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Hurricane Irene headed for landfall? How will it impact the Southeast? II-2

Summey

By Summey,
in Southeastern States

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

Exactly, good points. It's why I absolutely *hate* when any significant weather event is in store for the northeast and mid atlantic..because it will be hyped to the Nth degree. I heard Jb last night and this morning and he made it sound like dc, new york, boston, etc will be absolutely destroyed and causalities would be in the millions. It was disgusting and I was yelling the entire time I heard him utter a word because some of his reasoning and explanations for why this storm would be so strong, his forecast track reasoning, and why certain models went one way or another were absolute garbage. He seriously just made crap up.

that is the type i was referring to. i heard jb, and then others echo it and then of course the news people jumped on it. i can understand the need to prepare, but crapola like that is just ridiculous.

the place that is "in the most trouble" is over by our fellow posters in eastern nc. they probably will get the worst of it, and its been barely mentioned

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Dunkman

Dunkman

Posted
Posted

Is it just my eyes or has it started to shift NE? I cant really tell I am thinking it is going to stay west but just cant tell.

I just wait for recon...trying to look at radar when it's 250 miles out or worse, satellite, just makes my head hurt.

Also, the intensity was all hype. The global models aren't good for intensity, and the NHC models are worse. The most reliable intensity models never had it strengthening past a category 3 and had it weakening some prior to landfall. In a world of TV ratings and website hits and subscriptions, however, there is little incentive for anyone to mention anything besides the worst case scenario.

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sctvman

sctvman

Posted
Posted

Definitely it is. All day even here, 175 miles at least from the center, we've had gusts 20-35 MPH, and in the rain bands, gusts over 40. Folly even had a gust of 55. Trees are down in several parts of the area and a few fell on cars, and Folly has been dark all afternoon.

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NEGa

NEGa

Posted
Posted

here is a map of where a few of us are just for scale its 66 miles as the crow flies from my pin to where Josh is.

thanks for posting that, btw. it really helps those of us not as familiar with the details of eastern nc know where people and reports are from. looks like yall are about to start getting into to the thick of things. radar is looking impressive over that way

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ECUPiratewx

ECUPiratewx

Posted
Posted

Yep thats the one....

Nice, I'm not too far from that way either.

Welcome to the board, always great to have another PGV member, and love the name! Take a few minutes when you have time, and update your profile, top left tab down under "Signed in as." Add you location, and even a slick mid-field logo pick if you want.

Unless a serious easterly component materializes over the next couple fixes, this may be coming onshore near Onslow Bay/Swansboro. Jacksonville, New River, Marine Corps Air Station

is at Lat: 34.71 Lon: -77.43 for the reference,

Thanks guys, and not a bad idea at all :D

To add to the "wobble" discussion, I think when Irene's done that wobble it's been much more dramatic and rather obvious. The past several hours have been more of a gradual ever so slight westerly motion. I wouldn't even call it NNW obviously, but every little bit makes a huge difference in the landfall. Very interested to see the update at 5.

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Mark304

Mark304

Posted
Posted

that is the type i was referring to. i heard jb, and then others echo it and then of course the news people jumped on it. i can understand the need to prepare, but crapola like that is just ridiculous.

the place that is "in the most trouble" is over by our fellow posters in eastern nc. they probably will get the worst of it, and its been barely mentioned

It's because of the relatively small population on the NC coast.

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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

Somebody over on one of the main threads said the latest overflight had the eye location at 77 19' west (77.3). It was at 77 29' three hours ago.

Weebles wobble but they don't fall down... 5pm track is right over Beaufort, +RN starting to pick up here again, but the wind is nill. Still in that 24hr cone, but barely...

152238W_sm.gif

HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092011 500 PM EDT FRI AUG 26 2011 THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT FIND ANY HIGHER WINDS AFTER THE RELEASE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. IN FACT...DATA FROM NEAR THE CONCLUSION OF THE FLIGHT SUPPORT A SLIGHT LOWER INITIAL INTENSITY. THE AIRCRAFT DID REPORT HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL AND SFMR WINDS OF 50-55 KT 135 N MI EAST OF THE CENTER...SHOWING THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD. BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND DATA FROM AN EARLIER ASCAT PASS SHOW THAT THE TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD ABOUT 225-250 N MI OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. RECENT MICROWAVE DATA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE INNER CORE HAS ERODED. ALTHOUGH IRENE WILL BE MOVING OVER WARM WATER DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THE LACK OF AN INNER CORE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY RESTRENGTHENING. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST...IRENE COULD WEAKEN JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...IMPACTS FROM THIS LARGE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL NOT BE VERY DIFFERENT IF IT IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR LOW-END HURRICANE. IRENE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS...STORM SURGE FLOODING...AND EXTREMELY HEAVY RAINS ALMOST ANYWHERE FROM EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA NORTHWARD THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. IRENE IS STILL MOVING NORTHWARD OR 360/12 KT. IRENE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND CONTINUE ON THAT HEADING UP THE EAST COAST...AND BE MOVING AT ABOUT 15-17 KT AS IT APPROACHES LONG ISLAND...MUCH SLOWER THAN NORMAL FOR STORMS IN THIS AREA...WHICH WILL PRODUCE EXTENDED PERIODS OF TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS IN MANY AREAS. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY CONSISTENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF IRENE OVER THE LAST SEVERAL CYCLES. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 31.7N 77.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/0600Z 33.4N 77.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 27/1800Z 35.5N 76.3W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 36H 28/0600Z 38.2N 75.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 48H 28/1800Z 41.8N 73.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 29/1800Z 50.5N 65.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 30/1800Z 56.5N 51.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 31/1800Z 58.0N 32.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Colder tops are expanding in coverage near the center, have to be careful with this dry air, as it has been known for cyclones to burp out some hot towers with a bad ingest. Seen it many times, and whether we are talking about a weakening storm coming into ENC vs one on the uptick will go along way in terms of that inner band wind.

GOES20402011238FteEsZ.jpg

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Cold Rain

Cold Rain

Posted
Posted

Not sure about that, could be an illusion as the radar seems to indicate a N motion and even NNW. Visible and IR satellite can play tricks on us when there is no visible eye like right now. Still looks NNW to N to me.

Yeah, I just looked at the sat/wv/uv loops. I didn't look at the radar. That's probably a better idea. But I did see that the position given by the last obs data show it a tick farther East. As someone said earlier, the NHC track really wants to turn this NNE at any second. If it continues North or even a smidge NNW, it will bring the cyclone outside of their cone.

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Dunkman

Dunkman

Posted
Posted

That's a pretty lame disco IMO... much like the media, talking about Long Island and New England, while NC is the immediate threat. I was expecting some discussion about the dry air and how it may/may not be impeding the storm.

I'll rip off a sentence from Jeff Masters blog this afternoon to talk about the potential impacts that imo didn't really come out in the NHC disco:

At 3:30 pm EDT this afternoon, a wind analysis from NOAA/HRD (Figure 2) indicated that the potential storm surge damage from Irene still rated a 5.0 on a scale of 0 to 6. This is equivalent to the storm surge a typical Category 4 hurricane would have.
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WeatherNC

WeatherNC

Posted
Posted

That's a pretty lame disco IMO... much like the media, talking about Long Island and New England, while NC is the immediate threat. I was expecting some discussion about the dry air and how it may/may not be impeding the storm.

Yeah, I agree Solak, but the understanding of these inner physics are far from certain. I have seen several instances where dry air ingest can cook a pretty hawt CDO quickly, granted they are rare, but remember a system making landfall in TX, near Houston, that was the case, forget the name. IR looks ok, the last mw scan not so much, but a bad gulp could put up some porn quick. Not saying it is going to happen, but the next 6 hrs it needs to be monitored. Still thinking Emerald Isle, around 10am

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shaggy

shaggy

Posted
Posted

NHC sticking to their track despite the further west and more northerly track over the last 6 hours. Still banking on that NNE movement to commence right now I guess. Every hour it moves along 77.4 the further west the affects of the hurricane will stretch. Not liking the weakening trend but intensity is the hardest part of the NHC's job it seems. The errors are often substantial in that regards. Like Irene ramping up to a cane way before she was forecasted to do.

I'd be lying if i said i didn't want to see hurricane force gusts here but I have my doubts this will occur.

5pm track has closest approach about 45 miles ESE of me.

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Solak

Solak

Posted
Posted

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)

Transmitted: 26th day of the month at 21:17Z

Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.

Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 308)

Storm Number & Year: 09L in 2011

Storm Name: Irene (flight in the North Atlantic basin)

Mission Number: 29

Observation Number: 04

A. Time of Center Fix: 26th day of the month at 20:38:40Z

B. Center Fix Coordinates: 31°36'N 77°19'W (31.6N 77.3167W)

B. Center Fix Location: 177 miles (284 km) to the ESE (118°) from Charleston, SC, USA.

C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,665m (8,743ft) at 700mb

D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph)

E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 56 nautical miles (64 statute miles) to the WSW (240°) of center fix

F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 331° at 77kts (From the NNW at ~ 88.6mph)

G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 79 nautical miles (91 statute miles) to the SW/WSW (236°) of center fix

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 950mb (28.05 inHg)

I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 11°C (52°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,048m (10,000ft)

J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 15°C (59°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,053m (10,016ft)

K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 2°C (36°F)

K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available

L. Eye Character: Not Available

M. Eye Shape: Not Available

N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature

N. Fix Level: 700mb

O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles

O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...

Maximum Wind Outbound: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:59:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 91kts (~ 104.7mph) in the northeast quadrant at 20:59:30Z

Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 12 nautical miles (14 statute miles) to the SW (229°) from the flight level center

Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...

INBOUND PK FL WNDS SW QUAD 78 KTS AT 79 NM RADIUS AND SECONDARY PEAK 76 KTS AT 36 NM

ONE INNER EYEWALL FRAGMENT NE QUAD WITHIN 12 NM OF FIX

PEAK WINDS FOUND IN OUTER RAINBAND 34 NM TO THE NE

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