Hurricane Irene headed for landfall? How will it impact the Southeast? II-2

[Solak]

Anybody got a good link to an extended radar view? I'd like to view the circulation via radar, since watching the sat loops are somewhat misleading.

Try playing around with this

http://www.intellicast.com/Local/WxMap.aspx?location=DRXX0009&weather=hdRadarSmoothPaletteA

[chapelhillwx]

westward bend showing up on the ruc at the end. even on the 18z gfs . irene bends back into Morehead City from the SSE from 12 to 18 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep....00_s_loop.shtml

Was this bend very close to landfall on the table before? It seems like the westward drifting today has been mainly preventing it from curving too far east before landfall.

[WeatherNC]

Was this bend very close to landfall on the table before? It seems like the westward drifting today has been mainly preventing it from curving too far east before landfall.

Thinking that the actual center fix is with the remnant center, on the NE side of the actual inner max. While it appears an east skip atm, the real larger scale circulation in due north. Going to be an interesting next couple hours, IR seems suspect as to whether or not this is a weakening cyclone making landfall.

[HKY_WX]

Was this bend very close to landfall on the table before? It seems like the westward drifting today has been mainly preventing it from curving too far east before landfall.

It was always possible with the exiting trough. Also HM had an interesting point a few nights ago. He suggested there would be a corresponding height rise preceding the next trough coming into the great lakes.

[packbacker]

Anyone else think this weakens to a tropical storm by the VA state line? Currently it's forecasted as a hurricane till atleast DC.

[WeatherNC]

Anyone else think this weakens to a tropical storm by the VA state line? Currently it's forecasted as a hurricane till atleast DC.

Unsure, but thinking is we will have a strengthening system making landfall in ENC, see loop below...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[chapelhillwx]

Reposted from the main thread....

Just wanted to throw it out there, my work with Rutgers Coastal Ocean Observation Lab, WRF page has been updated.

I have 6km runs based on the nam and gfs for the entire east coast.

I've been messing with the plotting / webpage and didn't expect it to be needed so soon, so hopefully there aren't too many bugs.

http://marine.rutger...u/cool/weather/

Probably not a huge deal considering its experimental status but those wishing for more precip in the Triangle area might want to look at this.

[crossthread]

This the right thread?

Quite breezy here in ILM...

Highest gust(s) up around 50~55

Plenty of rain.

15-20 foot breakers reported @ Oak Island Beaches....

[wake4est]

Dude on CNN said the last recon recorded a 123 mph wind. Anyone verify?

[Cold Rain]

Try playing around with this

http://www.intellica...rSmoothPaletteA

Awesome! Thanks!!

[audioguy3107]

Dude on CNN said the last recon recorded a 123 mph wind. Anyone verify?

I'd probably doubt most obs like that if they're being reported on CNN. I've heard some silly stuff from the major networks in the last couple of days.

[Cold Rain]

Still looks like it's ticking just slightly east of north. !!

[WeatherNC]

Ruh roh...

second band due west of center just lit! Northern one is cooking too!

[packbacker]

Dude on CNN said the last recon recorded a 123 mph wind. Anyone verify?

Not at the surface...,

[Southeast NC]

activity has definately picked up here- both rain and wind- its dark now so its hard to tell but we are getting some pretty nice gusts and the wind is now steady =

[Bozart]

Probably not a huge deal considering its experimental status but those wishing for more precip in the Triangle area might want to look at this.

The sharp cut-off of precip from the Outer Banks eastward makes me think this product has the track displaced west. I suspect Kitty Hawk is in for more than 4 or 5 inches of rain.

But assuming it doesn't have the track displaced all the way back to the Piedmont, it does suggest a rain maximum west of track, which is very interesting. I've been wondering about that possibility.

[WidreMann]

Based on radar and satellite, this thing looks to be moving, or wobbling, almost NE now. Even if it went straight north from it's current position, it'd still be just barely making landfall at MHX. It's hard to see this storm even making the NHC track and I think scraping Hatteras is definitely likely.

[chapelhillwx]

The sharp cut-off of precip from the Outer Banks eastward makes me think this product has the track displaced west. I suspect Kitty Hawk is in for more than 4 or 5 inches of rain.

But assuming it doesn't have the track displaced all the way back to the Piedmont, it does suggest a rain maximum west of track, which is very interesting. I've been wondering about that possibility.

It didn't seem terribly far off in terms of initialization. The link I posted has all sorts of graphics to poke though and see where the track ends up.

[Cold Rain]

Ruh roh...

second band due west of center just lit! Northern one is cooking too!

What's with the Captain Picard face palm?? Haha!

I can't animate with the link you provided earlier. I get an error....something about selecting a posting method. Anyway, it looks better than it did earlier today. It just needs to move west some.

[HKY_WX]

looks like some convection is finally trying to wrap around the south side of the eye. you can see it more clearly on composite radar. let's see if it's a trend or not.

[WeatherNC]

Based on radar and satellite, this thing looks to be moving, or wobbling, almost NE now. Even if it went straight north from it's current position, it'd still be just barely making landfall at MHX. It's hard to see this storm even making the NHC track and I think scraping Hatteras is definitely likely.

ok, so what's up with Topsail, check has already cleared? Current fix is likely with the remnant inner core, which is deteriorating and on the NE side of the larger circulation. Granted the whole SW side of the storm is gone, but IR is improving, dmax coming, along with some warmer sst's.

[WidreMann]

ok, so what's up with Topsail, check has already cleared? Current fix is likely with the remnant inner core, which is deteriorating and on the NE side of the larger circulation. Granted the whole SW side of the storm is gone, but IR is improving, dmax coming, along with some warm sst's.

The recon fixes are even more disappointing. I was looking at the radar. No way it's still moving north, much less NNW. You wanna show me a radar loop where that's happening?

[ECUPiratewx]

Am I looking at old captures or something? Due north of it's current position looks hardly like it's going to be east of MXC...

[Cold Rain]

The recon fixes are even more disappointing. I was looking at the radar. No way it's still moving north, much less NNW. You wanna show me a radar loop where that's happening?

Well at least the experimental rainfall graphic had a lot of pretty colors over you.

[WeatherNC]

The recon fixes are even more disappointing. I was looking at the radar. No way it's still moving north, much less NNW. You wanna show me a radar loop where that's happening?

Sup? You should be use to this by now, come on man!

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2062

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0658 PM CDT FRI AUG 26 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NC

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 262358Z - 270130Z

THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS ROTATING

CELLS MOVE ONSHORE THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE

ISSUED BY 0030Z FOR AREAS ACROSS ERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS.

THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 200 STATUTE

MILES SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH THE OUTER EDGE OF THE RAINSHIELD

ALREADY MOVING INLAND ACROSS ERN NC. WITHIN THE RAINBAND...SEVERAL

ROTATING STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM NEAR CAPE HATTERAS EWD TO ABOUT 100

STATUTE MILES OFFSHORE. THE ENVIRONMENT NORTH OF THE CENTER OF IRENE

IS CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES

ABOVE 40 KT/ AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE /PRECIPITABLE WATER OF GREATER

THAN 2 INCHES. AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR INCREASES GRADUALLY THIS

EVENING...THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ROTATING

STORMS AND TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES SHOULD

REMAIN VERY FOCUSED IN A NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST

AND IN THE CAPE HATTERAS AREA.

..BROYLES.. 08/26/2011

ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM...

LAT...LON 36157575 36127709 35427822 34497882 33757824 34367679

35017532 35947504 36157575

[Jalba]

Good loop to look at.

[jrips27]

Nice to see a lot of posters popping in for Irene. Stay safe!

[WidreMann]

Am I looking at old captures or something? Due north of it's current position looks hardly like it's going to be east of MXC...

I think you have east and west confused.

[WeatherNC]

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST

OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA

COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER

THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE

IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE

AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H...AND A

GUST TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT THE JOHNNY MERCER PIER

IN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RES

[Cold Rain]

AT 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED

NEAR LATITUDE 32.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 77.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING

TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL

MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. ON THE

FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL APPROACH THE COAST

OF NORTH CAROLINA TONIGHT AND PASS NEAR OR OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA

COAST ON SATURDAY. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER

THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND MOVE OVER SOUTHERN NEW

ENGLAND ON SUNDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON

HURRICANE WIND SCALE. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST BEFORE

IRENE REACHES THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. SOME WEAKENING IS

EXPECTED AFTER THAT...BUT IRENE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN A HURRICANE

AS IT MOVES ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY.

IRENE IS A LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND

OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 290 MILES...465 KM.

DURING THE PAST HOUR...A SUSTAINED WIND OF 52 MPH...84 KM/H...AND A

GUST TO 62 MPH...100 KM/H WERE REPORTED AT THE JOHNNY MERCER PIER

IN WRIGHTSVILLE BEACH NORTH CAROLINA.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RES