;s time to give up on these models. They are so unreliable.

[MAG5035]

Tornadoes being spawned now in eastern NC. Beaufort County is under a tornado warning now.

I just downloaded GR2analyst and am playing around with it some. Captured the one cell northeast of Swanquarter with the really strong couplet. Very cool stuff.

[WidreMann]

Yeah, now look slike it is moving back east. I think it;s time to give up on these models. They are so unreliable.

Not really. The track error isn't that much, but it makes a big difference for us because of how tight the back edge is. The storm going just 20 miles further west, which is below the grid threshold for almost all the models, means the difference between a rainy and blustery afternoon here and just clouds with a breeze.

[Brick Tamland]

Not really. The track error isn't that much, but it makes a big difference for us because of how tight the back edge is. The storm going just 20 miles further west, which is below the grid threshold for almost all the models, means the difference between a rainy and blustery afternoon here and just clouds with a breeze.

But this thing was supposed to be a Cat 3 at least yesterday. The models always show a huge event and then it never turns out that way. This is a good case for hurricanes, but still frustrating. And it sucks when it happens for snow over and over again.

[WidreMann]

But this thing was supposed to be a Cat 3 at least yesterday. The models always show a huge event and then it never turns out that way. This is a good case for hurricanes, but still frustrating. And it sucks when it happens for snow over and over again.

The models never showed it getting super strong. They did go a little bit overboard, but the storm was a decent Cat 2 yesterday, so they weren't far off. It may strengthen a little bit overnight, but not much.

[Brick Tamland]

It's just hard for me to trust the models anymore.

[Dunkman]

It's just hard for me to trust the models anymore.

The majority of reliable intensity models had a cat 2 at landfall in NC, and I'd say the majority of model runs over the last 3 days had a landfall between Ocracoke and Hatteras. The problem is every hack weather website hypes the big runs to get hits, the TV coverage hypes the big runs to get viewers, and unless you really do research you'll never get a reasonable forecast.

[packbacker]

It's just hard for me to trust the models anymore.

The 12z GFS predicted 0.1" of rain and the 18z GFS predicted 0.60", I bet we get atleast that.

[Dunkman]

Strong couplet east of Oriental, surprised it hasn't been warned yet.

[ksstormhunter]

04z SmartCast for Cherry Point, showing around 10Z, wind potential of 63 knots. http://smartwxmodel.net/KNKT.pdf

[downeastnc]

Strong couplet east of Oriental, surprised it hasn't been warned yet.

Me and Shaggy actually saw one of these short lived weaker type of tornados during Bertha not 200 yards from the house we were in, werent sure at first it was just a swirling mass of limbs and stuff that came out of a treeline and crossed the highway. After the storm we checked that area out and there was a half mile long 50 foot wide area exactly where that swirl went that had almost every tree down. Really didnt look like a classic tornado though. A few of these are doing damage though local mets saying several reports of damage to homes in Belhaven.

Also the ILM nexrad radar long range is looking interesting seems the center is much tighter than I thought and it looks more north moving than NE though it is hard to tell without a few more updates.

[Solak]

The rain shield has collapsed. We're now getting precipitation!

[downeastnc]

The rain shield has collapsed. We're now getting precipitation!

hopefully this turns back north some so you can get at least 2-3"

We are getting hammered rain wise already estimates approaching 3"

[JQPublic]

The center is now south of MHX and moving NE. No way it makes landfall at Cape Lookout, much less Okracoke. Probably won't see a drop here tomorrow, models be damned.

Yeh definitely looks to be heading toward or east of Cape Lookout now. Maybe NYC will luck out and will miss it to the east as well.

[rduwx]

I know this was discussed earlier but I had to express my disappointment in the Weather Channel's coverage of the this storm. There are parts of the NC coast that are really getting hit hard by these outer bands and they continue to talk about the northeast and interviewing people in NJ. I haven't been a fan of the Weather Channel for a while now but this coverage is even more disappointing than I expected. Ok, enough of that rant.

As far as the models go I don't think they have been that bad. The strength might have been off some but models never do a good job at that but the track appears to be on target at this time. I was hoping earlier today it would continue to head north and not make the NNE turn but it appears to be making that turn that the models predicted.

[superjames1992]

It's just hard for me to trust the models anymore.

...

http://www.americanw...post__p__918608

I know this was discussed earlier but I had to express my disappointment in the Weather Channel's coverage of the this storm. There are parts of the NC coast that are really getting hit hard by these outer bands and they continue to talk about the northeast and interviewing people in NJ. I haven't been a fan of the Weather Channel for a while now but this coverage is even more disappointing than I expected. Ok, enough of that rant.

As far as the models go I don't think they have been that bad. The strength might have been off some but models never do a good job at that but the track appears to be on target at this time. I was hoping earlier today it would continue to head north and not make the NNE turn but it appears to be making that turn that the models predicted.

Yeah, TWC's coverage is irritating. Just because the I-95 Corridor is going to get an impact from this doesn't mean that crap isn't going down in NC. But that's the profit-driven media for you. There's more people in the Northeastern Megalopolis than in NC, so the coverage is going to focus on them.

[Snowacane]

hopefully this turns back north some so you can get at least 2-3"

We are getting hammered rain wise already estimates approaching 3"

Good you all needed it, too bad the crops are already toast.

[downeastnc]

Dont look now but looks like she might be moving more N right now, seems like last night she went NNE for awhile before going back NNW either way I gotta get a few hrs sleep cause she is either coming here or I got to head east at first light.......

[magpiemaniac]

Could the rain shield make it into the Triad overnight? The radar looks promising at of 1:44 AM.

[Bozart]

Could the rain shield make it into the Triad overnight? The radar looks promising at of 1:44 AM.

RDU area forecast discussion issued at 1:47 a.m. says, "best guess puts western edge of the rain shield from Burlington to Wadesboro."

[NCHurricane]

3.5" so far.

[JQPublic]

Just woken up by the rain in Western Wake. Should make it into Chapel Hill or so.

[shaggy]

Seems the RUC was on to something cause it sure seems to have jogged nnw in the last few radar images......winds have picked up really quick gusting to TS force constantly now.

[downeastnc]

Seems the RUC was on to something cause it sure seems to have jogged nnw in the last few radar images......winds have picked up really quick gusting to TS force constantly now.

Gusted to 44 at PGV last hr so proly getting some 50's now looks like on the current heading we dont have to go east at all, she stays on this for 3-4 more hrs and she is coming to us.

[crossthread]

Good Morning folks, I posted, but the Power flickered, and thus lost My post..

I'll attempt to repost..

Went to bed Early Last night 11PM.

Thought Irene was going to Fizzel for ILM once it got past Cape Fear...

Woke up @ 4:30AM to HIGH Winds, a Huge Trash bin being rolled down the street, by the wind.... Those things are loud as.....

I know the "eye" Center Of Irene is past..

but LORDY the Winds are howeling, gusting up to almost 65!

Pressure dropped to 979 Millibars?

Dern Duplex is Rumbling and Rockin & Rolling & Shakin..

I'm posting the Radar Image And Graph Captured w/in moments of Each other...

Look at the Wind(s), They are Riseing that high this far away from the center, on the "Backside" Of Irene? It sounds like a jet plane over-head... Wow! Then the Barometric Pressure is fallin that much?

Look hor faw away Irene is, Compared to ILM....

Now Look at the Wind Graph sine Mid-night... Going Steady upwards......

i'll try to post a updated one here in a sec as I'm sure We got some Hurricane gust(s) in the past 20 minutes or so...

Edit, I'm going to try, to haul boogie to the Beach area(s) and see if I can Capture Any good pic(s) footage...

[Cold Rain]

It's windy and rainy. The really big rain is currently situated right along I-95. How is it the big storms always know where highway markers are...like I-95, I-40, Hwy 1, etc.?

[buckeyefan1]

[NCStateMMY]

Took these from my cell this morning, so not the highest quality. A rather large maple tree snapped beside may parent house and took out the line and pole. Fortunately we did not lose power, but everybody east of us is in the dark. Winds are 30-35 MPH, with 45+ gust. Light to moderate rain. Measured 3 inches so far.

Tree down.

[rduwx]

Getting some good wind gusts here in Cary...Hopefully that rain band to our north and northeast will stay together as they rotate around and give us a nice soaking.