Hurricane Irene headed for landfall? How will it impact the Southeast? II-2

[RevDodd]

Since it matters more to the folks here than in the main thread, I'll ask y'all:

Is there anything beyond the model insistence that look like it would erode the western ridge sooner than later? I know the second trough was originally to be the culprit, but wondering if a larger Irene might add reinforcement, and therefore a continued northern, path for the storm.

I know this doesn't matter to the folks waiting to see if Irene hits New York or Boston, but the difference in that jog to the NNE would be big for our Down East folks.

[NEGa]

Would be something if it fizzles out before hitting land after all this hype.

i agree with this one lol. i remember the gloria that wasnt as well for nyc. this storm has been hyped like the mid atl and ne will be blown and flooded away. i realize it could happen (and strengthen) but so far this storm has been like most of the others hyped the last couple of years. (if it does strengthen and hit the mid atlantic or ne and cause damage i will take this comment back)

Once again the hype of the computer models is so much more than the actual storm. It's the same, whether it be hurricanes or snow.

Are you seriously going to complain about it not being strong enough to ruin cities? You are too much dude.

i dont think the complaint is it not going to destroy a city. the issue is, once again, the enormous hype from the 24/7 news outlets. they make it sound like the end of the world. just like the extreme heat, tornadoes, etc. is it any wonder the public becomes complacent when warnings are issued? the extreme solutions rarely happen, which is why they are extreme.

the hype on this one has been way out there the last couple of days

now for NC i agree it could be bad, but for farther up the coast probably not the doomsday scenario most people seem to think will happen.

the west and sw part look of irene pretty bland at the moment on the radar images (yes it could strengthen) but if it stays the course, then those west (near 95) will get some wind and rains, but not the storm this was hyped to be. the coast could be getting blasted (immediate coast) and major cities missing most of it.

WeatherNC posted a great animation image in the other thread, and it looks like the western edge has really been eaten away by drier air (which looks to be swirling deeper into the eastern part of the system as well).

[feloniousq]

i agree with this one lol. i remember the gloria that wasnt as well for nyc. this storm has been hyped like the mid atl and ne will be blown and flooded away. i realize it could happen (and strengthen) but so far this storm has been like most of the others hyped the last couple of years. (if it does strengthen and hit the mid atlantic or ne and cause damage i will take this comment back)

i dont think the complaint is it not going to destroy a city. the issue is, once again, the enormous hype from the 24/7 news outlets. they make it sound like the end of the world. just like the extreme heat, tornadoes, etc. is it any wonder the public becomes complacent when warnings are issued? the extreme solutions rarely happen, which is why they are extreme.

the hype on this one has been way out there the last couple of days

now for NC i agree it could be bad, but for farther up the coast probably not the doomsday scenario most people seem to think will happen.

the west and sw part look of irene pretty bland at the moment on the radar images (yes it could strengthen) but if it stays the course, then those west (near 95) will get some wind and rains, but not the storm this was hyped to be. the coast could be getting blasted (immediate coast) and major cities missing most of it.

WeatherNC posted a great animation image in the other thread, and it looks like the western edge has really been eaten away by drier air (which looks to be swirling deeper into the eastern part of the system as well).

To be fair the media can't win. If they underhype or ignore a storm that turns out bad, they get castigated by the politicians. (See Raleigh Mayor Meeker after the famous 0.5" ice paralysis - the blame wasn't placed on the dummies that laid the salt down too early, it was on the weathermen).

A nice side effect is that hype = ratings.

[Cold Rain]

Look at the last couple frames in the mw graphic I posted above, it updates in real time. Note a strong signal that a large inner max is trying to close off on the sw side, and the small remnant old core within the larger center, think we could be about to see a window of intensification. Only took me about 30 minutes to do a 180 on that, just goes to show us how little we understand about the internal physics and mechanics of these things.

Yep, I see that now. Finally made it home and can now look at images. It does look like it might be getting its act together one more time. We'll see if it has another wobble or two back west before it's all said and done. NWS Raleigh issued a Wind Advisory for Wake. High Wind Warnings are in effect just east.

[HKY_WX]

I see no atmospheric variables that will impede it from going through another strengthening phase. It may not happen due to the dynamics of the eyewall, etc. However, there is a nice patch of higher TCHP SST's from where it presently to just offshore ILM. There is also no precipitable dry air over the southeast and the trough has left Irene behind to meander N. So shear is not a major factor either. There has also been a noticeable bend to the NNW this morning which was always possible given the trough lifting out. From this point I see a general N track making landfall just west of Morehead city and heading up the sounds. It is possible IMO this system never bends that much to the NE and takes the northeast out of the game. It could easily continue mainly north through the NC coastal plain and tidewater area of VA.

[superjames1992]

No. I am glad it is not as strong. Now, snow is a different story. I am just saying the computer models are so nonreliable. It's like the little boy crying wolf all the time.

Contrary to popular belief, forecasting skill has dramatically increased since 1980 (particularly in the southern hemisphere). The computer models are much better than they used to be.

[downeastnc]

I see no atmospheric variables that will impede it from going through another strengthening phase. It may not happen due to the dynamics of the eyewall, etc. However, there is a nice patch of higher TCHP SST's from where it presently to just offshore ILM. There is also no precipitable dry air over the southeast and the trough has left Irene behind to meander N. So shear is not a major factor either. There has also been a noticeable bend to the NNW this morning which was always possible given the trough lifting out. From this point I see a general N track making landfall just west of Morehead city and heading up the sounds. It is possible IMO this system never bends that much to the NE and takes the northeast out of the game. It could easily continue mainly north through the NC coastal plain and tidewater area of VA.

Agree I just dont see anything thats gonna kick it east, it seems perfectly happy to ride right up between 77-78W. Due to the way the SE NC coast is shaped a 30 mile wide eye could put Topsail/Jacksonville all the way up to Bogue Inlet in the western eyewall and then smack Emerald Isle ( the entire island is like 27 miles wide) with the north eyewall and then destroy MHX/Beaufort etc in the northeast/east eyewall and do this pretty much all at the same time. Then if this thing doesnt go over the sounds and goes up Hwy 17ish New Bern, Washington, Greenville, Kinston, EC etc all in the eyewall as well. I think this is prolly the least likely outcome at the moment but every tick west of north it goes the more likely it becomes.

[deltadog03]

Im sorry....but, until this changes its not gonna start moving NNE (not saying its going west or anything like that, but a NNW to N movement should continue)...Morehead City looks like the place to be for landfall....IMO....

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm5&zoom=&time=

[Lookout]

why do some people seemingly root for a cat 3, 4, or 5 storm to hit the coast? It really is ok to be a cat 3, 4, or 5 storm over the open waters and then it really is ok for it to be a cat 1 when it comes ashore. Enjoy the visibles and strength when it's over the shipping lanes, not coming toward people that literally can't get out of its path.

Please do not bring up the "morality" of wanting or not wanting strong hurricanes in this thread. It's not the place for it and it belongs in the banter thread.

[NCStateMMY]

Looking at the radar loop, looks like covection is starting to fire up in the outer bands.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

[downeastnc]

Looking at the radar loop, looks like covection is starting to fire up in the outer bands.

http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/southeast_loop.php

Yeah sky outside here is insane and just like it usually looks when we get these really tropical onshore flows, this morning was also pretty much the calm before the storm, actually felt cool and a bit dry then 4 hrs later we got tropical skys with downpours lol.

[buckeyefan1]

It looks like the last center fix is slightly to the west

[Gastonwxman]

Despite my location, I can sort of "feel" Irene through constant easterly breezes and see the clouds thicken as well. She's really expanded herself ever since her trip through the Bahamas.

[Lookout]

i agree with this one lol. i remember the gloria that wasnt as well for nyc. this storm has been hyped like the mid atl and ne will be blown and flooded away. i realize it could happen (and strengthen) but so far this storm has been like most of the others hyped the last couple of years. (if it does strengthen and hit the mid atlantic or ne and cause damage i will take this comment back)

It's pretty clear why it's been hyped to death..it's because the center of the weather world, the mid atlantic and northeast will be hit. Everything that hits there is the end of the world, the worst case scenario, etc. Those of us on these boards know this all too well. Countless times more significant weather has been ignored in other parts of the country if something even minor is going on in the northeast. 11 years and counting I've watched this on these boards and I don't ever expect it to change.

Plus it gives public officials a chance to act like they are in command and trying their best to gain credibility from it. I don't think there is any other better example than the mayor of new york having that press conference with about 10 people behind him so that it makes him seem so in charge and important. It's nauseating at times that's for sure.

Finally, it's all about the ratings and money for these media outlets. The more they hype a storm the higher their ratings and more they can charge for advertising.

I'm not saying this won't be a significant weather event in the northeast/mid atlantic..it certainly will. The flooding issue is especially worrisome due to how much rain they have had in recent weeks. But the cities aren't going to be blown away like the media would have you believe.

i dont think the complaint is it not going to destroy a city. the issue is, once again, the enormous hype from the 24/7 news outlets. they make it sound like the end of the world. just like the extreme heat, tornadoes, etc. is it any wonder the public becomes complacent when warnings are issued? the extreme solutions rarely happen, which is why they are extreme.

the hype on this one has been way out there the last couple of days

now for NC i agree it could be bad, but for farther up the coast probably not the doomsday scenario most people seem to think will happen.

the west and sw part look of irene pretty bland at the moment on the radar images (yes it could strengthen) but if it stays the course, then those west (near 95) will get some wind and rains, but not the storm this was hyped to be. the coast could be getting blasted (immediate coast) and major cities missing most of it.

Exactly, good points. It's why I absolutely *hate* when any significant weather event is in store for the northeast and mid atlantic..because it will be hyped to the Nth degree. I heard Jb last night and this morning and he made it sound like dc, new york, boston, etc will be absolutely destroyed and causalities would be in the millions. It was disgusting and I was yelling the entire time I heard him utter a word because some of his reasoning and explanations for why this storm would be so strong, his forecast track reasoning, and why certain models went one way or another were absolute garbage. He seriously just made crap up.

Anywho, this storm, although large, just doesn't look like it wants to get it's act together at all. I know its had some minor shear the last few days but It's had chance after chance and won't reach it's full potential. It's interesting that some storms can explode even under less than ideal conditions (far worse than this one) while other storms can't even under good conditions.

The IR images and radar look like total garbage with respect to the inner core or what you want to call the eyewall. If the eyewall was in even halfway decent shape, we should be seeing the tops of the convection on radar by now. Instead it looks like a 200 mile wide empty void. In fact, I'm not sure I have ever seen such a huge circulation with so little good convection at it's center. It's pretty remarkable in that respect.

[Brick Tamland]

LInk to a site with the live video briefings at the top of the hour from the NHC.

http://abclocal.go.com/wtvd/feature?section=weather&id=6665576

[HWY316wx]

Strictly looking at the Sat. loop I can begin to see the eye, what looks to be opening up, but no where nearly as defined when she was down in the Bahamas.

[buckeyefan1]

Still a tick west of north

2:00 PM EDT Fri Aug 26

Location: 31.2°N 77.5°W

Max sustained: 100 mph

Moving: N at 14 mph

Min pressure: 951 mb

[Brick Tamland]

It's pretty clear why it's been hyped to death..it's because the center of the weather world, the mid atlantic and northeast will be hit. Everything that hits there is the end of the world, the worst case scenario, etc. Those of us on these boards know this all too well. Countless times more significant weather has been ignored in other parts of the country if something even minor is going on in the northeast. 11 years and counting I've watched this on these boards and I don't ever expect it to change.

Plus it gives public officials a chance to act like they are in command and trying their best to gain credibility from it. I don't think there is any other better example than the mayor of new york having that press conference with about 10 people behind him so that it makes him seem so in charge and important. It's nauseating at times that's for sure.

Finally, it's all about the ratings and money for these media outlets. The more they hype a storm the higher their ratings and more they can charge for advertising.

I'm not saying this won't be a significant weather event in the northeast/mid atlantic..it certainly will. The flooding issue is especially worrisome due to how much rain they have had in recent weeks. But the cities aren't going to be blown away like the media would have you believe.

The problem with hyping the most extreme case of the models is when it doesn't happen, which it usually does not 90% of the time, then people start to tune out and think the media and weather folks are crying wolf. So when a real extreme event does happen, people don't pay attention and get caught off guard. I just wish the models were more realiable.

[HKY_WX]

Agree I just dont see anything thats gonna kick it east, it seems perfectly happy to ride right up between 77-78W. Due to the way the SE NC coast is shaped a 30 mile wide eye could put Topsail/Jacksonville all the way up to Bogue Inlet in the western eyewall and then smack Emerald Isle ( the entire island is like 27 miles wide) with the north eyewall and then destroy MHX/Beaufort etc in the northeast/east eyewall and do this pretty much all at the same time. Then if this thing doesnt go over the sounds and goes up Hwy 17ish New Bern, Washington, Greenville, Kinston, EC etc all in the eyewall as well. I think this is prolly the least likely outcome at the moment but every tick west of north it goes the more likely it becomes.

Yea I think you're going to get hit hard. GO get your milk and bread!

[Moose4]

It's pretty clear why it's been hyped to death..it's because the center of the weather world, the mid atlantic and northeast will be hit. Everything that hits there is the end of the world, the worst case scenario, etc. Those of us on these boards know this all too well. Countless times more significant weather has been ignored in other parts of the country if something even minor is going on in the northeast. 11 years and counting I've watched this on these boards and I don't ever expect it to change.

Plus it gives public officials a chance to act like they are in command and trying their best to gain credibility from it. I don't think there is any other better example than the mayor of new york having that press conference with about 10 people behind him so that it makes him seem so in charge and important. It's nauseating at times that's for sure.

Finally, it's all about the ratings and money for these media outlets. The more they hype a storm the higher their ratings and more they can charge for advertising.

I'm not saying this won't be a significant weather event in the northeast/mid atlantic..it certainly will. The flooding issue is especially worrisome due to how much rain they have had in recent weeks. But the cities aren't going to be blown away like the media would have you believe.

I am honestly a lot more worried about the folks Down East here in NC than I am about the ones up in NYC, although the flooding up there is certainly going to be noticeable, and NYC is prudently evacuating folks from low-lying areas and the beach islands out in Queens. Nobody seems to be noticing that Irene will still almost certainly be at least a Cat 1 storm when, assuming the tracks hold up, it chugs up the sound and runs right over top of Norfolk and Virginia Beach. A million and a half or more people in Tidewater smack in the gunsights of this thing and it's all "ZOMG NEW YORK MIGHT GET TWO FEET OF SURGE." I hope the folks in the mid-Atlantic and parts north are hunkered down and prepared for Irene, but you're right, the all-NYC-all-the-time does get a bit old when you know what this storm could do here regionally.

[Brick Tamland]

If this keeps going west a bit, would it give it more time to get stronger?

[downeastnc]

Yea I think you're going to get hit hard. GO get your milk and bread!

Nah I will be in the Lowe's parking lot near my folks home getting wind obs, we usually ride them out there since there are lots of big trees close but not to close to the house makes for some great video and its a daytime hit too WOOOOHOOOOO....

On the downside my I am a groomsman in my brother-in-laws wedding tonight at 7 pm so it wont be till after then I get my crap together and I most likely wont go to my parents home until 6-7am I figure worst here on the current timeline will be 10-4 tomorrow

here is a map of where a few of us are just for scale its 66 miles as the crow flies from my pin to where Josh is.

[HKY_WX]

Nah I will be in the Lowe's parking lot near my folks home getting wind obs, we usually ride them out there since there are lots of big trees close but not to close to the house makes for some great video and its a daytime hit too WOOOOHOOOOO....

On the downside my I am a groomsman in my brother-in-laws wedding tonight at 7 pm so it wont be till after then I get my crap together and I most likely wont go to my parents home until 6-7am I figure worst here on the current timeline will be 10-4 tomorrow

here is a map of where a few of us are just for scale its 66 miles as the crow flies from my pin to where Josh is.

Sounds like a good time from a fellow weather weenie! I was too young to remember much of Hugo, but would love to experience something like it again. Take some good video for us westies!

[Moose4]

Sorry with my previous post, I got a bit ranty.

Does anyone have (or have a link to) a precip forecast through tomorrow? A bit curious what the latest estimates are as to how much rain Irene will drop. I know there's still the potential for wild variance depending on storm speed and track.

[POWERSTROKE]

I have a friend that was at Morehead City on business supposedly until Monday but had to leave. He said it was a sight to see as he has never been around a hurricane

[downeastnc]

The NHC must really believe in that NE turn cause every update they shift the intial plot west then promptly but the next plot east of north.

At 5 am this was the 12 plot 12H 26/1800Z 31.0N 77.2W

current plot Location: 31.2°N 77.5°W

So its faster than progged by a good 3 hrs and at this rate its going to be a half a degree west at least.

[Brick Tamland]

It looks like it is taken more of a westerly path in the last update. Seems it would need a big move east to take the path forecasted here.

[Moose4]

It looks like it is taken more of a westerly path in the last update. Seems it would need a big move east to take the path forecasted here.

I don't think Irene is looking at the models and understanding quite what she's supposed to be doing right now. I know these storms wobble a lot, but for the past 6-9 hours, all her "wobbles" have been slightly westward.

[Brick Tamland]

Yeah, she would have to make a good crossover move to get back on that projected path.

[RevDodd]

NOGAPS, anyone?

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cgi-bin/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_troplant&dtg=2011082612∏=z502τ=018&set=Tropical